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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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kh8668
post Apr 13 2011, 11:57 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 13 2011, 11:51 AM)
wow, you praying hard for "petrol + OPR + Electricity + Food raise at same time" ???  hmm.gif

so you guys actually prefer high inflation just to counter property prices. hhhmmmm... interesting people we have here.
if that is the case, you want property prices to plunge now also can, form a support group and start a riot/protest.
do it everyday and guarantee all property price doesn't just drop, it will CRASH!  thumbup.gif
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Yesterday, it's my first time heard my colleague (foreigner) said Living in Malaysia is damn EXPENSIVE...LOL

This post has been edited by kh8668: Apr 13 2011, 11:58 AM
AVFAN
post Apr 13 2011, 12:23 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 13 2011, 11:57 AM)
Yesterday, it's my first time heard my colleague (foreigner) said Living in Malaysia is damn EXPENSIVE...LOL
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malaysia was a relatively cheap place to live until recent times, despite subsides on essentials.
it is now "expensive" not because petrol or nasi lemak prices are priced high in an absolute sense, but is the low and stagnant income levels.

in the previous page, someone asked how was income and house prices 30-40 yrs ago compared to now.
if not mistaken, back 30 yrs ago, a new terrace house in PJ cost <100K, fresh honors grads get paid 1.5k.
today, same new house in klang is priced 400-500k, salary 2-2.5k, with exceptions, of course.
the same thing happend to cars, healthcare, etc.

how young people buy homes and cars these days? debt and more debt.
until real income levels rise, more young people will leave for better pay jobs overseas.
until real income levels rise, more debt will pile up - and this is not sustainable.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 13 2011, 12:26 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 13 2011, 01:03 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 13 2011, 12:23 PM)
malaysia was a relatively cheap place to live until recent times, despite subsides on essentials.
it is now "expensive" not because petrol or nasi lemak prices are priced high in an absolute sense, but is the low and stagnant income levels.

in the previous page, someone asked how was income and house prices 30-40 yrs ago compared to now.
if not mistaken, back 30 yrs ago, a new terrace house in PJ cost <100K, fresh honors grads get paid 1.5k.
today, same new house in klang is priced 400-500k, salary 2-2.5k, with exceptions, of course.
the same thing happend to cars, healthcare, etc.

how young people buy homes and cars these days? debt and more debt.
until real income levels rise, more young people will leave for better pay jobs overseas.
until real income levels rise, more debt will pile up - and this is not sustainable.
*
agree!
Due to that, Malaysian especially chinese community has been trying to accustome themselves by reducing the size of the family, average young family has 2 kids only and I forsee it will keep reducing to a stage where majority are bachelor.
Singapore did a survey in 2008, among 10 women, 6 decided not marry, out of 4 marry, 3 decided dun want to hv children, remaining one only want 1 child. So the summary is every 10 men & 10 women in S'pore will produce 1 child. (20 vs 1).
I can see the are small portion of the houses being the contribution fr the parents savings, the participation of family members (bro & sisters) to jointly purchase a property is unavoidably.
If not marry, owning a property can be omitted (renting not too bad)
My 2 bakuli cool2.gif
liyonglim
post Apr 13 2011, 01:14 PM

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Hmm... just ate my lunch with a friend of mine working in Public Bank.
He told me at the moment Public Bank (his branch perhaps) withold and stop giving house loan.
Reason is because that particular area residentials' price surge up to fast and high. Only can start giving the loan again with the permission from the superior.
Nowadays even public bank not giving loans cause they are worried on the escalating property price vs ppl income. They are worried on the abillity of the people to serve the loan in future.
I'm wondering now, does this indicate something bad gonna happen soon? hmm.gif

SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 13 2011, 01:23 PM

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QUOTE(liyonglim @ Apr 13 2011, 01:14 PM)
Hmm... just ate my lunch with a friend of mine working in Public Bank.
He told me at the moment Public Bank (his branch perhaps) withold and stop giving house loan.
Reason is because that particular area residentials' price surge up to fast and high. Only can start giving the loan again with the permission from the superior.
Nowadays even public bank not giving loans cause they are worried on the escalating property price vs ppl income. They are worried on the abillity of the people to serve the loan in future.
I'm wondering now, does this indicate something bad gonna happen soon?  hmm.gif
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I worked in PBB b4 also, PBB and Hong Leong style are like that one, very careful and Kiasi, that's why theirs' NPL are so healthy, last year I also told by UOB that they stop giving loan but now buka paip besar-besar...
Very hard to judge fr the movelah
chubbyken
post Apr 13 2011, 01:54 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 13 2011, 01:23 PM)
I worked in PBB b4 also, PBB and Hong Leong style are like that one, very careful and Kiasi, that's why theirs' NPL are so healthy, last year I also told by UOB that they stop giving loan but now buka paip besar-besar...
Very hard to judge fr the movelah
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yes i think now very easy to get loan
hv a friend just bot a new launch at bt jalil
her salary is like 6k, buy a 600k unit
but just need to downpayment 20k
no need instalment before VP
loan repayment 2.8k
she has car loan some more
dont know how come can get such a loan approval
i tot malaysia is very strict and no need to worry about finance credit crisis...

blink.gif
SUSUFO-ET
post Apr 13 2011, 02:28 PM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Apr 13 2011, 01:54 PM)
yes i think now very easy to get loan
hv a friend just bot a new launch at bt jalil
her salary is like 6k, buy a 600k unit
but just need to downpayment 20k
no need instalment before VP
loan repayment 2.8k
she has car loan some more
dont know how come can get such a loan approval
i tot malaysia is very strict and no need to worry about finance credit crisis...

blink.gif
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Our banks are one of the most conservative bank in the world, Only these few yrs they are a bit flexible, but still limit to 90%, unlike US, 100% or more, in 2006, my fren who work in Shenzhen say China really jialat, salary 15K reminbi can get loan approve for 4 condos worth 1.5mil reminbi each, buyer can factor in the future rental into the current earnings, many middle income group has everage 2-3 mil renminbi housing debt. Our situation compared to China is kacang putih yawn.gif

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Apr 13 2011, 02:29 PM
cleo87
post Apr 13 2011, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(the cube @ Apr 13 2011, 11:37 AM)
Why not choose to be working harder instead of hoping, praying hard for econ plunge? not afraid of chain reaction which will ultimately cause everyone a plunge in income too?  rclxub.gif
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dont misunderstand. we are praying for a price adjustment of 15-20% or at least stagnant increase for awhile. some places the price increase by 20k in two months, how hard we work also cannot catch up la. nobody wants an economy crash. that would be bad news all over


Added on April 13, 2011, 2:47 pm
QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Apr 13 2011, 02:28 PM)
Our banks are one of the most conservative bank in the world, Only these few yrs they are a bit flexible, but still limit to 90%, unlike US, 100% or more, in 2006, my fren who work in Shenzhen say China really jialat, salary 15K reminbi can get loan approve for 4 condos worth 1.5mil reminbi each, buyer can factor in the future rental into the current earnings, many middle income group has everage 2-3 mil renminbi housing debt. Our situation compared to China is kacang putih yawn.gif
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wahh...... that aggressive? then our banks are very very careful d

This post has been edited by cleo87: Apr 13 2011, 02:47 PM
kh8668
post Apr 13 2011, 02:57 PM

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QUOTE(cleo87 @ Apr 13 2011, 02:35 PM)
dont misunderstand. we are praying for a price adjustment of 15-20% or at least stagnant increase for awhile. some places the price increase by 20k in two months, how hard we work also cannot catch up la. nobody wants an economy crash. that would be bad news all over


Added on April 13, 2011, 2:47 pm

wahh...... that aggressive? then our banks are very very careful d
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Can see from this chart

user posted image


Approval of loan application is actually gradually dropping from 60+% in previous years to approximately 50% in 2010.

cleo87
post Apr 13 2011, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(kh8668 @ Apr 13 2011, 02:57 PM)

Approval of loan application is actually gradually dropping from 60+% in previous years to approximately 50% in 2010.
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is that why the banks are so aggressive in offering loans? meaning they aggressively pursue but the approval rate is stringent?
prody
post Apr 13 2011, 03:26 PM

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And banks value houses lower then buyers.
WannaGetBuffed
post Apr 13 2011, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(cleo87 @ Apr 13 2011, 03:06 PM)
is that why the banks are so aggressive in offering loans? meaning they aggressively pursue but the approval rate is stringent?
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They have to fight to maintain the market share and profit. How do u think they declare billons of dollar profit every year? From your interest and using them to diversify and make more money.


