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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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danmooncake
post Jul 23 2013, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(countdown @ Jul 23 2013, 09:07 PM)
Very difficult to trade in fact trading earning is more like a gamble. I was taking strag due to NFLX past 2 earnings gotten a very handsome gain i.e the delta gain able to offset the vega drop. Last time was like more than 10% move, now with 3.72% forget abt it.... cry.gif
*
That's drawback. If the option market price in 5% move only and the actual move is less than 5%, you're toast.
Your long side strangle (both PUT and CALL) get eaten by the theta melt later.

But, if you've shorted it, you will be ok.
countdown
post Jul 23 2013, 09:24 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 23 2013, 09:17 PM)
That's drawback. If the option market price in 5% move only and the actual move is less than 5%, you're toast.
Your long side strangle (both PUT and CALL) get eaten by the theta melt later.

But, if you've shorted it, you will be ok.
*
toasted indeed. btw, how do we know/estimate that 5% has been priced in via the IV? When we know 5% has been priced in, any sign or calculation/estimation that the underlying move will be more than 5% to offset it? notworthy.gif If able to estimate the price movement will be less than 5%, then Fly, IC, short straddle/strag n etc are the answer.

This post has been edited by countdown: Jul 23 2013, 09:26 PM
danmooncake
post Jul 23 2013, 09:38 PM

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QUOTE(countdown @ Jul 23 2013, 09:24 PM)
toasted indeed. btw, how do we know/estimate that 5% has been priced in via the IV? When we know 5% has been priced in, any sign or calculation/estimation that the underlying move will be more than 5% to offset it? notworthy.gif  If able to estimate the price movement will be less than 5%, then Fly, IC, short straddle/strag n etc are the answer.
*
I'm just using that 5% as example only.. not necessarily apply to NFLX. I didn't study NFLX enough to know if this is true or not
but you may already know that ahead of time before you enter your position in your strangle, right?

For example, prior to earnings, what's that price of those options for both LONG and CALLS.. calculate your percentage from your underlying price.

So, your price movement got to move more than the what the option market is telling you for you to make money of long strangle otherwise go the opposite direction.

a) If you think the earnings will be a big one, big enough to cover the delta.. then long side will work

b) If you think the earnings will be ok and mediocre, but since option market already price in x% and anything x% or less will be short of your expectation, then short side strangle will work here.

Remember, if you're playing weeklies.. usually thelta melt also helps short side too because of timing to expiration is short.
yok70
post Jul 23 2013, 10:30 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 23 2013, 08:39 PM)
I'll put AAPL aside for now until after the earnings. Too unpredictable now.
Waiting like this drool.gif
Haven't bought in my 2nd batch. I wish bad results to send price down to 360 for me to add more stake. tongue.gif
netmask8
post Jul 23 2013, 10:40 PM

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CLSA Feng Shui Index 2013 is quite correlate with DJIA and S&P500 in 1st half 2013 ..
Wii it be same in 2nd half 2013 ?? CLSA Feng Shui Index 2013

Source ==> https://www.clsa.com/special/FSI/2013/the-indexsss.cfm Remember to check full report PDF in English.
danmooncake
post Jul 23 2013, 11:07 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 23 2013, 10:30 PM)
Waiting like this  drool.gif
Haven't bought in my 2nd batch. I wish bad results to send price down to 360 for me to add more stake.  tongue.gif
*
If you willing to buy at 360, sell the 360 PUT now and collect the premium while you wait. biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jul 24 2013, 04:37 AM

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Margin: 36.9%

iPad Sales: 14.6 million

Mac Sales: 3.8 million

iPhone Sales: 31.2 million

iPod Sales: 4.6 million

EPS: $7.47

Sales: $35.3 billion

Net: $6.9 billion


Beats expectation? So rally tomorrow? laugh.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 24 2013, 04:38 AM
yok70
post Jul 24 2013, 04:48 AM

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after hour trade now at 438! wow! looks like my 2nd batch would have to be average up instead. thumbup.gif
....now 439.....now 441......now 437......i'm off for the day. yawn.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jul 24 2013, 05:22 AM
zamans98
post Jul 24 2013, 05:32 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 24 2013, 04:37 AM)
Margin: 36.9%

iPad Sales: 14.6 million

Mac Sales: 3.8 million

iPhone Sales: 31.2 million

iPod Sales: 4.6 million

EPS: $7.47

Sales: $35.3 billion

Net: $6.9 billion
Beats expectation? So rally tomorrow?  laugh.gif
*
after reading http://www.forbes.com/sites/connieguglielm...-earnings-live/
its not that all glory and glittering

I found that the next quarter forecast are being manipulated in order to achieve a better result. Remember last quarter? The days after the result, the stock dived from 460's to 420's
yok70
post Jul 24 2013, 05:47 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Jul 24 2013, 05:32 AM)
after reading http://www.forbes.com/sites/connieguglielm...-earnings-live/
its not that all glory and glittering

I found that the next quarter forecast are being manipulated in order to achieve a better result. Remember last quarter? The days after the result, the stock dived from 460's to 420's
*
that is still possible for apple bears response ,since it's just some flat numbers. biggrin.gif
however, i'm apple bull. I think now is bad time since there isn't any exciting products in the shelf at all, and it still able to get those flat numbers, which I'm very much satisfy. The hope is the soon launching lineup of new products all the way into 2014. In fact, even just a larger screen iphone would have let it gain back some market shares. Now plus the iOS 7, it may be worth some hope for it.
anyway, i'm still not sure, of course. So buying Apple is really high risk investment, I understand this. laugh.gif
danmooncake
post Jul 24 2013, 10:20 AM

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It's all about the number game. They already lowered the street expectation for this Q and the price action already reflected that. So, a beat here means good news from here. The July low at 388 now is confirmed bottom for the year.
Should be more upside from here.

