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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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netmask8
post Nov 6 2012, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 6 2012, 10:23 PM)
Agree... I like to see S&P500 dips to 1375-1380 area before bouncing.   At this rate.. it's slowly melting away.
Lots of bulls are defending that 1400 line.

Tonight, gotta to watch AAPL. See if the bottom at 575-580 can hold or not. This is my area to play the long side for position  trade and hedge with shorts intraday trade for minor wave down play.  We just need more volume to push this back up the 200ma line. Not sure tonight we'll get it.. due to Election day.  hmm.gif


Added on November 6, 2012, 11:11 pmPlaying a little short with the opening gap up for AAPL, wkly PUTs @ 588.
Wait to exit.. maybe around 582-583 for long side play.
*
Greetings + G'Day,

Many companies hold off their investments/orders due to fiscal cliff hanger that schedule to affect US economy starting 1st Jan 2013
and may cause recession to USA Economy in 1st qrtr to 2nd qrtr in year 2013.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_cliff_debate

My own picks :- LVS, BZH, CRBC, LYG, XL and MGM

Ppls are holding strong CASH at the moment and hope to pick some should the CBOE VIX reaches 35 pts and above.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBOE_Volatility_Index

Who win the presidential post will have to deal with Fiscal Cliff matter by end of year 2012.. If Romney wins, the White House
and Congress will be under Republician.. But, the Senate still under Democrats hand..

President = After Nov 6th will know
Senate = Democrats ( Similiar to Dewan Negara in Msia)
Congress = Republican ( Similiar to Dewan Rakyat/Parliament in Msia)

Have a great day.

This post has been edited by netmask8: Nov 6 2012, 11:52 PM
netmask8
post Nov 8 2012, 09:12 AM

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Greetings + G'Day,

DJIA skydive 313pts today due to fiscal cliff fear which expects to push USA
to recession by -0.5% of the GDP in 1st half of year 2013. DJIA and S&P500
closed below 13000pts and 1400pts respectively.VIX jumps to 19pts.

CASH will be KING again in 1st half of year 2013.
Monitor and wait until FEAR FACTOR VIX reaches 30pts and above, to make
wise + prudent decision-making by putting yr $$ to work hard 4 u.

VIX will shoot up + market will skyfall if major rating agencies downgrade usa credit debt grade.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBOE_Volatility_Index
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_cliff_debate

Have a great day.
netmask8
post Nov 8 2012, 10:50 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 8 2012, 10:13 AM)
LOL.. I heard various spins on this.. the financial news just look for reasons why the market tanks.

The fiscal cliff fear isn't the only cause because it's been well known way ahead of time - infact months ago..
now only sell of meh? 

The stories are..we got all sorts of combo events...overnight Obama wins, then Romney's friendly hedge funds SELL to punish the financial systems..Draghi comments that said Euro Zone will remain "weak" in near term - , AAPL fell into bear territory (564)..another technical sell because some index funds hold 5~10% of AAPL.
2nd storm is coming to US east coasts again.. now we got financial storm.  doh.gif

Anyway... I think for all dip buyers out there.. just be careful, we could be in the process of a major pull back. Uptrend will become downtrend in a few more sessions if this doesn't bounce. Watch for that 200MA line..(line in sand).

Good luck to all.  whistling.gif
*
Greetings + G'Day,

Expects to have 15-20% correction in year 2013, if any of the rating
agencies(Moody's Investor, Fitch and Std & Poor) downgrade usa credit debt grade
again due to no compromise/clear solution to the fiscal cliff budget hanger.

