http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1476526

EXCEEDED LIMIT OF 2500 POST, HINDSIGHT IS 20/20, DO MOVE FORWARD
obama speeches r great! alwiz market goes down one
ok, guys & gals, the topic is now belong to u
all those who likes to ask FAQ questions such as brokers, commission & etc. pls refer to earlier version & those prior to it

good good, finally a new version.

Reporting in (even though I don't dabble in US stocks )

After all, what happens in the US affects the rest of the world.

Dow at -331 now ............. will there be a double dip? Will Unker Ben save us? Time will tell

WTH

My DDM 9% gain whip out in 2 trading days

Dow 10992.13 -303.68 -2.69%
Nasdaq 2467.99 -61.15 -2.42%
S&P500 1154.23 -31.67 -2.67%

The bears win this week!

Got to be real cautious next week.. the band is getting tight here and swing trade needs to be fast
to take profit before it makes its move. After closing out some of my short positions, I'm 2/3 long, 1/3 short now.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Sep 10 2011, 09:25 AM

Mind to share how you 2/3 long, 1/3 short?

In my trading portfolio, I have approx 65% in long positions, approx. 35% in short positions.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Sep 10 2011, 09:44 AM

Obama payroll tax plan kinda checkmate the GOP.

Giving more incentives to the poor. And Fed Ben QE 3.

Time for long , right ?

That plan is more or less the same thing like the 1st stimulus (800bln) that was poured into the economy. More than half of them are entitlements programs which didn't go anywhere. So, this is half of the 1st.. IMO, and yet, didn't really address specific how it will help spur job growth because there's that entitlement for unemployment benefits again.

This is going to be tough sell for the Republican house unless he can show he can do it without increasing the deficit.

I like see it dives a little lower before I go 100% long.. that's why I'm hedging with some shorts now.

Obama speech looks like good news, sounds like good news

But market tank 3%

My long position totally got killed

Don't worry, it will go back up.. just be patience.
We're still in trading range: 1100 to 1250

Hopefully, you're long BELOW 1250. Otherwise it's going take some time.

We are only 400 points away from the Aug 9 low

Once it is violated

The bears going to get rampage

Impacted by Euro mah.

US exports are growing , the plus factor.

China may want to open up factories ( FDI ) in US.

Obama sold the idea to China but is not pushing hard on that. Too many laws in US for stopping FDI flowing in the country.

Just my view.

It will be meritorious to do some compilation as thread starter.

Nasuada.

Its US's jackpot if china really did FDI in US. Creating jobs and pumping some money into their horrendous economy. I wonder what's the law hindering the Chinese?

Nasuada.

Found this site with TA analysis.

www.stockta.com

US is one country with 2 Governments

Later may become North and South Korea.

Obama is fighting a cival war with the Congress now.

Do not think US has any promotional packages for FDI right now.

Actually, it is much easier for foreign companies to invest in US than for US companies to invest in China.

In China (just like Malaysia), if you're multinational, you're forced to partner with the local company and
you need to share your technology. The Chinese govt is very discriminatory in offering contracts to companies and most of the time favor domestic companies. But, they do make it easier for companies to setup factories for manufacturing goods that are to be exported but make it difficult to sell to the Chinese consumers.

In US, you don't have to do that. Chinese companies can start and grab market share if they're capable because they have to same level of playing field. Maybe the exclusion portion that US govt contracts are related to military supplier - those must be US based companies.

For foreign companies, the only hurdles are the costs are high because labour, health care and taxes. The taxes actually varies because different states (there 50 states) offer different incentives for foreign companies. Some states now offer up to 2 years of tax free status. Again, it isn't so much of the Fed govt offering FDI incentives. Each states are independently competing for FDI and they have their own.