The machines knew that and MM gaps it up to 430 above technical support line of 50ma.
IMO, safe to stay long and play with the bulls from here. nod.gif
Time to put some money to work later. wink.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jul 24 2013, 10:20 AM
yok70
post Jul 24 2013, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 24 2013, 10:20 AM)
It's all about the number game. They already lowered the street expectation for this Q and the price action already reflected that. So, a beat here means good news from here. The July low at 388 now is confirmed bottom for the year.
Should be more upside from here. 

The machines knew that and MM gaps it up to 430 above technical support line of 50ma.
IMO, safe to stay long and play with the bulls from here.  nod.gif
Time to put some money to work later.  wink.gif
*
looks like average up will be my 2nd batch game. in fact average up or down also i don't mind, just don't dull no movement, that's boring. tongue.gif
countdown
post Jul 24 2013, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jul 23 2013, 09:38 PM)
For example, prior to earnings, what's that price of those options for both LONG and CALLS.. calculate your percentage from your underlying price.

So, your price movement got to move more than the what the option market is telling you for you to make money of long strangle otherwise go the opposite direction.

a) If you think the earnings will be a big one, big enough to cover the delta.. then long side will work

b) If you think the earnings will be ok and mediocre, but since option market already price in x% and anything x% or less will be short of your expectation, then short side strangle will work here.

Remember, if you're playing weeklies.. usually thelta melt also helps short side too because of timing to expiration is short.
*
Thank you.

The price for both LONG and PUT was 17.63 and the mother price is 262.45. Thus, the % is 6.72%? It'll need more than 6.72% move on either direction to make money? notworthy.gif
djack
post Jul 24 2013, 10:13 PM

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anyone know any platform to get live stock prices chart ?


like mt4 for forex . but i want with stocks
foofoosasa
post Jul 24 2013, 10:56 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 24 2013, 03:52 PM)
looks like average up will be my 2nd batch game. in fact average up or down also i don't mind, just don't dull no movement, that's boring.  tongue.gif
*
100 units per batch ? brows.gif
djack
post Jul 24 2013, 11:23 PM

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found 1 . http://www.livestream.com/daytraderrockstar

anyone got more live streaming stock.
zamans98
post Jul 25 2013, 12:35 AM

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QUOTE(djack @ Jul 24 2013, 11:23 PM)
found 1 . http://www.livestream.com/daytraderrockstar

anyone got more live streaming stock.
*
LOL, just open a trading account. Easy.
countdown
post Jul 25 2013, 12:36 AM

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anyone planning to short the ETF indexes, DIA, SPY or QQQ? Everything seems to be pointing down.
zamans98
post Jul 25 2013, 12:38 AM

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QUOTE(countdown @ Jul 25 2013, 12:36 AM)
anyone planning to short the ETF indexes, DIA, SPY or QQQ? Everything seems to be pointing down.
*
how about the 3x ETF? That's more interesting.
Market will take a breather soon. So time to buy some Bear ETF

CODE


ETF Name  Ticker  Benchmark Index
Daily Large Cap Bear 3x  BGZ  Russell 1000
Daily Mid Cap Bear 3x  MWN  Russell Midcap Index
Daily Small Cap Bear 3x  RTY  Russell 2000
Daily Agribusiness Bear 3x  COWS  DAZ Global Ag Index
Daily Basic Materials Bear 3x  MATS  S&P Materials Select Sector Index
Daily Energy Bear 3x  ERY  Russell 1000 Energy
Daily Financial Bear 3x  FAZ  Russell 1000 Financial Services
Daily Technology Bear 3x  TYP  Russell 1000 Technology
Daily Health Care Bear 3x  SICK  S&P Health Care Select
Daily Real Estate Bear 3x  DRV  MSCI US REIT Index
Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x  SOXS  PHLX Semiconductor Sector Index
Daily China Bear 3x  YANG  BNY Mellon China Select
Daily Developed Markets Bear 3x  DPK  MSCI EAFE Index
Daily Emerging Markets Bear 3x  EDZ  MSCI Emerging Markets
Daily Latin America Bear 3x  LHB  S&P Latin America 40
Daily Russia Bear 3x  RUSS  DAX Global Russia+
Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3x  TYO  NYSE 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Index
Daily 20 year Plus Treasury Bear 3x  TMV  NYSE 20 Year Plus Treasury Bond Index
countdown
post Jul 25 2013, 12:52 AM

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QUOTE(zamans98 @ Jul 25 2013, 12:38 AM)
how about the 3x ETF? That's more interesting.
Market will take a breather soon. So time to buy some Bear ETF
one at a time *gulp*, unless I'm pretty sure the setup is good sweat.gif

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