QUOTE(cRiXaLis @ Jul 28 2011, 04:18 PM)
The us economy on housing bubble was not on interest rate.
It was majorly on leveraging deposits and future paper trading. They went to nonsensical levels. I know you know so good for you but its not that simple as to blame low interest. Keep it simple
Interest is for managing inflation period. Back to Aud, their currency strength does no reflect their economy. This is a biggie on basing on fundamentals
crixalisIf interest rate is low, leveraging cost is low too.
Interest rate, hard to find good return, so people find way to make better return.
If stock div yield is 5%, while borrowing cost is only 2%, it drives people to do leverage, can get 3% net return with free money, (you don't even need to fork out a single cent).
Same with properties.
If mortgage rate is low, people tend to buy more properties, eventually drive up leverage as well.
Mortgage rate is 3-4%, can you can rent out with 5% yield, people may say you are fool not to buy properties.
This pile on and on, and complacency happened, prime loan cannot loan out anymore, subprime also take.
If there is no 1% interest rate, instead 5%, there is less tendency of over-leveraged, and may reduce/minimise what had happened.
If there is 5% rate, it may drive some people to put money into the deposit, instead housing, leveraging derivatives.
Just like saving account now, mostly 0.1~0.2% across, most people now, do not bother to deposit money into saving account. It is like a useless account now.
We can say low interest rate is not direct culprit (the direct culprit is greed), but we cannot deny low interest rate is a strong or initial pushing force for leveraging.