---

Added on September 11, 2011, 1:05 amDefinitely.. that's why got to watch that level. If it breaks.. just close eye and short till the next support level.
IMO, Europe is going to that troublemaker who will cause the major bulls mass suicide over the cliff.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Sep 11 2011, 01:06 AM

1. determine what type of trader you are
http://www.tharptradertest.com/default.aspx?question=1

2. books for reading
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=538473&hl=

3. seminars
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=1670965&hl=

4. hedge fund
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=1727398&hl=

5. index fund
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=1266690&hl=

6. fair value
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1627421

7. warren buffet http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=1738276&hl=

I am curious, 99% lyn forumers worship warren buffet. But, then I ask did they follow sifu to invest in usa or berkshire itself. They run away and stick to bolehland. Bunch of hypocrites! When any of his lovers mention and idolizes him again or his books.

I just want to know. Have you all been able to put theory into practice and enjoy the moolah? Nothing to hide, they need to show their master is great and their own performance will speak for itself

I use technical analysis and my year 2011 klse performance +392% my target is +500%, miss by 108%. oh well, better than be IIVC
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1678458/+120 Post #137 last updated position +157%
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/2039094/+1060?hl=bimb Post #1067 bimb +50%
http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/1764184/+1180 Post #1197 early yr2011 +185%

8. many moons ago debate on TA vs FA
http://forum.lowyat.net/index.php?showtopic=708693&hl=

9. portfolios of the giants
http://stockpickr.com/list/mostviewed/1/

10. I spent 1,XXX reading FA from Warren Buffet and my portfolio move as fast as a siput after that, spent 1X,XXX to learn TA from my sifu William Wermine http://www.tradethetruth.com/ and my 1XX,XXX portfolio went bust I then sit back and contemplate what went wrong, reread up Bill books, notes, did trial and error subscribing to USA website and voila The journey of a thousand miles began with a single step. Failure and tuition fees by the stock market itself is your best teacher http://pdfreebooks.org/0-tradeinstocks.htm Learning to detach my emotions and taking the time to understand and make the comparison between theory and practice from Jesse Livermore book did it for me Remember to share the knowledge and do not charge anything Pit your skills, live and real time against others, put it to the real world economic cycle test and rejoice as I crush my competitors
Kilgore in Apocalypse Now : I love the smell of napalm in the morning http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sBksHaTQCbU You can do it too

11. Steven Jobs was asked to give the 2005 commencement speech at Stanford.

In that address, delivered after Mr. Jobs was told he had cancer but before it was clear that it would ultimately claim his life, Mr. Jobs told his audience that “death is very likely the single best invention of life. It is life’s change agent.”

The benefit of death, he said, is you know not to waste life living someone else’s choices.

“Don’t let the noise of others’ opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition.”

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/With-Time-Ru...9&asset=&ccode=

12. Traders often pass through a series of 5 stages before becoming successful. In order, these are:

i. Unconscious Incompetence- Brand new traders enter at this stage, full of excitement and overconfidence that they will amass riches overnight. “How hard could it be? Price either goes up or down, right?” one may ask. The trader funds his account and starts quickly, taking lots of trades and unknowingly take on lots of risk. After a few initial successes, he is disappointed that price somehow turns on him every time he enters and he subsequently takes revenge by doubling up on new trades.

ii. Conscious Competence- After realizing how out of touch with the reality and danger of the market he was, the trader progresses to the next stage and sets out to educate himself by buying loads of systems, ebooks, and courses, searching for the “holy grail.” The trader seeks advice and entry signals from other traders in forums who brag about their earnings and wonders why it’s not him.

iii. The “Eureka” Moment- At this stage the trader finally realizes that it’s not necessarily the system that’s causing him to lose money, and that even a simple system that is based on how the market works and has a predictable edge can make money, so long as emotions are under control and the trader practices good money management. Once the trader realizes this, he/she can stop caring about what others are saying or trading and stick to one system. The trader executes trades with discipline every time an opportunity comes and doesn’t get disappointed by individual losses as it’s now a certainty that this type of trading will result in a profit over the long run. The light at the end of the tunnel is now visible.

iv. Conscious Competence- At the fourth stage the trader now makes trades whenever the system instructs him to, and the trader is fully accepting the risk involved. The trader furthermore cuts losses short and gets out with discipline when things get hairy in the market. Although it’s not quite second nature yet, he knows what it takes to be profitable and now manages to break-even.

v. Unconscious Competence- Finally the trader has achieved victory! He has become so used to trading that it’s become natural. The trader is now able to pick really big trades and hold on to big winners with confidence. Furthermore, he has mastered his emotions and is now profitable.

