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Financial Are property prices going to drop? V2, The heated debate continues

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dumeort
post Jun 19 2011, 12:49 PM

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QUOTE(Neo229 @ Jun 19 2011, 05:19 AM)
I think...as long as people are not unemployed, with increased jobs creation like impending big projects / developments backed by foreign investors. Days after days, even if minor correction would happen, people still need to eat, sleep and grow. i think what is not affordable today will be affordable tomorrow.
*
So u r on which site ? smile.gif

Imho, ( i study until spm only) everyone also dont want bubble but everyone also want to buy few properties.
cherroy
post Jun 19 2011, 09:10 PM

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QUOTE(dumeort @ Jun 19 2011, 12:49 PM)
So u r on which site ? smile.gif

Imho, ( i study until spm only) everyone also dont want bubble but everyone also want to buy few properties.
*
Personally I don't quite agree on this.
"Everyone also want to buy few properties" statemet.

I lived in rented house for >20 years, none of family member complaint not owning a house, as long as live with financial ok condition.
No point stressing one financially to max until cannnot breath, just to "own" a house.
Need a place for shelter, and a place called home.
And a place call home doesn't mean must own the house, it is intangible.

I see rent has its own advantage.
With current properties condition, price sky-rocketing while rental rate is not.
There are reasons for choosing to rent.

Somemore, you don't scare to buy the wrong properties, ended up with half abandoned project, don't like the house afterwards etc risk.
Can simply just move out.
Has chance to live in several condition/area around if wish. biggrin.gif
sampool
post Jun 19 2011, 09:50 PM

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recently i can see 1 developer offer guarantee rental return (GRR)... this is very risky strategy to owner, but good for their sales, it usually the last strategy to attract buyer... i personally see 3 projects with GRR are abandon previously, and usually follow by property prices drop in the market... on another words... the prophecy is near.

maybe someone will said this time is different...

This post has been edited by sampool: Jun 19 2011, 09:56 PM
chisel55
post Jun 20 2011, 01:00 AM

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Bank lending rates affects property prices. Low rates stimulate demand. Those with money prefer to invest in properties as opposed to putting their money in FD. Low interest rates also mean its cheaper to borrow. This starts the demand cycle pushing prices up beginning of a upward spiral.
If it happens the other way a downward spiral will be initiated. but nobody want a downward spiral to start except for those who are cash rich and those in real need for properties.
Major developers and valuers help in raising prices of proerties. Higher property prices paradoxically increases demand and gives rise to speculation.
Real price increases are caused by increases in building material, labour and land costs. This is also the main reason for recent price increases.
Whether there are real demand or speculation is best determined by rentals. Poor rentals with respect to their values indicates an oversupply situation.
Location of the property also play a major role in wild fluctuations of prices.
When the bubble burst, and we are on this trend now, those highly speculative areas will suffer the biggest drop in prices.
An area that is highly speculative can be indicated by the number of units for resale when the units have just been completed.


Added on June 20, 2011, 1:09 am
QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 19 2011, 09:10 PM)
Personally I don't quite agree on this.
"Everyone also want to buy few properties" statemet.

I lived in rented house for >20 years, none of family member complaint not owning a house, as long as live with financial ok condition.
No point stressing one financially to max until cannnot breath, just to "own" a house.
Need a place for shelter, and a place called home.
And a place call home doesn't mean must own the house, it is intangible. 

I see rent has its own advantage.
With current properties condition, price sky-rocketing while rental rate is not.
There are reasons for choosing to rent.

Somemore, you don't scare to buy the wrong properties, ended up with half abandoned project, don't like the house afterwards etc risk.
Can simply just move out.
Has chance to live in several condition/area around if wish. biggrin.gif
*
I have a friend who doesn't like to buy properties and would rather rent. This is ok if he has got other investments that gives a better return than properties. One property that cost rm300k 7 years ago now costs rm900k. So if you can invest in a business that gives you better returns then rent. Also don't forget if you had paid rent for 7 years you would have paid rm126k!! You could have invested in a house already!!

This post has been edited by chisel55: Jun 20 2011, 01:09 AM
mmarklee188
post Jun 20 2011, 08:57 AM

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QUOTE(chisel55 @ Jun 20 2011, 01:00 AM)
Bank lending rates affects property prices. Low rates stimulate demand. Those with money prefer to invest in properties as opposed to putting their money in FD. Low interest rates also mean its cheaper to borrow. This starts the demand cycle pushing prices up beginning of a upward spiral.
If it happens the other way a downward spiral will be initiated. but nobody want a downward spiral to start except for those who are cash rich and those in real need for properties.
Major developers and valuers help in raising prices of proerties. Higher property prices paradoxically increases demand and gives rise to speculation.
Real price increases are caused by increases in building material, labour and land costs. This is also the main reason for recent price increases.
Whether there are real demand or speculation is best determined by rentals. Poor rentals with respect to their values indicates an oversupply situation.
Location of the property also play a major role in wild fluctuations of prices.
When the bubble burst, and we are on this trend now, those highly speculative areas will suffer the biggest drop in prices.
An area that is highly speculative can be indicated by the number of units for resale when the units have just been completed.