Cash will be KING.. Pick + Invest wisely .. My Pick = LVS, XL, LYG, MGM, BZH + CRBC

Have a great day.
netmask8
post Nov 8 2012, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(theboringguy @ Nov 8 2012, 03:27 PM)
hmmm if u thk 2013 will be a good year then perhaps u can go in...? hmm.gif
but i m all for the bear~~ =P for now bear is growing~~~wuuhuu~~ rclxms.gif
*
Greetings + G'Day,

What are the best USA stocks for investors to pick? Dividend? Price?
Low P/E Ratio, PEG ?? Good Cashflow? Share Split 2 for 1 ...etc..etc

AAPL, C, BAC, GE, KO, MCD, MSFT, IBM, INTC, NBG, CRBC,
ETFC, S, SVU, THC, LSI ..etc..etc

Have a great day.
netmask8
post Nov 8 2012, 11:24 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 8 2012, 08:33 PM)
G'day,

Best?  laugh.gif  It's all relative.
What's best today may not be best tomorrow.. eg. look at AAPL. 6 months ago.. it was the Best! Everyone wants it. Now, it is a Pest! Everyone wants out! laugh.gif

Also, looks like you already got your picks above.. whistling.gif 

When you picks stocks.. ask yourself "What's my their time horizons, my expected returns and my risk tolerance .."
I not sure if you're in just for trading, or really investing (like long term cap gains, expecting divis..) or something else. 

For investing, you may want to spread your risk and choose each stocks from diff. sector (aka. diversifying).
Below, you got two pairs that are too close.

LVS and MGM - the same gaming sector (pick one or the other)
XL and CRVC - Ins & banks...close enough.

Try pick 5.. all from different sectors.  wink.gif


Added on November 8, 2012, 9:57 pm
AAPL is trapped below the bear line (-20% from peak) tonight.. it needs to crawl itself out from 565.. otherwise,
next sub floor is at 525-535.


Added on November 8, 2012, 11:12 pmAAPL digs another $-7 hole to $548.. will we see $545 today?... $535 by Friday..watching capitulation?    hmm.gif


Added on November 8, 2012, 11:23 pmUpdate: AAPL 545 $-12 ...

Raw AAPL being squeezed into AAPL can juice..
*
Greetings + Gday,

LVS + MGM are my major portfolios as they respresent 60% of my holdings since March 2009.

I believed, in any gaming sector(casino), ppls always greedy and wanna to try their luck to earn fast money.
Both companies got its control subsidiary companies in Macau (listed in HKSE) and with great (and strong) China's
economy power house(2nd in the world), Chinese ppls also wealthy and will visit Macau to play roulette/black jack ..etc..etc.

If 10 ppls go into casino, and the probability is 80% of the ppls will lose their $$$ in the casino.. Even the 20% won,
but with greed mind/emotion, the next day, they will re-visit casino again and again. Their payput Dividends are great too.

BZH = Home Contruction Company is another one of my favourite pick, as USA housing has bottomed and
housing/home are growing in USA for the past few qrtrs.

AAPL = I monitor this counter when that time was just price = USD98 few years back.. Now, more then USD500..

Since we all earn a living in RM, it will very expensive to buy USA blue chip/technology stocks with much higher currency exchg.
Once u got a few units of USA stocks, when the stock price move uptrend, the profits will be convert to RM or remains in trust account.

My experience using online trading accounts are E-Trade(ETFC), UBS, Zecco and OSK188.. Support wise, OSK188 is better, as same time-zone.
Entry the market when there is a big MEGA Sale Discount ( When VIX > 35pts and above ).. Exit the market(sell non-performing counters)
when VIX < 18pts and below). VIX is the gauge of stock market FEAR FACTOR level.

All the best.

netmask8
post Nov 8 2012, 11:42 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 8 2012, 11:32 PM)
Only one comment. I see "risky" zone here.. 60% in one similar sector.  laugh.gif
*
Greetings + G'Day,

Always got the risk with the high allocation. Will be wise if portfolio splits into different industry/sectors.

BTW, i already got my capital back and good profit from the counters divident payout..

Fiscal Cliff Settlement/Agreement and rating agency downgrade on USA credit debt grade will be closely watch in coming qrtr.

IMO, Till Jan 2013, lock profits and hold CASH will be ideal case.. For good blue-chip divident counters, HOLD it 4ever.

have a great day.


netmask8
post Nov 9 2012, 09:49 AM

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Greetings + G'Day,

What are the relevant + reliable technical charts does retails/investors/hedge-fund use in today's trend?

