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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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danmooncake
post Jun 12 2013, 08:13 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 12 2013, 08:03 PM)
Thanks for your advice man. But I insist my decision. Very stubborn  rclxub.gif .
*
Whatever you do, better watch your portfolio carefully. Chinese stocks taken to the cleaners very easily even for those big name ones like BIDU, DANG, RENN or SINA. Either they stay flat or down almost 50% for the past 12-24 months.

The small caps ones can go to zero or get de-listed easily. A lot of them did because they fail to report their earnings timely and then suddenly we hear of accounting fraud. What a scam.. how did those pirates get listed in the first place? shakehead.gif
foofoosasa
post Jun 12 2013, 08:35 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 12 2013, 08:13 PM)
Whatever you do, better watch your portfolio carefully. Chinese stocks taken to the cleaners very easily even for those big name ones like BIDU, DANG, RENN or SINA. Either they stay flat or down almost 50% for the past 12-24 months.

The small caps ones can go to zero or get de-listed easily. A lot of them did because they fail to report their earnings timely and then suddenly we hear of accounting fraud.  What a scam.. how did those pirates get listed in the first place?  shakehead.gif
*
notworthy.gif ,

The underwriters sure knew something is wrong. But maybe they want to goreng by shorting all these stocks when the timing is right brows.gif .
danmooncake
post Jun 12 2013, 08:50 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 12 2013, 08:35 PM)
notworthy.gif ,

The underwriters sure knew something is wrong. But maybe they want to goreng by shorting all these stocks when the timing is right  brows.gif .
*
Yeah.. same goes for the auditors. They knew something is wrong, then they resign themselves and the company postpones their quarterly report. That's when we see the stock price begin to decline immediately. After delisted, SEC may take action over after a few years because it is extremely difficult to get China to cooperate because those Chinese companies won't release their audit or financial report in detail to SEC. By that time, it is too late.

See how that works? They want to get listed in US stock exhange, they publish all sorts of financial reports and accounting
info before listed, and after listed, if something goes bad, they cite Chinese govt laws prohibit them from releasing accounting info because it is state secret. Therefore, it is extremely difficult for the US regulators go after them. Best thing to do is just to ban these pirate ships from being listed.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 12 2013, 08:55 PM
yok70
post Jun 12 2013, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 12 2013, 07:06 PM)
Sure man, they'll launch new products. But, market is not kind to those new products if it is just another cycle.
Take a look at share price before iPhone5 launch last Sept. Fast fwd 3 months (one quarter) later and their BIGGEST quarter
when they're expecting to have the biggest earnings in Q1 2013.  So, what happened?  laugh.gif
*
I am betting on the Apple Bear to get tired.
I'm not so sure as well, but I feel it's getting tired.
After 2 years of Samsung's glory, I am seeing Samsung's bull is getting tired slowly.
Samsung's products are feature rich with reasonable price, that is the key that attracts buyers.
However, speaking of style and uniqueness, Samsung's products never win on this part. Galaxy products look simple and usable, but not pretty, definitely not stylish as Apple's product.
My wild guess is, buyers will return to Apple even if it only playing catch up game. Moreover, I don't think Apple really that weak, although it's much weaker than Job's era.
The Mac Pro has already starts its magic broadly in Multimedia line. I am sure sales will be huge this year end when launching.
I am accumulating Apple shares on dips. cool2.gif
yok70
post Jun 12 2013, 09:19 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 12 2013, 08:13 PM)
Whatever you do, better watch your portfolio carefully. Chinese stocks taken to the cleaners very easily even for those big name ones like BIDU, DANG, RENN or SINA. Either they stay flat or down almost 50% for the past 12-24 months.

The small caps ones can go to zero or get de-listed easily. A lot of them did because they fail to report their earnings timely and then suddenly we hear of accounting fraud.  What a scam.. how did those pirates get listed in the first place?  shakehead.gif
*
True. Transparency is still the biggest issue on China stocks.
However, read some recent news saying some foreign funds start accumulating China stocks. hmm.gif
I also been started accumulating some stocks recently, with the hope that China has been on progress to correct those financial mistakes (transparency, systematic etc). But I also worry it may still too early to enter at this moment. sweat.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 12 2013, 09:22 PM
foofoosasa
post Jun 12 2013, 09:53 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 12 2013, 09:19 PM)
True. Transparency is still the biggest issue on China stocks.
However, read some recent news saying some foreign funds start accumulating China stocks.  hmm.gif
I also been started accumulating some stocks recently, with the hope that China has been on progress to correct those financial mistakes (transparency, systematic etc). But I also worry it may still too early to enter at this moment.  sweat.gif
*
Actually I think this time not bad to enter la. tongue.gif

