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 US stock discussion v4, Bulls-Bears HUAT AH!! Pigs get slaughter

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danmooncake
post Nov 3 2011, 11:49 PM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
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QUOTE(honglun @ Nov 3 2011, 10:40 PM)
Hm...anyone have any idea how to short Euro? Particularly French Banks? Checked our their ADRs and some ETFs. Mostly are low volume stuff. Anything with some recognizable volume?
*
Check out ticker: EUO

Be aware, this is a leverage inverse ETF.


Added on November 8, 2011, 8:46 pmThoughts for SP500 for Nov 7th to Nov 11th

SP500 - Support at 1250, Resistance at 1298. Approx. 50 pts range play.
LVS: Support 45.50 Resistance: 49.50, approx $4 play.

If you're bull, just buy as close to support.
If you're bear, just short as close to resistance.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 8 2011, 08:46 PM
jerrychoo2004
post Nov 9 2011, 05:44 PM

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tonight seems like DJ going to be red sad.gif
danmooncake
post Nov 10 2011, 02:27 AM

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QUOTE(jerrychoo2004 @ Nov 9 2011, 05:44 PM)
tonight seems like DJ going to be red sad.gif
*
Loving this volatility.. $VIX goes back above 30. biggrin.gif

Short term trade:
Top part now: 1280 (sell area)
Bottom at: 1225 (buy area)



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 10 2011, 02:29 AM
prophetjul
post Nov 10 2011, 09:02 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Sep 27 2011, 09:07 AM)
Would touch financials with a 20 foot pole at the mo.........
*
Still not touch financials with a 20 footer.........

HBC $39.99 -$3.81 -8.7% OUCH! sweat.gif
danmooncake
post Nov 11 2011, 06:36 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 10 2011, 09:02 AM)
Still not touch financials with a 20 footer.........

HBC $39.99  -$3.81  -8.7%  OUCH!   sweat.gif
*
Prophet:
Agree with you. The financials still got no love despite the rally from SP 1075.
Most likely it is because of Europe. It is the most sector hated now.

I'm watching for commodities like miners and oil to rally up. Oil seems to be moving first.
The copper, gold and silver miners have yet to make their move.




SKY 1809
post Nov 11 2011, 08:04 AM

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This thread is in semi retirement stage.

Too bearish or most people lost interest in Dow ?

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Nov 11 2011, 08:05 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 11 2011, 08:25 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Nov 11 2011, 08:04 AM)
This thread is in semi retirement stage.
Too bearish or most people lost interest in Dow ?
*
I think those who were playing the Dow were making too much money or they got smacked down badly
and hiding in the bunker now. I'm betting the latter.

The volatility shook off a lot of people who were in the market since August. Now, Europe trumps everything.

Dow recovers some but still hasn't safely cross above that 200MA line. So, basically any less than stellar news will definitely take us back to prior year price.

Nevertheless, I'm still here.

Let's roll. biggrin.gif

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 11 2011, 08:26 AM
simonc
post Nov 11 2011, 08:32 AM

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Keep it rolling biggrin.gif
prophetjul
post Nov 11 2011, 08:38 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 11 2011, 06:36 AM)
Prophet:
Agree with you. The financials still got no love despite the rally from SP 1075.
Most likely it is because of Europe. It is the most sector hated now.

I'm watching for commodities like miners and oil to rally up. Oil seems to be moving first.
The copper, gold and silver miners have yet to make their move.
*
Not just Euro banks.........dont bet that U.S banks are not affected!
We just dont know how involved are they is debt swaps and what not? They sure like those
worthless vehicles...anything to make a dollar more.
Look at HSBC, still badly affected by U.S housing after all these yaers and its not stopping...the debtors
are not paying! How to pay when you dont have jobs?

QUOTE
HSBC said it was sticking to its plan to cut costs by $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion by the end of 2013, including eliminating 30,000 jobs, and would continue to scale back some businesses in slower growing regions, including Poland. But it also said that its mortgage business in the United States, the former Household International subprime lender, was weighing on the group’s earnings again.

Iain J. Mackay, the finance chief, said in a conference call Wednesday that “there is an increasing number of people who stopped paying us,” forcing HSBC to take further charges for loan losses. HSBC set aside $3.89 billion for bad loans and other risk provisions in the quarter, up from $3.15 billion in the year-earlier period, mainly because of its business in North America.

HSBC started to wind down the U.S. mortgage portfolio about four years ago after billions of dollars in loan losses that forced management to admit the acquisition of Household in 2003 was a mistake. The mortgage book is currently worth about $50 billion. Delinquency rates on the loans — those with missed payments of 360 days or more — were the highest since the last quarter of 2009, Mr. Mackay said.