It is still applicable and widely use? Or perhaps, retails/investors/hedge-fund prefers fundamental

market news to make judgement in stock pick?

Anyone know what are the criteria/technical charts/formula .etc use by Warren Buffett to select and pick his stock/counter ? How he pick the entrance level and what are the criteria he exit the stock?

Appreciate your input and hope we learn important knowledge from the success model.

Have a great day.
netmask8
post Nov 13 2012, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 12 2012, 11:41 PM)
Sideway trading tonight....

AAPL forming a base..and support here (535-545..)
LVS (42.50 ~ 43.50) .. same.

Watching $SPX (SPY).. bulls going to try to work hard to take back 200MA here (1382 or higher).
If not, we're going down to 1365 for support soon.

Maybe need to sell some options to take advantage of weekly expiration..  hmm.gif
*
Will consider to buy LVS more when it broke below 50days MA or price usd35 (with VIX reaches more than 30pts and above).

Worth to consider = XL, CRBC, C, KO or AA

Have a great day.
netmask8
post Nov 13 2012, 11:45 PM

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Greetings + G'Day,

I think, CASH will be KING again in 1st and 2nd Qtr of year 2013.. Adviced my friends/colleagues for lock profits after 2 weeks QE3 annoucement,
to sell all non-performing USA stocks, put the CASH in FD @ monthly rate for 6-8 mths and continue to hold good blue-chips dividend counters.

My US-based MNC company business order/demand drop 30% per last qrtr and 45% per last 2 qrtr while my
friend US-based MNC company business order/demand drop more than 60%.. Many US companies HOLD their orders/investment
and to watch how fiscal cliff will take affect beginning year 2013... Hence, the earnings/financial reporting
for next coming 2 qrtrs will be disappointed and usually, weak earnings = market slump = VIX > 30pts = CASH is KING..
Poor Earnings will leads to cost cuttings, unemployment, conservative/pessimism business, weak investor confidence and ..etc

Best MEGA SALES picks for past 5 years were 6th March and 9th March 2009. Hope it will repeat again and everyone hope to
get good MEGA Sales Discount. Optimism of X'Mas and New Year 2013 Sales will be opposite.

Worry = Recession in US for 1st/2nd Qrtr and Rating Agencies(Moody, S&P, Fitch) downgrade USA Debt Grade level.

Have a great day.

This post has been edited by netmask8: Nov 13 2012, 11:51 PM
netmask8
post Nov 15 2012, 08:29 AM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 13 2012, 11:45 PM)
Greetings + G'Day,

    I think, CASH will be KING again in 1st and 2nd Qtr of year 2013.. Adviced my friends/colleagues to lock profits after 2 weeks QE3 annoucement,
to sell all non-performing USA stocks, put the CASH in FD @ monthly rate for 6-8 mths and continue to hold good blue-chips dividend counters.

My US-based MNC company business order/demand drop 30% per last qrtr and 45% per last 2 qrtr while my
friend US-based MNC company business order/demand drop more than 60%.. Many US companies HOLD their orders/investment
and to watch how fiscal cliff will take affect beginning year 2013...  Hence, the earnings/financial reporting
for next coming 2 qrtrs will be disappointed and usually, weak earnings = market slump = VIX > 30pts = CASH is KING..
Poor Earnings will leads to cost cuttings, unemployment, conservative/pessimism business, weak investor confidence and ..etc

Best MEGA SALES picks for past 5 years were 6th March and 9th March 2009. Hope it will repeat again and everyone hope to
get good MEGA Sales Discount. Optimism of X'Mas and New Year 2013 Sales will be opposite.

Worry = Recession in US for 1st/2nd Qrtr and Rating Agencies(Moody, S&P, Fitch) downgrade USA Debt Grade level.

Have a great day.
*
Greetngs + G'Day,

I think, lock profit will be ideal case b4 too late to exit..

Main Worry = 1) Recession in US for next 1st and 2nd Qrtr in year 2013 and 2) Rating Agencies(Moody, S&P, Fitch) downgrade USA Debt Grade level.

