Heheh - different folks have different calculations to arrive at the 6 phases of a cycle (recovery, accumulation, bullish, warning, distribution and bearish) and even different time-length.

Generally, as i'm aware (i may NOT be that AWARE ar ), there's:
a. short term (20days+/-)
b. mid term (50 days+/-)
c. long term (200days+/-)

For example talking about KLCI trend:
Based on how the 20days moving average (MA) of KLCI VS 50days MA of KLCI VS current end of day (EOD) of KLCI is, U get the short-mid term trend
Based on how the 50dma VS 200dma VS EOD, U get the mid-long trend

For example of calculation (using the TrendAdvisor book's formula):
IF EOD<50DMA AND EOD>200DMA AND 50DMA>200DMA = Warning mid-long trend
IF EOD<50DMA AND EOD<200DMA AND 50DMA>200DMA = Distribution mid-long trend
IF EOD<50DMA AND EOD<200DMA AND 50DMA<200DMA = Bearish mid-long trend

If U look at the example above, U'll notice the logic (moving from Warning to Bearish) that the fall becomes steeper and steeper.
Similar REVERSE situation for Recovery-->Accumulation-->Bullish

Please note that a trend does NOT go straight down or up, but there is very high probability it'll shift to either "left" or "right" or stay on current trend

REFERENCE: recovery <--> accumulation <--> bullish <--> warning <--> distribution <--> bearish<-->recovery
eg.
Say we're in a bearish trend now
There is high probability that it'll stay in bearish trend (still falling like a stone)
OR slow down while still falling (moving left to distribution)
OR hit bottom and flat line and crawl slowly up (moving right, to recovery)

Note:
+ve trend = recovery (flat line and crawling up), accumulation (steeper climb up), bullish (holy kaka steep climb up)
-ve trend = warning (flat line and crawling down), distribution (steeper fall down), bearish(holy kaka steep fall down)

Quick quiz
Thus, based on probability AND value, the best time to get into equities IF one doesnt have any running investment program is?
AND
if one doesnt have any proper plans (ie. main tikam) when bought in earlier, when would be the best time to get/stay out?


Oh crap.. i just noticed this thing is in PM thread/topic. Most mutual fund investors arent Trend users but i know some agencies are and some (note only some) are adept at getting their customers in/out of equities and into bonds. Please note that i'm not advocating that U use Trend as a tool blindly. I'm sharing it here for U to digest and see if it fits what U want to learn/use and then go do your own entry/exit plans yar. Your mileage may vary and U may have better methodologies