I felt that It will drop after hit 0.28....

by switching it, I can buy back some at a lower price.... eg. 0.25

anyway, plan to go to Kenanga growth fund .... lower fee.

Funds that have foreign exposure will only be updated in the next trading day (usual by noon). Only locally traded funds are updated within the same trading days.

for saving account - no issue.
for current acc - maybe the policy is diff as informed.

For those interested to get some good entry point for Mutual Fund.

Today ending KLCI at 143x area.

It will be nice to split your fund into 3 parts.

1 portion, you can head into it at 1400
2nd portion, if the CI continues to go lower, you might take 1370.
Last portion, if 1340.

This is just my opinion only.

You might want to change the entry point to different level though.

not need to switch just top up to get average price PSDF.

my suggestion only.

Buy PIX?

I was thinking first portion around 1300.
2nd-800
3rd-500

Currently still 70% bond 30% equity though.

Wah.. Until 500? Need or not oh?

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Added on September 14, 2011, 6:54 pmBuy PIX, is the fastest de lo if KLCI up

This post has been edited by Bonescythe: Sep 14 2011, 06:54 PM

Maybe prepare a little bit for 500points kua. Unlikely to happen i guess.

Hm.. Mois' triggers actually do-able leh but tweak a bit lar

1st point triggered bought in
continue falling

2nd point triggered bought in
continue falling BUT doesnt hit 3rd point of 500

Instead goes up past 2nd point's trigger say about 3% higher, buy in lar coz going up (strengthening market) and still of value mar

Worse case if KLCI does fall to 500, bro Mois would have another 33% of ammo to buy
Tiuk boh?

Of course same flexibility can apply if fall doesnt hit 2nd point trigger and same reasoning as above.
Just a thought.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 14 2011, 07:19 PM

I think I know already what is bearish trend (now!).
Just, I wonder how you determine that the bearish "get into accumulation trend" ?

Heheh - different folks have different calculations to arrive at the 6 phases of a cycle (recovery, accumulation, bullish, warning, distribution and bearish) and even different time-length.

Generally, as i'm aware (i may NOT be that AWARE ar ), there's:
a. short term (20days+/-)
b. mid term (50 days+/-)
c. long term (200days+/-)

For example talking about KLCI trend:
Based on how the 20days moving average (MA) of KLCI VS 50days MA of KLCI VS current end of day (EOD) of KLCI is, U get the short-mid term trend
Based on how the 50dma VS 200dma VS EOD, U get the mid-long trend

For example of calculation (using the TrendAdvisor book's formula):
IF EOD<50DMA AND EOD>200DMA AND 50DMA>200DMA = Warning mid-long trend
IF EOD<50DMA AND EOD<200DMA AND 50DMA>200DMA = Distribution mid-long trend
IF EOD<50DMA AND EOD<200DMA AND 50DMA<200DMA = Bearish mid-long trend

If U look at the example above, U'll notice the logic (moving from Warning to Bearish) that the fall becomes steeper and steeper.
Similar REVERSE situation for Recovery-->Accumulation-->Bullish

Please note that a trend does NOT go straight down or up, but there is very high probability it'll shift to either "left" or "right" or stay on current trend

REFERENCE: recovery <--> accumulation <--> bullish <--> warning <--> distribution <--> bearish<-->recovery
eg.
Say we're in a bearish trend now
There is high probability that it'll stay in bearish trend (still falling like a stone)
OR slow down while still falling (moving left to distribution)
OR hit bottom and flat line and crawl slowly up (moving right, to recovery)

Note:
+ve trend = recovery (flat line and crawling up), accumulation (steeper climb up), bullish (holy kaka steep climb up)
-ve trend = warning (flat line and crawling down), distribution (steeper fall down), bearish(holy kaka steep fall down)

Quick quiz
Thus, based on probability AND value, the best time to get into equities IF one doesnt have any running investment program is?
AND
if one doesnt have any proper plans (ie. main tikam) when bought in earlier, when would be the best time to get/stay out?