“Customers realized that if they stop paying, there’s very little we or other banks can do,” Mr. Mackay said. “This is an emerging trend. We monitor it very closely.”
HSBC’s shares fell 5.95 percent in London on Wednesday. They have dropped 22 percent this year, less than those of Deutsche Bank and Barclays, because investors have remained confident about HSBC’s large business in faster-growing regions like China.


http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/11/09/hsb...rofit-rises-66/



QUOTE
LONDON (Reuters) - HSBC gave its starkest warning to date that new regulations might force it to leave Britain and said its U.S. bad debts had jumped as more homeowners stopped payments on their mortgages.

Europe's biggest bank on Wednesday reported a 36 percent fall in third quarter profits as the euro zone debt crisis hit investment bank income, while strains in the U.S. economy saw bad debts there jump by almost $1 billion, the first rise in two years.



QUOTE
Eurozone debt crisis: HSBC reveal 23% slide in earnings from investment banking


HSBC underlined the impact of the eurozone debt crisis today after revealing a 23% slide in earnings from investment banking.

The bank, which employs around 50,000 staff in the UK, said its Global Banking and Markets division saw third-quarter revenues fall to 3.2 billion US dollars (£1.9 billion) from 4.2 billion US dollars (£2.6 billion) a year ago as uncertainty on the continent took hold.

The group, which has slashed its headcount by 5,000 since March, also saw its bad debt charges rise to 3.8 billion US dollars (£2.4 billion), from 3.1 billion US dollars (£1.9 billion) a year ago, due to worsening housing market conditions in the US.
HSBC, which reported a 34% drop in underlying group profits in the three months to September 30 to 3 billion US dollars (£1.8 billion), said it faced a challenging outlook as problems in developed markets hit growth rates around the world.

The bank joins a long list of financial firms hit by turbulence in the markets, triggered by uncertainty in Europe, including Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.


This post has been edited by prophetjul: Nov 11 2011, 08:41 AM
danmooncake
post Nov 11 2011, 08:39 AM

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QUOTE(simonc @ Nov 11 2011, 08:32 AM)
Keep it rolling biggrin.gif
*
I'm betting more south side move this week than north side.

What's your bet? whistling.gif


Added on November 11, 2011, 8:48 am
QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 11 2011, 08:38 AM)
Not just Euro banks.........dont bet that U.S banks are not affected!
We just dont know how involved are they is debt swaps and what not? They sure like those
worthless vehicles...anything to make a dollar more.
Look at HSBC, still badly affected by U.S housing after all these yaers and its not stopping...the debtors
are not paying!  How to pay when you dont have jobs? 
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2011/11/09/hsb...rofit-rises-66/
*
Yes.. I know. But, the US banks aren't hemorrhaging cash anymore but their earnings aren't used to be.
It may take some years for them to go back to the previous valuation.

BAC, C, etc.. Even JPM, one of the strongest got smacked down pretty bad.








This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 11 2011, 08:48 AM
prophetjul
post Nov 11 2011, 08:52 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 11 2011, 08:39 AM)
I'm betting more south side move this week than north side.

What's your bet?  whistling.gif


Added on November 11, 2011, 8:48 am

Yes.. I know. But, the US banks aren't hemorrhaging cash anymore but their earnings aren't used to be.
It may take some years for them to go back to the previous valuation.

BAC, C, etc.. Even JPM, one of the strongest got smacked down pretty bad.
*
Maybe not the investment bankers as they are usually the crooked lot........but whatta abiut
commercial banks

Remember what The HSBC head mentioned:

“there is an increasing number of people who stopped paying us,”

"Delinquency rates on the loans — those with missed payments of 360 days or more — were the highest since the last quarter of 2009, "

“Customers realized that if they stop paying, there’s very little we or other banks can do,” Mr. Mackay said. “This is an emerging trend. We monitor it very closely.”

AND at the same time, they are cutting jobs.........meaning vicious circle......the bad debtors wil start to go up...
danmooncake
post Nov 11 2011, 09:11 AM

Market Up, Market Down...Wheee..
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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Nov 11 2011, 08:52 AM)
Maybe not the investment bankers as they are usually the crooked lot........but whatta abiut
commercial banks

Remember what The HSBC head mentioned:

“there is an increasing number of people who stopped paying us,”

"Delinquency rates on the loans — those with missed payments of 360 days or more — were the highest since the last quarter of 2009, "

“Customers realized that if they stop paying, there’s very little we or other banks can do,” Mr. Mackay said. “This is an emerging trend. We monitor it very closely.”

AND at the same time, they are cutting jobs.........meaning vicious circle......the bad debtors wil start to go up...
*
The commercial banks with house loans to those people with less than stellar credit are definitely paying the price now.
I don't think they will stop the bleeding until home price stablise and start to gain again.

Now the average US homes are cheaper than KL (for comparable sq footage).
I'm thinking of buying one. whistling.gif



prophetjul
post Nov 11 2011, 09:15 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 11 2011, 09:11 AM)
I'm thinking of buying one.  whistling.gif
*
Good for you! biggrin.gif
simonc
post Nov 11 2011, 09:37 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 11 2011, 08:39 AM)
I'm betting more south side move this week than north side.

