QUOTE(cranx @ Sep 8 2011, 11:57 AM)
when/if the bubble bursts. it doesnt matter if it is a mature township with most properties fully paid off.
prices will go down, the further price gone down, the lesser people are interested and the bad cycle continues. (people who waited for the bubble to burst will still not buy, the waiting game will continue for the bottom of the market.)
ofcourse there is no need to sell if the properties are fully paid off, but if there is any intention of selling the price will need to be reasonable. we cant really ask for the sky anymore.
i cant see reason of lesser people interested to buy property in Klang valley, be it good or bad market. If ever there was bubble burst, it wont spread across the board, if a retired uncle who can afford to have his few properties empty/remained unsold now, he can have it empty by then too. I have been staying in Kepong area more then 10 yrs, many neighbourhood here, one can surely find at least 10% of houses vacant and not intended for sale. Some dun even bother to rent it out
Looked back at 2008, when every1 so worried about the impact of US financial crisis, volatile of stock market, many out there claimed Cash is King, dun invest bla bla...quielty many shift their attention to Property market!
if u r talking about investor, they will be happier if the price is lower by then, u may have left out many out there who are in need of their 1st house or upgrade to a bigger house. the younger generation nowaday, do u think they are like 60s 70s youngster who stayed with their parents siblings under one roof, even after married? the flexibility of mortgage encourage new purchasing, give many of us chance to own house.
look further into our always smart gomen, who launched the smartest 1st property scheme, open it to those income below 6k (gosh! with 6k per month, u can only get a property outskirt, wait few years for it to launch progressively in different locations, Ah beng earned RM2.5k, surely he is worried to compete, what made him want to wait for such allocation? ), allocating the housing outskirt of klang valley, pricing it +-RM300k. for me, I see, that indirectly injecting "hope" to Property market in Klang valley, creating transaction and continuing active market. it just help those Developer to promote their projects and encourage more sub sale transactions, i dun see how the scheme ease the Rakyat's concern.
I wont say affirmatively that Property price will not drop, i will choose to say as i always stated, Property pricing will categorically adjusted/worse remain stagnant according to Location, and type of Property. But not as bad as some forumer who are waiting to grab a landed at RM300k as compared with current price of RM500k.
Those who shud be more concern are those high rise in lesser demand area, high end super link semi D bla bla...more are coming up, how many of us out there in need or can afford them? how many out there are waiting to rent ur studio at RM2k, if local fresh grad, mati mati also they will buy one themselvesl; how many foreigners are waiting out there to rent ur condo at RM2k? or ur semi D at RM10K? not forgetting ur neighbours too are looking for tenant, gosh! whole block of studio units! again, dun miss out the other condo across the road? and another one further up the road....
Added on September 8, 2011, 12:56 pmQUOTE(arturo_bandini @ Sep 8 2011, 12:25 PM)
that's only one of the possible situations.
another situation, which most economists are worried of, is this:
uncle bearbearhong has paid off his property, bought for rm180k in the 90s. now the market price is around rm350k-400k. miss yukieliow thinks the property is in a great location, and will appreciate to rm1million in 10 years, at least to rm600k in 2 years, so she took an adjustable-rate loan to buy the property for rm500k! (must be higher than market price, or uncle won't sell la...) her installment is so high that the maximum rent she can get can only cover half the amount. but no worry la, she thinks, in 2 years can sell for at least rm600k.
imagine 10,000+ persons in malaysia like yukieliow, buying properties (investing or speculating?) at higher than market price because they expect prices will continue to go through the roof. what will happen IF prices fall (a lot, a little, or even just stagnates)? what happens if banks increase BLR at this difficult time? this particular situation is what provoked bubble bursts in other markets... in one word: speculators.ps: as a general rule, once a bubble bursts, the price will always go down even lower than before the bubble started.
hahah..do bear in mind, figure i stated are real, not out from my imagination like urs, so dun take my example to do ur unjustifiable computation, only dumbo will buy a landed Propertyfor rental collection and offered such a high price, and ur computation of estimated transaction price is unreal, NO bank will be dumb enuf to give a loan for a over priced property, their valuer cant even justify that.
I understand what u r trying to say.
U should take example for those condo where ppl like to invest for rental yield, let me give u a kisah benar example, a smaller size of pretty old condo in an area nearby KLCC, was priced at RM350k, Mr.A who has already owned a condo for his own stay which still under mortgage, got influence by his fren who told him to grab that unit and rent it out so the rent can offset the loan repayment. He got no 10% deposit, owner agreed to hike up price to RM400k (See this different with ur example, 1 or 2 banks willing to accept slightly higher purchase price if the Property is proved to be well renovated, but NOT as RM100k higher like ur estimation), Mr.A end up got a 100% loan to buy the Property, receiving rental at RM1.8k which just enuf to cover loan repayment and maintaince charges.
6 months later, tenant left the country. Mr.A now is competing with many of his neighbours to look for tenants. So, what come next, if ever BLR shoot up, loan repayment higher, no rental...Mr.A has no spare cash
This post has been edited by bearbearhong: Sep 8 2011, 12:56 PM