Source from internet



13. Jesse Livermore Gems

a) http://www.jesse-livermore.net/chapter1.php

Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can't be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I've never forgotten that. I suppose I really manage to remember when and how it happened. The fact that I remember that way is my way of capitalizing experience.

The fluctuations were from the first associated in my mind with upward or downward movements. Of course there is always a reason for fluctuations, but the tape does not concern itself with the why and wherefore. It doesn't go into explanations. I didn't ask the tape why when I was fourteen, and I don't ask it today, at forty. The reason for what a certain stock does today may not be known for two or three days, or weeks, or months. But what the dickens does that matter? Your business with the tape is now -- not tomorrow. The reason can wait. But you must act instantly or be left. Time and again I see this happen.

b) http://www.tischendorf.com/2009/06/29/over...ks-performance/

Resistance level

c) http://books.google.com.my/books?id=6eyy4P...epage&q&f=false

IIVC (Involuntary Investor Club Membership)

d) http://books.google.com.my/books?id=ldJiR5...epage&q&f=false

The market is operating in future time. It has usually factored in current events

e) http://books.google.com.my/books?id=fvt8DU...epage&q&f=false

The big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend...Old Turkey was dead right in doing and saying what he did. He had not only the courage of his convictions but the intelligent patience to sit tight.

f) http://www.tischendorf.com/2009/07/02/jess...-a-bull-market/

Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very
level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money.

g) http://books.google.com.my/books?id=fvt8DU...epage&q&f=false

That is about all I had learned, to study general conditions, to take a position and stick to it. I can wait without a twinge of impatience. I can see a setback without being shaken, knowing that it is only temporary. I have been short one hundred thousand shares and I have seen a big rally coming. I have figured, and figured correctly, that such a rally as I felt was inevitable, and even wholesome, would make a difference of one million dollars in my paper profits.

And I nevertheless have stood pat and seen half my paper profit wiped out, without once considering the advisability of covering my shorts to put them out again on the rally, I knew that if I did, I might lose my position and with it the certainty of a big killing. It is the big swing that makes the big money for you. If I learned all this so slowly, it was because I learned by my mistakes, and some time always elapses between making a mistake and realizing it, and more time between realizing it and exactly determining it.

h) http://constellation1976.blogspot.com/2009...and-trends.html

Sucker

i) http://books.google.com.my/books?id=fvt8DU...epage&q&f=false

Syndicate

j) http://books.google.com.my/books?id=6eyy4P...epage&q&f=false

Not uncommon for stocks to suddenly spike up in a straight shot with heavy volume and then stop, roll at the top, exhausted

k) http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_03/h...on083003pv.html

Jesse Livermore timeless advise withstands the test of time

l) The Timeless Wisdom Of Jesse Livermore

Why is stock investing hard? Take a step back to think, and you realize that stock trading is the intersection of many realms of knowledge. Business. The economy. Finance. Innovation and technology. Government policy. The market. And don’t forget psychology. The more an investor knows about each of these fields, the more likely he or she will excel in the task of buying and selling stocks properly.

In the field of psychology alone, you have multiple topics to ponder. The psychology of the herd is important. So is the psychology of the self. Jesse Livermore, whose life spanned the 19th and 20th centuries, didn’t get a master’s degree in macro economics or a Ph.D. in cognitive behavior. But his experience, hard work, failures and successes across many bull and bear cycles make him one of the most respected stock and futures traders of all time.

