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> US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 02:39 AM

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I'm watching from this here.
http://www.businessinsider.com/live-apple-wwdc-2013-6
danmooncake
post Jun 11 2013, 02:43 AM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
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Air drop look cool! Looks like they're chasing after Samsung bump phone feature. laugh.gif
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 02:55 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jun 11 2013, 02:43 AM)
Air drop look cool!  Looks like they're chasing after Samsung bump phone feature.  laugh.gif
*
i don't mind copying. just make sure to implement it better. laugh.gif
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 03:02 AM

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apple turns red.
investors don't like what they hear so far? biggrin.gif
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 03:07 AM

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The meeting is 4 days or 1 day?
That's it? Close? shocking.gif
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 03:39 AM

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Bought 1st batch of Apple at 438. sweat.gif

countdown
post Jun 11 2013, 06:38 PM

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*deleted*

This post has been edited by countdown: Jun 11 2013, 08:37 PM
LOWYAT3AB
post Jun 11 2013, 09:19 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 11 2013, 03:39 AM)
Bought 1st batch of Apple at 438.  sweat.gif
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APPL is likely to trade in the range of 440 to 455 until it breaks out up or down.

Just my observation. Not buy/sell recommendation.
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(LOWYAT3AB @ Jun 11 2013, 09:19 PM)
APPL is likely to trade in the range of 440 to 455 until it breaks out up or down.

Just my observation. Not buy/sell recommendation.
*
oops, wrong timing.
market all red now. tongue.gif
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 10:08 PM

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I was wondering. If QE exits, are those money invested around the world, especially emerging markets, will fly back to US? If that's the case, isn't Dow suppose to be bullish? Well they might be worrying on growth sustainability without QE. People always worry on things. laugh.gif

gark
post Jun 11 2013, 10:10 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 11 2013, 10:08 PM)
I was wondering. If QE exits, are those money invested around the world, especially emerging markets, will fly back to US? If that's the case, isn't Dow suppose to be bullish? Well they might be worrying on growth sustainability without QE. People always worry on things.  laugh.gif
*
Thats what i am wondering. All the money is leaving equity, bonds and comoddities... to where? rclxub.gif

I suspect all these money leaving all the investments are borrowed money... which they are repaying since bond yield are dropping and interest rising. hmm.gif
dreamer101
post Jun 11 2013, 10:20 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jun 11 2013, 10:10 PM)
Thats what i am wondering. All the money is leaving equity, bonds and comoddities... to where? rclxub.gif

I suspect all these money leaving all the investments are borrowed money... which they are repaying since bond yield are dropping and interest rising. hmm.gif
*
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/

<< - YTD, the equity markets have been well led by the US, in fact emerging markets have been trailing ... suffice to say that most of the Asian markets which have been surging so far this year have been an anomaly, which further depresses the real performance of other emerging markets.

- We know the financial markets have been awashed in liquidity with QEs from various central banks, but where have they been headed. The YTD figures are again revealing, some have exited gold in a big way. Them taking money off gold may be just profit taking or likely to mean they are more comfortable that currencies won't be debased anymore, or that bailouts have finally went past a peak. The reduction of fear or volatility could be another reason.

- So where is the liquidity? They went largely into US stocks, US REITs and even foreign REITs. The REITs interest is but a reflection in a strong bottoming in property price correction and a resurrection of demand, and also a hint that people are more employable even now to take up new mortgages, and/or that a lot more PE/VC/vulture funds are taking advantage and making deals on distressed commercial properties.

- Look at crude oil, one month, YTD or 1 year even, that is a good reflection about the robustness (or lack of) of the global economic recovery. The recovery is benign and in patches still.

- Look at commodities, again the same conclusion as for crude oil, still working of excess inventory in the global system.

- Look at the emerging equity markets from 1 year ago, there has been a dramatic shift away from emerging markets back to US and possibly Japanese stocks. Again the robust performance of other Asian equity markets is very telling as it is viewed as largely unscathed and the equity markets there do attract sufficient interest compared to other emerging markets.

- The most important point one has to conclude is a drastic shift away from bonds of all kind. Bonds have been great on a 3 year basis but more funds are moving out. They move out because they either think there is a bubble there (too safe, and too many people willing to pay too high a price for low yields) and/or equity provides a better return even after accounting for risk.

From the above, I am quite confident that the current sell down in equities will be brief.>>

gark,

Some idea....

Dreamer
gark
post Jun 11 2013, 10:29 PM

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QUOTE(dreamer101 @ Jun 11 2013, 10:20 PM)
http://malaysiafinance.blogspot.com/

<< - YTD, the equity markets have been well led by the US, in fact emerging markets have been trailing ... suffice to say that most of the Asian markets which have been surging so far this year have been an anomaly, which further depresses the real performance of other emerging markets.

