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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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kelvyn
post Jun 21 2011, 08:47 AM

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prices of property will not drop much even if there is a property crash. The most it will go down would be 10 - 15%. With the prices of construction material keeps rising, how can anyone see that happening?
property101
post Jun 21 2011, 09:06 AM

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thanks to QE1 and QE2, inflation is one way up
mmarklee188
post Jun 21 2011, 09:07 AM

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QUOTE(kelvyn @ Jun 21 2011, 08:47 AM)
prices of property will not drop much even if there is a property crash. The most it will go down would be 10 - 15%. With the prices of construction material keeps rising, how can anyone see that happening?
*
Yeah, have been waiting since 2008 for the price to drop at least 10 to 15%, but never happen. In dilemma! Wait or Not wait?


Added on June 21, 2011, 9:10 am
QUOTE(property101 @ Jun 21 2011, 09:06 AM)
thanks to QE1 and QE2, inflation is one way up
*
As long as QE1, QE2 and may be QE3 coming, there will not be deflation. may be stagflation.

This post has been edited by mmarklee188: Jun 21 2011, 09:10 AM
kochin
post Jun 21 2011, 09:24 AM

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mmarklee188,
you have waited and continued to wait.
but the question is, when it drops, would you buy then or wait for it to drop further? do you have a targetted price drop in mind?
eg. you eyed a house for rm300k in 2008. in 2009, it became rm330k. in 2010, it became rm363k. presently it is rm400k. every year it has increased by 10%. if you are still setting rm300k as your target, are you expecting the property price to drop by rm100k (or 25% immediately)? or are you waiting for a long term drop?
do you honestly think price will drop 15%?
alternatively, if you have bought the unit in 2008, even if it drop 10% now, you woould still be buying it cheaper in 08 compared to now.
cheers!

if you are buying for own stay, i would greatly encourage you to buy no matter when. as long as the unit is to your liking and suitability.
if you are buying for investment, that would be a different strategy altogether.

This post has been edited by kochin: Jun 21 2011, 09:26 AM
ericpires
post Jun 21 2011, 09:25 AM

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The property bubble in China is gonna burst alredi and plus Greece is gonna crash soon. Expect property drop price soon
property101
post Jun 21 2011, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(ericpires @ Jun 21 2011, 09:25 AM)
The property bubble in China is gonna burst alredi and plus Greece is gonna crash soon. Expect property drop price soon
*
China government would allow their property bubble to burst? hmm.gif
kochin
post Jun 21 2011, 09:37 AM

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seems like people are getting more bullish about the prediction of a property pricing drop soon.
am sure the camps there are very happy since they have waited for such a long time.
so the big question is when does it starts, and how much is it gonna be?
sampool
post Jun 21 2011, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 21 2011, 10:37 AM)
seems like people are getting more bullish about the prediction of a property pricing drop soon.
am sure the camps there are very happy since they have waited for such a long time.
so the big question is when does it starts, and how much is it gonna be?
*
the answer is worth thousand billion dollar..
cybermaster98
post Jun 21 2011, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(ericpires @ Jun 21 2011, 09:25 AM)
The property bubble in China is gonna burst alredi and plus Greece is gonna crash soon. Expect property drop price soon
*
The drop will only happen in new areas or areas facing glut. In the Klang Valley, developed and mature areas e.g TTDI, Damansara Heights, Damansara Utama, Bandar Utama, Bangsar, Bukit Tunku, etc will not drop. Areas like Mont Kiara and KLCC will be the first to be hit in case of a bubble burst due to the glut in high rise developments there. New property launches will also be hit badly if that happens. Thats why i always recommend to stick to subsale rather than new developments at their inflated prices.

This post has been edited by cybermaster98: Jun 21 2011, 11:13 AM
lch78
post Jun 21 2011, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 21 2011, 10:37 AM)
seems like people are getting more bullish about the prediction of a property pricing drop soon.
am sure the camps there are very happy since they have waited for such a long time.
so the big question is when does it starts, and how much is it gonna be?
*
I thought it is starting already. biggrin.gif

A correction in property price is anticipated especially so for over shoot areas, but not a big drop like the US sub-prime crisis. If the later happens, it will bring down the whole economy along.