Fiscal Cliff agenda = Reduce Country Deficits / Debt per GDP ratio which seen good positive for long-run, but the economy
will be flat/stagnation/deflation(smiliar to Japan) for long run. Slow inflation may be good for the US economy.

Have a great day.

This post has been edited by netmask8: Nov 15 2012, 10:27 AM
netmask8
post Nov 15 2012, 11:40 AM

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QUOTE(theboringguy @ Nov 15 2012, 09:35 AM)
Seriously, once Obama speaks..... sweat.gif  lol~

any opinion on the fiscal cliff? Is there any way that US can do anything to turn the table around? or else it would be just downfall as taxing for biz increase~~


Added on November 15, 2012, 9:34 amOh HD tanked 3%????
*
Greetings + G'Day,

Compromise Solution between Republicans and Democrats politicians on tax,spending ..etc..etc will be ideal solution since the
White House(President) and Senate(Dewan Negara) = Democrats, while Congress(Dewan Rakyat) = Republican.

If otherwise, the automatic tax hike and spending cuts and others which agreed by Mr. President,Congress Speaker
and both senior party representatives(which passed through Congress votes, Senate votes and with Obama's signature) will take affect in year 2013.

Read ==> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiscal_cliff_debate .. My feeling is = Rating Agencies(Moody, S&P and Fitch) will
cut USA Debt/Credit Rating Grade again in year 2013(Patience wait for the Opportunity). Prefer long term investment and fundamental analysis.

Patience is Bitter, but its fruit is sweet.

Have a great day.

This post has been edited by netmask8: Nov 15 2012, 11:44 AM
netmask8
post Nov 16 2012, 09:17 AM

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Greetings + G'Day,

US economy is largely supported by consumption (70%) + it is not possible
to recovery if Unemployment rate remains 7.8% high. Weak Economy, huge print money/debts,
low treasuries bond demand + euro %$#$@ , recession just started again + expected
market bottom in 1st half 2013. CASH will be King again.

World 5 strongest currency would be CAD, AUD, SGD, RMB + CHF.
CAD and AUD are backed by commodities while SGD, RMB + CHF hv strong reserves.

VIX 30pts = Pour in 30% of $$ in market
VIX 35pts = Pour in another 30% $$ in market
VIX 40pts = Pour in final 30% $$ in market
VIX 45pts and above = Show Hand last final 10% $$

FORMULA = 30, 30, 30 and 10 = 100% of yr CASH

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBOE_Volatility_Index

Short to Medium Term Investment

VIX = 35pts to 50pts  Masuk due to Fearful mode
VIX = 20pts and below  Keluar due to Greedy mode

Special Extraordinary Note

VIX = 50pts and above  Another doom crisis is coming .. May see another “century / life-time” opportunity coming again ?? Very hardly.

Own opinion, Own Decision, Own Action.
Note:- Do not follow the above. Thank you.

netmask8
post Nov 16 2012, 12:39 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 16 2012, 11:50 AM)

Have you noticed that too? This time around the good old fear indicator $VIX is not useful anymore...  whistling.gif
*
Greetings + G'Day,

VIX is referred as the fear index(or the fear gauge), it represents one measure of the market's expectation of stock market volatility. IMHO, it is still an useful fear factor level to decide whether to enter or exit the market. For the past 5 years, the opposite reverses between VIX and S&P 500 chart are quite significant.

http://data.cnbc.com/quotes/VIX/tab/2

Have a great day.
netmask8
post Nov 16 2012, 09:10 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 16 2012, 08:53 PM)
Of course.. knew that years ago $VIX has inverse relationship with the general index. 

But I am saying this time around..(just during the past 6 weeks of downturn) has anyone notice that $VIX been pretty stagnant while the market continues downwards.
*
Yeap, Perhaps I think it is due to QE3 .. Hardly seeing VIX raise above 20pts unlike in year 2010 and 2011 respectively.
netmask8
post Nov 16 2012, 11:37 PM

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LVS = one of my favourite pick for long-term.. But, i think it is overprice.. I'm seeing bargain hunting ranges
between USD 33 - USD36, when VIX is more than 30pts and above.