Bobby C
post Apr 13 2011, 06:44 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 11 2011, 02:43 PM)
recheck yr math.

=(1.067)^40*60=803

correct answer is 6.7% cagr which is about right for very long term.
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Please recheck ur math too.

30k in 40yrs become 800k.

6.7% x 2 = 13.4% increase per yr? hmm.gif

kh8668
post Apr 13 2011, 07:26 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Apr 13 2011, 06:44 PM)
Please recheck ur math too.

30k in 40yrs become 800k.

6.7% x 2 = 13.4% increase per yr?  hmm.gif
*
8.55% per annum ler

http://www.moneychimp.com/calculator/disco..._calculator.htm


AVFAN
post Apr 13 2011, 07:58 PM

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QUOTE(Bobby C @ Apr 13 2011, 06:44 PM)
Please recheck ur math too.

30k in 40yrs become 800k.

6.7% x 2 = 13.4% increase per yr?  hmm.gif
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no ler... said bought subsale at 60k. not 30k.
my math ok wan... tongue.gif
the point is... residential houses is not that great as investment except for certain periods.

QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 11 2011, 01:37 PM)
hahaha.
my aunt is subsale.
original price is rm30k!
i think that was about 30 to 40 years ago lah.

PS: say current value at rm800k
that's rm740k profit over say 40 years.
that still works out to >30% compounded annual return. rclxub.gif
*
This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 13 2011, 08:20 PM
lch78
post Apr 13 2011, 09:09 PM

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QUOTE(chubbyken @ Apr 13 2011, 02:54 PM)
yes i think now very easy to get loan
hv a friend just bot a new launch at bt jalil
her salary is like 6k, buy a 600k unit
but just need to downpayment 20k
no need instalment before VP
loan repayment 2.8k
she has car loan some more
dont know how come can get such a loan approval
i tot malaysia is very strict and no need to worry about finance credit crisis...

blink.gif
*
banks calculate base on 2/3 of a person income. If the total debt repayment is not more than 2/3 of a person income, the mortgage seller can get the loan approve. some more nowadays can pay until 60 - 65 years old. The monetary system is still very loose. Even if it is loose, M'sians are generally very prudent.

So we are still far away from property bubbles like in the US.

Iceman74
post Apr 13 2011, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Apr 11 2011, 01:37 PM)
hahaha.
my aunt is subsale.
original price is rm30k!
i think that was about 30 to 40 years ago lah.

PS: say current value at rm800k
that's rm740k profit over say 40 years.
that still works out to >30% compounded annual return. rclxub.gif
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at that time there are no such 90% loan, the most is 50%-60% if approved. 30k downpayment at that time is like 300k now. Not many ppl can have that much cash reserve.
eastern
post Apr 13 2011, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(the cube @ Apr 13 2011, 11:37 AM)
Why not choose to be working harder instead of hoping, praying hard for econ plunge? not afraid of chain reaction which will ultimately cause everyone a plunge in income too?  rclxub.gif
*
We work hard, unfortunately not paid accordingly or proportionately.

And I sense most of you are paid handsomely in this thread ?

This post has been edited by eastern: Apr 13 2011, 11:13 PM
blasto
post Apr 13 2011, 11:22 PM

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you guys are great !!!
gonna book mark some post of yours... thumbup.gif

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TSVeda
post Apr 13 2011, 11:57 PM

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Very quotable quotes brows.gif

Malaysia house prices to rise 10pc: SP Setia http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...l#ixzz1JQ3KiEZ3

QUOTE
“If you expect property prices to drop, it will not drop,” Liew told reporters in Kuala Lumpur today.

“The costs don’t allow anymore. The costs have gone up so much.”





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