gark,

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VNQ&ql=1

VNQ YTD return is 8%

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VTI&ql=1

VTI YTD return is 10.98%

I do not trade.

Dreamer

I'm not sure about Japan. But I do not worry on China though. It's slowing down for sure, but in a good way so far. Consumers spending is still intact, that's an important sign of stability for its transformation from export to internal demand economy. Anyhow, I know it's still too early to make conclusion now.

QE Taper = Most Probable in Fed Meeting 17-18 Sept 2013 and Press Conference Call by Uncle Ben .. Why QE Taper?
Becos US Economy is getting / gradually better and can breathe without oxygen support.
End of Sept = Debt Limit .. Congress, Senate and White House will debate and battle again.

Expect at least 10% or more healthy correction. Market is overbought.. Wait VIX spike > 30pts and above.
Continue holding blue-chip and continue increase yr cash level to see any good bargain hunting.

This post has been edited by netmask8: Jun 11 2013, 11:07 PM

I'm about to lose it if it falls back below 440 but I'll lock in the profits if it happens.

-double post deleted-

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Jun 11 2013, 11:18 PM

The real problem is in banking sector and manufacturing sector of China.

The rising of chinese yuan recently kinda "forced" by USD rising indirectly causing a lot of manufacturing sector in really bad condition with their previous tiny profit margin. Most of the money by these entrepreneur flee away from real economic activity to unproductive economy such as goreng real estate market & etc. The local government in China had trouble to repay their money to banks institution in China, the only solution is to "borrow more to pay existing debt" method.

In US, totally opposite is happening, banking sector recovering while unemployment start going down. So it is not surprising the major trend will continue for another 2 year - 4 years ( with some minor correction in between, OK I am not trying to timing here , just my noobie guess). Actually I still dunno why people claim that US index in all high time bla bla bla, super overvalued compared to our market and some compare the index to gold price. In fact the overall market in just in P/E 10 - 11 though I know P/E is not a good indicator.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Jun 11 2013, 11:19 PM

We haven't got a $VIX > 30 for long time.. not since the serious street fighting in Greece against austerity.
If $vix goes to 30, I want to see -20% down from top! Not meager -10%.

IMO, the rising Yuan is so meager, it actually hasn't cause exports to diminish that much. But, the austerity measure in Europe is the major cause for the past few quarters, that China is seeing the declining exports to them, furthermore, China now is being put on the "extra' tariff by EU because they're dumping their goods. China got themselves to blame, they were clearly warned yet their State sponsored companies continue to get large substantial amount of subsidies to overproduce those solar panels.

Some of the China bulls were harping the 'bubble' isn't there but merely going to be tapered off with more restrictive lending by the govt and their govt wants a 'soft' landing. But, their financial market is in a death spiral for the past 3 years. Maybe there is a huge disconnect, maybe not but we all know we can't trust the financial statements published by the China-based companies in China because their 'dual' accounting reports.

If there is indeed a bubble, eventually, it will correct itself with a blow up.. it's about time the real estate there go kaboom with those ridiculous inflated prices.

Perhaps, Debt Limit = DeathLocked and lasted for weeks.
Debt cannot make/release payment, Panic, Fearful abt the consequences impact?
But, after some time hangout, politic compromise solution is found and market will continue sky limit records in DJIA/S&P/Nasdaq again.
Strategy
VIX = 23pts Pump in yr 30% cash reserve into equity
VIX = 28pts Pump in another 30% cash reserve
VIX = 33pts Pump in another 30% cash reserve
VIX above 33pts, "own judgement" on timing to enter the final 10% .. If like 2008/09 peak financial crisis, wait
for many years to recover yr portfolio.
Note = Cash Reserve is totally free of commitment/liability/debt payment. Not emergency 6mths-1 yrs cash reserve.

I'm new to stock market.
I have opened CIMB I trade account last few days.
I am planning to purchase Apple's stocks as my first holding stock.
Read previous posts, u guys are mentioned market in red now.
So, it's an good opportunities for me to buy in?
I would appreciate if you guys could give me some advice or recommendation

I don't mean to discourage you but newbie should stay clear of AAPL. I mean it.
Once you get burned, you'll never return.

Just pick a few less volatile ones or simply invest in general index like Dow (DIA) or SP500 (SPY) for now.

the problem is steve jobs is already dead.....

Ya oh, I was thinking Apple is currently gonna to launch a range of new products.
I thought it might be affected their share price rises once their products released in the market.

Bro, I looked at your quote column. It appeared that most of ur holding stocks are blue chips isn't it?
Correct me If I am wrong

For me, they are having trade wars now without a doubt.

The sponsor issue may not as simple as it seems. It is all about you know how to play the law. In US/ Europe, a lot of subsidy by US goverment in XYZ industry . Though China deserved to get the penalty, but for me doesn't mean the US/Europe doesn't subsidy in certain industry with is unfair to global trading too. That's why trade war is happening since 2-3 years ago, everyone complaining to WTO, keep find another country's evidence of unfair global trading etc. China is still up to level in this "game", and end up got the penalty.

The restrictive of lending and raising interest rate only can cooling down a bit but not deflate the price of Real Estate. Manufacturing sectors / entrepreneurs are experiencing very difficult period at the moment. Plus, some of the extra penalty from US, if we talking about solar panels industry in particular, the almost 70% of the solar panels related forced to closed down.
It seems like the next country will be in trouble is either in Japan / China / Europe.

Yes the accounting reports/ statements heavily manipulated even those listed in H shares. Close to 90% of my portfolio are holding these Chinese Banks even though I knew what's wrong with their financial report.

Instead of Kaboom, my prediction that Chinese market will go at least another 3-5 years with this situation. the shape is like U shape..long recovery.....
Unlike in US, We experienced a V shaped/ W shaped recovery. Normally Kaboom will happen only if almost everyone didn't expecting crash will be coming, instead now a lot of Big Boys firm like goldman sachs etc short heavily in Chinese stocks / Asian Stocks, the chinese market is already close to 5 years lowest. Maybe I am too optimistic here

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Jun 12 2013, 06:26 PM

yea

Waah.. you're playing very dangerous game. That's too much in one sector alone.

For me, I don't buy and hold Chinese related stocks anymore.. all of them usually trade (usually short side) and go and most of them have either have low PE or extremely high PE. No middle ground.

Sure man, they'll launch new products. But, market is not kind to those new products if it is just another cycle.
Take a look at share price before iPhone5 launch last Sept. Fast fwd 3 months (one quarter) later and their BIGGEST quarter
when they're expecting to have the biggest earnings in Q1 2013. So, what happened?

Thanks for your advice man. But I insist my decision. Very stubborn .