Still long way to go, the foundation of financial market is still very weak. probably lag behind US for almost 30-40 years in terms of overall such as protecting retail investor etc..
danmooncake
post Jun 12 2013, 10:05 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 12 2013, 09:53 PM)
Actually I think this time not bad to enter la. tongue.gif

Still long way to go, the foundation of financial market is still very weak. probably lag behind US for almost 30-40 years in terms of overall such as protecting retail investor etc..
*
I think the best China play is still the US companies doing business there.. eg. the gaming companies like LVS, WYNN, MGM (or pure Macau play: MPEL). Seems to be doing pretty good. Chinese loves to gamble. brows.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Jun 12 2013, 10:06 PM
yok70
post Jun 12 2013, 10:14 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 12 2013, 09:53 PM)
Actually I think this time not bad to enter la. tongue.gif

Still long way to go, the foundation of financial market is still very weak. probably lag behind US for almost 30-40 years in terms of overall such as protecting retail investor etc..
*
I think the weakness has more or less priced in. China's large-cap banks are trading at 0.8-0.9x pbv and about 6x PE now. US banks at 10-11x PE and pbv quite different (WFC 1.44x, BAC 0.6x). Malaysia banks most expensive approaching or above 2x pbv with 14-15x PE.
So how low can they go while waiting for the financial system to mature, that's the million dollar question. sweat.gif
yok70
post Jun 12 2013, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 12 2013, 10:05 PM)
I think the best China play is still the US companies doing business there.. eg. the gaming companies like LVS, WYNN, MGM (or pure Macau play: MPEL). Seems to be doing pretty good. Chinese loves to gamble.  brows.gif
*
Actually I'm quite frustrating on how to value casino stock.
Many times I read quarter report from Genting, many times their revenue was good, but profit was so bad and they claimed it on less luck factor (customers won a lot). The earnings difference could be as huge as 30-40%! Like this how to valuate casino stock? Gambling too? rclxub.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 12 2013, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 12 2013, 10:17 PM)
Actually I'm quite frustrating on how to value casino stock.
Many times I read quarter report from Genting, many times their revenue was good, but profit was so bad and they claimed it on less luck factor (customers won a lot). The earnings difference could be as huge as 30-40%! Like this how to valuate casino stock? Gambling too?  rclxub.gif
*
Genting - the bad thing about this company is that they got the other businesses dragging it down, not pure gaming anymore.

Also, Genting with RWS is catering more towards the uncle/aunties gambling $1/$2.. wherease MBS (owned by LVS) is catering for
high end VIPs gambling in stacks of $100 bills.



danmooncake
post Jun 12 2013, 10:53 PM

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Oh..I think market wants to go red! Nice!

Down baby Down!! brows.gif
yok70
post Jun 12 2013, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 12 2013, 10:53 PM)
Oh..I think market wants to go red!  Nice!

Down baby Down!!  brows.gif
*
wrong timing to buy.
hold back and wait. biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 13 2013, 12:11 AM

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Nice! My angpows are here... thumbup.gif
yok70
post Jun 13 2013, 02:42 AM

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1600 coming...another 1% drop gaw dim! biggrin.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 13 2013, 03:18 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 13 2013, 02:42 AM)
1600 coming...another 1% drop gaw dim!  biggrin.gif
*
Yeah, need for it to fail and drop to 1550.. I can untung big time if that happens by next month. drool.gif
yok70
post Jun 13 2013, 03:55 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 13 2013, 03:18 AM)
Yeah, need for it to fail and drop to 1550.. I can untung big time if that happens by next month.  drool.gif
*
this is the time to see bear awaken or not.
if this still cannot awake it, then shall give up on bear this year. laugh.gif
next week dunno fed will kacau the bear or not. tongue.gif
sp up 23% in one year. healthy correction would be....10-15%? that would be about 1415-1500. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Jun 13 2013, 04:00 AM
danmooncake
post Jun 13 2013, 04:07 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 13 2013, 03:55 AM)
this is the time to see bear awaken or not.
if this still cannot awake it, then shall give up on bear this year.  laugh.gif
next week dunno fed will kacau the bear or not.  tongue.gif
sp up 23% in one year. healthy correction would be....10-15%? that would be about 1415-1500.  biggrin.gif
*
Yeah.. if we can get 10%-15% pullback, that would be nice!

Macrusin
post Jun 13 2013, 11:52 AM

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It is a good timing to enter US marker instead of Malaysia?
Bcoz Malaysia market is currently on bull condition isn't it?
Any recommendation stock in US that you would highly recommend?

countdown
post Jun 13 2013, 02:28 PM

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wow, Nikkei dropped 6%, will today EWJ follows thru?

This post has been edited by countdown: Jun 13 2013, 03:07 PM
countdown
post Jun 13 2013, 02:51 PM

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Funny metaphor....LOL

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-man-o...k=mw_home_kiosk

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