BZH, NBG and MGM = attractive price too, but prefer to wait how the settlement of fiscal cliff.
netmask8
post Nov 18 2012, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(edwin32us @ Nov 18 2012, 11:56 AM)
Buy call for Facebook..

After Facebook IPO recently .. It plunge down and went sideways in the trendline between 24.4 to 18.6.

[attachmentid=3161912]
Indicators
1 ) Trendline - In the sideway trendline between 18.6 to 24.4 . If break up from the 24.4 will indicate bullish.
2)  Support/Resistance - Formed double bottom at 18.6 ( Slightly Bullish )
3) MACD -Bullish Crossover  and formed 4R1G ( Bullish ) .
4) RSI - Rebound from 50% and trending upwards (Bullish ) ,
5) STO -  Rebound from 20% and bullish crossover (Bullish )
6) Ichimoku -  a) Price entering from the support cloud (Slightly Bullish). If break above it will be bullish confirmation
                      b) Conversion line  below the base line (Bearish).
                      c) Price close above the baseline ( Bullish ) .
7) Candlestick pattern - White Candle after a bullish harami  (Bullish ).
Conclusion
Bullish

If it can break away from the Support cloud and from the sideway trendline above 24.4 it will become more bullish..

Entry Price at 24.6
Stop Loss at  23
Profit at 25.5

E ( Entry) :24.6  ( Closed at or above it)
S ( Stop Loss) : 23
P ( Profit) :25.5
RRR (Risk to Reward Ratio) =0.56  (Risky)

E ( Entry) :24.6  ( Closed at or above it)
S ( Stop Loss) : 23
P ( Profit) :26.5
RRR (Risk to Reward Ratio) =1.19 (Average)

E ( Entry) :24.6  ( Closed at or above it)
S ( Stop Loss) : 23
P ( Profit) :29
RRR (Risk to Reward Ratio) =2.75  (Slightly Rewarding)

Resistance at 22.6 / 23.4 / 24.4 / 25.7 / 26.7 / 29.4
Support  at 19/ 18.6 / 17.5
*
Greetings + G'Day,

Thank you for the technical analysis(TA) data given.. I do not use TA for more than a decade, as i believe TA is more suitable for
short-term investor.. For me, I'm prefer to make decision-making thru Fundamental Analysis, VIX(fear gauge) and financial statements/cashflow/PEG/debt ratio/ ..etc..etc of the real health condition of the company.

Have a great day.
netmask8
post Nov 18 2012, 10:05 PM

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Greetings + G'Day,

Present Middle-East Conflict may add more worry for investors next week.

Hope the conflict will not escalate further and become BIG .. Hope no other parties

add more fire into the present Crisis.. e.g Iran, Lebanon Hezbollah, Ground Army in Gaza, Warplanes/Carrier ..etc..etc

All the best in your Investment.
netmask8
post Nov 19 2012, 11:23 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 19 2012, 10:57 PM)
bull?  hmm.gif
*
Perhaps, it is Fish Bait.. Fiscal Cliff Worry ==> Down Down
Fiscal Cliff Settlement ==> Another Good Bait ..

1. USA Debt Credit DownGrade by MAJOR rating agencies ==> SkyFall

2. Recession ==> Down Trend

finally ==> Bargain Hunting

Just a thought.
netmask8
post Nov 20 2012, 08:25 AM

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When is the USA turns? Perhaps, after the finalized of fiscal cliff and major rating agency are not convincing abt it.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49892075


netmask8
post Nov 20 2012, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Nov 20 2012, 11:24 AM)
Agreed. Who cares about rating agency anymore.  tongue.gif

*
Credibility or vice-versa of Rating Agencies(Moody, S&P, Fitch)==> not important or
big deal for small investor like me, BUT major hedge fund mgrs/investors
may looks FEAR and want to sell drastically to lock profits / cut losses
for more obstacles.

That's come the OPPORTUNITY and fear Gauge for small investor to pick it at good
BARGAIN HUNTING.. All the best.

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