Iceman74
post Jun 21 2011, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(kelvyn @ Jun 21 2011, 08:47 AM)
prices of property will not drop much even if there is a property crash. The most it will go down would be 10 - 15%. With the prices of construction material keeps rising, how can anyone see that happening?
*
what cause these construction material rising, can also cause it reduce


in investment world, nothing is impossible
remember Iraq war, every1 said share market going down but up they they go at the very same day started
or KLSE drop to lowest at 261.33 on 1 September, 1998

This post has been edited by Iceman74: Jun 21 2011, 11:25 AM
kochin
post Jun 21 2011, 11:19 AM

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personally think that MK will be the worst hit.
KLCC will have demand from both foreign and local alike. in fact i think a lot of ppl already standby their elephant guns perhaps?
lch78
post Jun 21 2011, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(ericpires @ Jun 21 2011, 10:25 AM)
The property bubble in China is gonna burst alredi and plus Greece is gonna crash soon. Expect property drop price soon
*
The latest economic data from China shows that it is heading towards a soft landing. A crash is not expected of China property prices.

Greece is already gone case. Whether or not it will cause euro to drop is a matter of time. But this is Europe's problem. smile.gif


Added on June 21, 2011, 11:21 am
QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 21 2011, 12:19 PM)
personally think that MK will be the worst hit.
KLCC will have demand from both foreign and local alike. in fact i think a lot of ppl already standby their elephant guns perhaps?
*
I am standing by for MK to hit RM400psf. I wish. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by lch78: Jun 21 2011, 11:21 AM
prody
post Jun 21 2011, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ Jun 21 2011, 11:13 AM)
I thought it is starting already.  biggrin.gif

A correction in property price is anticipated especially so for over shoot areas, but not a big drop like the US sub-prime crisis. If the later happens, it will bring down the whole economy along.
*
Yeah latest data showed a (small) drop in prices.
cybermaster98
post Jun 21 2011, 11:52 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 21 2011, 11:19 AM)
personally think that MK will be the worst hit.
KLCC will have demand from both foreign and local alike. in fact i think a lot of ppl already standby their elephant guns perhaps?
*
Yes i agree that Mont Kiara will be worst hit. The number of condos there is shocking. Plus more than half of the units are empty. Even property valuators for banks like CIMB and Maybank are giving very conservative pricing for MK condos as they are anticipating a drop. The worst hit in MK would be the newer launches with their exorbidant pricing.
lch78
post Jun 21 2011, 12:55 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Jun 21 2011, 10:24 AM)
mmarklee188,
you have waited and continued to wait.
but the question is, when it drops, would you buy then or wait for it to drop further? do you have a targetted price drop in mind?
eg. you eyed a house for rm300k in 2008. in 2009, it became rm330k. in 2010, it became rm363k. presently it is rm400k. every year it has increased by 10%. if you are still setting rm300k as your target, are you expecting the property price to drop by rm100k (or 25% immediately)? or are you waiting for a long term drop?
do you honestly think price will drop 15%?
alternatively, if you have bought the unit in 2008, even if it drop 10% now, you woould still be buying it cheaper in 08 compared to now.
cheers!

if you are buying for own stay, i would greatly encourage you to buy no matter when. as long as the unit is to your liking and suitability.
if you are buying for investment, that would be a different strategy altogether.
*
+1

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This post has been edited by lch78: Jun 21 2011, 01:08 PM
kevyeoh
post Jun 21 2011, 01:42 PM

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if it's for own stay...i suggest just buy the place you love and like the most... don't wait.... if you wait...you might end up without a house and continue to wait until old age !
cherroy
post Jun 21 2011, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(lch78 @ Jun 21 2011, 11:19 AM)
The latest economic data from China shows that it is heading towards a soft landing. A crash is not expected of China property prices.

Greece is already gone case. Whether or not it will cause euro to drop is a matter of time. But this is Europe's problem.  smile.gif


Added on June 21, 2011, 11:21 am

I am standing by for MK to hit RM400psf. I wish.  laugh.gif
*
Huh?
Soft landing, with inflation, or official CPI at 5.5% which is one of the highest in the past.... unsure.gif
lch78
post Jun 21 2011, 02:18 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 21 2011, 03:07 PM)
Huh?
Soft landing, with inflation, or official CPI at 5.5% which is one of the highest in the past....  unsure.gif
*
That is what the analysts at CNBC SquawkBox said last week based on the latest released financial data. biggrin.gif

I guess the vote is still 50-50 out there on China economic future...

What is your take on this? notworthy.gif

On another note, even if China face a hard landing, China can still utilize part of their foreign reserves (USD3,000,000,000,000) to cover the big hole in their banking sector (like they did before). icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by lch78: Jun 21 2011, 02:33 PM
BEANCOUNTER
post Jun 21 2011, 02:33 PM

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i believe the new condo launches in Puchong+BJ+OKR in the last 2-3 years are also in the shocking numbers.

The problem is just moving from MK to other areas...

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