Livermore grew up poor in Massachusetts. He found his calling after discovering he had a knack for numbers and for seeing price trends. Trading firms called “bucket shops” across the country kicked him out after he amassed profits despite stringent house rules in margin. He eventually became a powerful buyer and short-seller on Wall Street. Tragically, a self-inflicted bullet ended Livermore’s life on Nov. 28, 1940. But his book “How to Trade in tocks” remains a gem. As the following quotes from the first chapter “The Challenge of Speculation,” show, he defined genius in trading psychology.

Why not let Livermore’s wisdom help you?.“Profits take care of themselves, but losses never do. The speculator has to insure himself against considerable losses by taking the first small loss.” Your insurance policy: Sell a stock if it falls 8% from your purchase price. No questions, no exceptions. Nobody will care if you sold at a loss. The market surely won’t. “Successful speculation is anything but a mere guess. To be consistently successful, an investor or speculator must have rules to guide him.”

“Speculators in stock markets have lost money. But I believe it is a safe statement that the money lost by speculation alone is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by so-called investors who have let their investments ride. From my viewpoint, the investors are the big gamblers. They make a bet, stay with it, and if it goes wrong, they lose it all.”

Livermore offers a few examples. On April 28, 1902, New Haven & Hartford Railroad sold at $255 a share. On Jan. 2, 1940, it traded at $0.50. Chicago Northwestern went from $240 in January 1906 to “5/16, which is about $0.31 per share” on Jan. 2, 1940. Nearly 70 years later, some of America’s biggest banks took similar paths.

“A few thoughts should be kept uppermost in mind. One is: Never sell a stock, because it seems high priced. You may watch the stock go from 10 to 50 and decide it is selling at too high a level. That is the time to determine what is to prevent it from starting at 50 and going to 150 under favorable earning conditions and good corporate management.”

“One other point: It is foolhardy to make a second trade, if your first trade shows you a loss. Never average losses. Let that thought be written indelibly upon your mind.” “It may surprise many to know that in my method of trading, when I see by my records that an upward trend is in progress, I become a buyer as soon as a stock makes a new high on its movement, after having had a normal reaction. The same applies whenever I take the short side. Why? Because I am following the trend at the time. My records signal me to go ahead!” Jesse Livermore

14. “Don’t try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can’t be done except by liars.” That said, Baruch said that through all of his time and research, he would develop a “feel” for when it was time to reduce positions. “I made my money by selling too soon.”

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/2008/06...bernard-baruch/

If a speculator is correct half of the time, he is hitting a good average. Even being right 3 or 4 times out of 10 should yield a person a fortune if he has the sense to cut his losses quickly on the ventures where he is wrong. Quotation of Bernard Baruch

http://www.icelebz.com/quotes/bernard_baruch/

15. Treasuries and Bonds ETF

http://forum.lowyat.net/topic/741185/+1060?hl=agz Post #1071

16. Nicolas Darvas was a renaissance man. Literate and athletic, he was good at a wide range of activities. He trained to be an economist at the University of Budapest. He earned a living at occupations as disparate as creating crossword puzzles and sports writing. He played championship pingpong. He toured Europe and the U.S. as one of the world’s highest paid ballroom dancers, book publisher Lyle Stuart noted in the preface of one of Darvas’ works.

Darvas’ most enduring feat was conquering Wall Street — in his spare time. Still dancing full-time, he parlayed a $3,000 bet on a speculative Canadian mining stock into a series of investments that culminated in a $2.25 million portfolio. That success earned him a profile in Time magazine. His 1960 book, “How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market,” was a best-seller. It still pops up on reading lists for investors. Darvas’ book is notable for its skepticism about Wall Street’s conventional wisdom.

He wrote in a later book titled “Wall Street: The Other Las Vegas”: “Wall Street is nothing more than a huge gambling casino, bristling with dealers, croupiers and touts on one side and winners and suckers on the other. . . . I had been a winner and was determined to stay one.” He stayed one through his discovery of a strategy based on patterns formed by share prices. It was a strategythat involved no recommendations from analysts or brokers, no hot tips, no financial stories.