- We know the financial markets have been awashed in liquidity with QEs from various central banks, but where have they been headed. The YTD figures are again revealing, some have exited gold in a big way. Them taking money off gold may be just profit taking or likely to mean they are more comfortable that currencies won't be debased anymore, or that bailouts have finally went past a peak. The reduction of fear or volatility could be another reason.

- So where is the liquidity? They went largely into US stocks, US REITs and even foreign REITs. The REITs interest is but a reflection in a strong bottoming in property price correction and a resurrection of demand, and also a hint that people are more employable even now to take up new mortgages, and/or that a lot more PE/VC/vulture funds are taking advantage and making deals on distressed commercial properties.

- Look at crude oil, one month, YTD or 1 year even, that is a good reflection about the robustness (or lack of) of the global economic recovery. The recovery is benign and in patches still.

- Look at commodities, again the same conclusion as for crude oil, still working of excess inventory in the global system.

- Look at the emerging equity markets from 1 year ago, there has been a dramatic shift away from emerging markets back to US and possibly Japanese stocks. Again the robust performance of other Asian equity markets is very telling as it is viewed as largely unscathed and the equity markets there do attract sufficient interest compared to other emerging markets.

- The most important point one has to conclude is a drastic shift away from bonds of all kind. Bonds have been great on a 3 year basis but more funds are moving out. They move out because they either think there is a bubble there (too safe, and too many people willing to pay too high a price for low yields) and/or equity provides a better return even after accounting for risk.

From the above, I am quite confident that the current sell down in equities will be brief.>>

gark,

Some idea....

Dreamer
*
Yeah, but reits and us stocks are getting slammed as well.. hmm.gif
foofoosasa
post Jun 11 2013, 10:30 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 11 2013, 10:08 PM)
I was wondering. If QE exits, are those money invested around the world, especially emerging markets, will fly back to US? If that's the case, isn't Dow suppose to be bullish? Well they might be worrying on growth sustainability without QE. People always worry on things.  laugh.gif
*
That is already happened. Look at USD vs other currency ( with China exception). Stock index especially ASX , and Nikkei been dropping quite a lot lately. So some profit taking from table already happened few weeks ago.

I read a news somewhere Chinese Government start doing investment in US real estate ( The way how japan did it in late 1970's to early 1980's ).Maybe many of them re-enter real estate market? or just sitting their cash in bank? hmm.gif
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 10:32 PM

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If so, then profit taking is just increasing cash in investors' hands. You and I hold more and more cash in hands waiting, banks also receiving more cash in hands after investors paying back their "loan".
All these cash has no place to go, but to invest back later.
If that's the case, what dream said kind of make sense. The correction will be brief. The bull is still winning over the bear.
hmm.gif
countdown
post Jun 11 2013, 10:32 PM

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dia gap closing..

if can break thru 151.65 then it can close safely.

This post has been edited by countdown: Jun 11 2013, 10:34 PM
yok70
post Jun 11 2013, 10:35 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Jun 11 2013, 10:30 PM)
That is already happened. Look at USD vs other currency ( with China exception).  Stock index especially ASX , and Nikkei been dropping quite a lot lately. So some profit taking from table already happened few weeks ago.

I read a news somewhere Chinese Government start doing investment in US real estate ( The way how japan did it in late 1970's to early 1980's ).Maybe many of them re-enter real estate market? or just sitting their cash in bank?  hmm.gif
*
if they start buying real estate, i guess sign of recovery is quite intact.
bull all the way til year end? laugh.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 11 2013, 10:39 PM

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Got some AAPL calls in the 435... I'm holding here, and moving up my stop.
Market in red but AAPL good for now. laugh.gif
danmooncake
post Jun 11 2013, 10:43 PM

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Guys,

Bears won't wake up until DOW below 15k or SP500 below 1600.
So, bulls here still got advantage.

IMO, market is overbought this year.. I like to see a selldown of at least 10% or more! drool.gif

Come 'mon sell sell sell. brows.gif

foofoosasa
post Jun 11 2013, 10:43 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jun 11 2013, 10:35 PM)
if they start buying real estate, i guess sign of recovery is quite intact.
bull all the way til year end?  laugh.gif
*
I dunno man. tongue.gif I just hold my holding and do nothing while keep increasing my cash reserve.

The recovery really quite intact in US, but in China and Japan...the opposite happened. The economic well-being made by US will always cost something to other big economies such as Japan and China.

hmm.gif

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Jun 11 2013, 10:46 PM

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