Oh crap.. i just noticed this thing is in PM thread/topic. Most mutual fund investors arent Trend users but i know some agencies are and some (note only some) are adept at getting their customers in/out of equities and into bonds. Please note that i'm not advocating that U use Trend as a tool blindly. I'm sharing it here for U to digest and see if it fits what U want to learn/use and then go do your own entry/exit plans yar. Your mileage may vary and U may have better methodologies

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 14 2011, 09:28 PM

totally newbie here
skim thru some pages and see few posts mentioned to use EPF to buy funds

just curious
let say EPF annual interest 5%
is it meant that these funds very ez to outperform EPF?

Thanks .... but, I don't really understand ... haha

Although I've google what 'moving average' mean, just understand it so-so. So, conclude, its an average of price on the duration.
So, the best time get into equity market is during 'recovery' or 'bearish' period

A good half hour just to understand 1 post .

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Added on September 14, 2011, 10:38 pmCan we get the data for moving average (MA) anywhere or Mr. Wong, you do it with your spreadsheet?

This post has been edited by koinibler: Sep 14 2011, 10:38 PM

From QFR, most (NOT ALL) PM equity fund has around 12% annualized return for 10 years.

So, the PROBABILITY is there.

Hopefully, 10 years is a short time for you.

If drop to 500, it will be repeat of 1997, not 2008 already.
That time KLCI 1200 to 200, now 1500 to 500.. 1000 points out of the market.

Coffin shop will be opened 24/7 because there will be a lot of people giving business already, lolz.

I had a few personal friend who is investing with me, now waiting to poach for the good chance. Also same plan, the fund split to 3 part, no DCA in this case.
Once reach 125x, first 33% in.
Then, 1100, another 33%
Below 1000, another 33%

Goes below 800, OD and other financial support tools will come in to hoot..

I believe if he hug this for around 2 years.. Will become half millionaire.

ya,its was proven by some funds. the returns wil higher then EPF over the time.

PM me if u need any guides. go to EPF scheme in my signature.

EPF no use already lar.
Those who got EPF, u can opt to cash them out and put them into mutual fund already (But with a condition, invest at the right timing)

The reason I encourage you to cash out EPF is because EPF is being abused by the high ranking people.
EPF is used to fried shares that are held by cronies. Eating up at premium prices. This is very pathetic, because those are our money.

2008 to 2010, market return more than 70% in general, some reaching more than 100%, but what did EPF give u back in return? The latest yield is 5%++.. Don't you think this is pathetic? How they use your money to joke around.

But remember.. Any investment, do not do it in a hastily manner. Timing is important. If you are greedy now, you are going to eat your own greediness only.

Timing is the key.. Remember.

Good precaution, any investments U do with EPF, even for paying down mortgage or education with A/c 2 should beat 5%pa with a healthy margin.

Having said that, some funds do perform better & some worse than EPF's 5%, based on historical performances of 3, 5 and 10 years. Be aware that one loses 0.25% to 3% straight away when moving $ from EPF to mutual funds. Thus, time * good long term performing funds are required to beat 5%pa compounded.

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Added on September 15, 2011, 6:40 amHehe sorry yar. I usually don't spoon feed, thus I expect ppl to Google a bit for basic stuff like moving averages . TQ for taking the time & effort to understand.

Best time to get in based totally on Trend = accumulation phase
Coz either left/right/stay in same phase = still going up, remember the high probabilities?

Best time to get in based on Trend & value = recovery phase. U r spot on
Best time to get out based totally on Trend = distribution phase
Coz either left/right/stay in same phase = still going down.

Raw data for personal tracking of trends can be from newspapers for KLCI EOD points or exported from stock booking online systems. For specific mutual funds trend, U can get NAV from online or yr agent with access to price history system. Throw these EOD / NAV into an Excel and cook . Please be aware when cooking fund's NAV that the during distribution of dividends, it will does the trend downwards & thus, U may get faked out that it's in a -ve trend

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 15 2011, 06:40 AM