The crux of his strategy was price and volume data. Darvas (1920-77) developed what he called his box theory. As some stocks climb, their share prices stay within a range. Some break through the bottom of that range — or box — and are less likely to rally much soon. Others rise and set up a new, higher box. As soon as a stock climbed to start a higher box, Darvas liked to buy. Gradually he realized that institutional support from big money on Wall Street helped keep top-performing stocks from falling out of their boxes. What his strategy boiled down to was capitalizing on winning stocks’ price gains.

That approach would be familiar to investors who use and know the importance of charting stock patterns. Darvas arrived at his technique through a mix of circumstance and trial and error. Born in Hungary, he studied to be an economist at the University of Budapest. With the outbreak of World War II in 1939, he feared the Nazis and communists vying for control of his country. At age 23, with a forged visa and a little money, he fled to Turkey. Teaming with his half-sister Julia, they became one of the most popular professional dance duos in Europe
and, later, America. In 1951 he came to the U.S. He trained diligently for eight hours a day to hone his hoofer skills.

Darvas applied his dogged determination to learn about stocks. Soon he had read 200 books on investing. His first stock was offered to him in 1952 by two Toronto nightclub owners. The impresarios said they would pay him for a dancing engagement with 6,000 shares of Brilund, a Canadian mining firm. The stock then was worth 50 cents a share. Darvas didn’t take the Toronto gig. But to show goodwill, he bought their Brilund stock for $3,000. He forgot about it until months later.

He glanced at the stock’s price in the paper. “I shot upright in my chair,” he wrote in “How I Made.” “My50-cent Brilund stock was quoted at $1.90. I sold it at once and made a profit of close to $8,000.” He inspected charts. He noticed that as stocks moved up, they traded within a range. Leading stocks moved up again, trading in a higher range. He called each range the stock’s box. When a stock pulled back within a box, that was often a sign it would vault into a higher box. “Before a dancer leaps into the air he goes into a crouch to set himself for the spring,” Darvas wrote.

17. Singapore billionaire Peter Lim, dubbed the “Remisier King”
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...84&sec=business

Mr Lim is ranked Singapore's eighth richest man by Forbes Asia with a net worth of US$1.6 billion. Mr Lim, who made his fortune in the stock market. Lim became a stockbroker for mainly Indonesian clients. His successful returns earned him the nickname "Remisier King"
http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/php...2b2926b600d8b7f

Ironically, Mr Lim, who was one of Singapore's leading stockbrokers and is now a private investor, does not monitor the stock market every day

Another key reason for his success, he said, is patience.....does not subscribe to buying one day and selling the next to cash in.

His advice to young investors: 'You have to invest with a longer-term mindset. You buy a good stock, leave it there for 10 years. Come 10 years, this dollar can be many, many multiples. 'I think the trick is really to think long-term. 'You may not have a lot of money, but you have a lot of time.'

http://www.sgwayoflife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5136

18. putting it all together http://www.williamoneil.com/
pricing http://books.google.com.my/books?id=SfQFy8...epage&q&f=false
background http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/William_O%27Neil
great for traders http://www.investopedia.com/university/gre...p#axzz1c3T2cUep

This post has been edited by sulifeisgreat: Nov 11 2011, 01:23 PM

Closing for Monday Sept 12
Dow 11061.12 +68.99 +0.63%
Nasdaq 2495.09 +27.10 +1.10
S&P500 1162.27 +8.04 +0.70%

Got a bit of a positive divergence here on the oversold condition. So, we got a oversold rally into close.

Need to see more confirmation before we can say we got triple bottom in the last 2 weeks of trading.

Personally, I like to see a little more push down.. perhaps down to SP 1120 level before
I would like to cover the rest of my shorts. Hopefully mr market will make it happen...

I like triple bottom

Just reload my DDM at 48

Time to slaughter the bears

This post has been edited by Myoswee: Sep 13 2011, 12:43 PM