What's your bet?  whistling.gif

*
Slowly cooking waiting for flashover hmm.gif

TSsulifeisgreat
post Nov 11 2011, 10:44 AM

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WTF do u mean by hiding in bunker & this thread is in semi retirement stage?
we here r no farking daytraders, we r here for the long term to earn the monkey, not the peanuts brows.gif
I won't be here much, as sky1809 alwiz says, there is only 1 forumer in this thread laugh.gif

the dow has not even went below 10k doh.gif anyone bought during the low, got SO MUCH BUFFER tongue.gif wats the worry?
those who bought high & were killed during early part of the year, they now waiting for it to reach their buying price
BUT IT IS IMPOSSIBLE at the moment due to overhead resistance, TA gamblers should know better shakehead.gif

Singapore billionaire Peter Lim, dubbed the “Remisier King”
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?f...84&sec=business

Mr Lim is ranked Singapore's eighth richest man by Forbes Asia with a net worth of US$1.6 billion. Mr Lim, who made his fortune in the stock market. Lim became a stockbroker for mainly Indonesian clients. His successful returns earned him the nickname "Remisier King"
http://www.masteryourfinance.com/forum/php...2b2926b600d8b7f

Ironically, Mr Lim, who was one of Singapore's leading stockbrokers and is now a private investor, does not monitor the stock market every day

Another key reason for his success, he said, is patience.....does not subscribe to buying one day and selling the next to cash in.


His advice to young investors: 'You have to invest with a longer-term mindset. You buy a good stock, leave it there for 10 years. Come 10 years, this dollar can be many, many multiples. 'I think the trick is really to think long-term.
' You may not have a lot of money, but you have a lot of time.'

http://www.sgwayoflife.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=5136

QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 11 2011, 08:25 AM)
I think those who were playing the Dow were making too much money or they got smacked down badly
and hiding in the bunker now. I'm betting the latter. 

The volatility shook off a lot of people who were in the market since August. Now, Europe trumps everything.

Dow recovers some but still hasn't safely cross above that 200MA line. So, basically any less than stellar news will definitely take us back to prior year price.

Nevertheless, I'm still here.

Let's roll.  biggrin.gif
*
Myoswee
post Nov 11 2011, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 11 2011, 08:39 AM)
I'm betting more south side move this week than north side.

What's your bet?  whistling.gif


Added on November 11, 2011, 8:48 am

Yes.. I know. But, the US banks aren't hemorrhaging cash anymore but their earnings aren't used to be.
It may take some years for them to go back to the previous valuation.

BAC, C, etc.. Even JPM, one of the strongest got smacked down pretty bad.
*
My bet will be on the down side too rclxms.gif

We've seen a lower high, lets make it a lower low tonight thumbup.gif thumbup.gif
SKY 1809
post Nov 11 2011, 12:57 PM

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Added on November 11, 2011, 12:59 pm
QUOTE(danmooncake @ Nov 11 2011, 08:25 AM)
I think those who were playing the Dow were making too much money or they got smacked down badly
and hiding in the bunker now. I'm betting the latter. 

The volatility shook off a lot of people who were in the market since August. Now, Europe trumps everything.

Dow recovers some but still hasn't safely cross above that 200MA line. So, basically any less than stellar news will definitely take us back to prior year price.

Nevertheless, I'm still here.

Let's roll.  biggrin.gif
*
You are the one here I respect most, be it bull or bear.

Thanks

This post has been edited by SKY 1809: Nov 11 2011, 01:43 PM
machoman_13
post Nov 11 2011, 04:23 PM

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US stock market still the "Dai Lou" in the world and it always impact the whole world market. To have a consolidate view on US, UK, AU, Canada, Singapore, Malaysia share market.

Go to: http://www.i3investor.com/


SKY 1809
post Nov 11 2011, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(machoman_13 @ Nov 11 2011, 04:23 PM)
US stock market still the "Dai Lou" in the world and it always impact the whole world market. To have a consolidate view on US, UK, AU, Canada, Singapore, Malaysia share market.

Go to: http://www.i3investor.com/
*
Waw, you are divesting the traffic here to your blog, never give face one.
yok70
post Nov 11 2011, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(machoman_13 @ Nov 11 2011, 04:23 PM)
US stock market still the "Dai Lou" in the world and it always impact the whole world market. To have a consolidate view on US, UK, AU, Canada, Singapore, Malaysia share market.

Go to: http://www.i3investor.com/
*
Their TP updates seem quite slow and limited resource. Even if I consider it only includes articles coming from the edge, business times and the star online, it still not fully covered.
They should just write a program to automatically "create articles/TP" by pulling information from the above 3 online websites, in that way the info will be up to date and fully covered according to their refresh rate (say, pulling info every 1 hour? Then your website should be at most late by only 1 hour).
nod.gif

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