Added on June 20, 2011, 1:09 am
I have a friend who doesn't like to buy properties and would rather rent.  This is ok if he has got other investments that gives a better return than properties. One property that cost rm300k 7 years ago now costs rm900k. So if you can invest in a business that gives you better returns then rent. Also don't forget if you had paid rent for 7 years you would have paid rm126k!! You could have invested in a house already!!
*
You are right! Why pay rental if you can use the money to pay for the instalment? Now is OK, but will regret over the years as income will never catch up with hhyper-inflation. Those missed the boat will always ratinalise and siok sendiri. Let them be. Everything in life there is a risk, just like buying property, marriage or many other things. Take your chances and don't procrastinate.
sampool
post Jun 20 2011, 09:39 AM

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<7 years you would have paid rm126k>
Really? RM1500 per month for rental... this must be richman loh... so wat the worry....

This post has been edited by sampool: Jun 20 2011, 09:40 AM
CKHong
post Jun 20 2011, 09:49 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 20 2011, 09:39 AM)
<7 years you would have paid rm126k>
Really? RM1500 per month for rental... this must be richman loh... so wat the worry....
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i dun think moderator's rental is 1.5k loh.. mostly will be RM400~600 per month.. alot of place can get that kind of rental, eg : ipoh, melaka, and other small town ~
Dannyl
post Jun 20 2011, 09:52 AM

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I see lelong notices on lamp posts. If the market is so good, why would anyone have his property taken back by the bank for lelong? If cannot afford to pay off the instalment, can just sell the house, yes? Am I missing something?
Iceman74
post Jun 20 2011, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(Dannyl @ Jun 20 2011, 09:52 AM)
I see lelong notices on lamp posts.  If the market is so good, why would anyone have his property taken back by the bank for lelong?  If cannot afford to pay off the instalment, can just sell the house, yes?  Am I missing something?
*
the connection to real buyers are no longer there anymore cos they can't really get the loan as most of the valuers value much lower & the top up is too much for 1st time buyer to bear...only left with speculators
sampool
post Jun 20 2011, 10:24 AM

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if u cannot print the $$ better stay away... except ur $$ is some way printed from the printer...
chisel55
post Jun 20 2011, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Jun 20 2011, 09:49 AM)
i dun think moderator's rental is 1.5k loh.. mostly will be RM400~600 per month.. alot of place can get that kind of rental, eg : ipoh, melaka, and other small town ~
*
u r right. I am assuming he is renting in KL with family. for RM400 to 600 you get a room in KL not a house. Unless its in a place where your car windscreen gets broken every fortnight and your shoes go missing every month. And you seriously won't want to rent there!!


Added on June 20, 2011, 11:05 am
QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 19 2011, 09:50 PM)
recently i can see 1 developer offer guarantee rental return (GRR)... this is very risky strategy to owner, but good for their sales, it usually the last strategy to attract buyer... i personally see 3 projects with GRR are abandon previously, and usually follow by property prices drop in the market... on another words... the prophecy is near.

maybe someone will said this time is different...
*
Good observation. This is the repeat of 1997. Guaranteed returns? Better read the fine print. Many Singaporean Investors got caught and can't do anything about it. Mostly in Malacca and Johor. The property management ppl? No where to be seen.

This post has been edited by chisel55: Jun 20 2011, 11:05 AM
mIssfROGY
post Jun 20 2011, 01:38 PM

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QUOTE(chisel55 @ Jun 20 2011, 01:00 AM)
I have a friend who doesn't like to buy properties and would rather rent.  This is ok if he has got other investments that gives a better return than properties. One property that cost rm300k 7 years ago now costs rm900k. So if you can invest in a business that gives you better returns then rent. Also don't forget if you had paid rent for 7 years you would have paid rm126k!! You could have invested in a house already!!
LOL....wat about interest occurred as well as other costs? By the end of the tenure, usually you would have paid 600k for a 300k house de. What about the other costs?
It depends ge lar biggrin.gif
CKHong
post Jun 20 2011, 01:49 PM

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QUOTE(mIssfROGY @ Jun 20 2011, 01:38 PM)
LOL....wat about interest occurred as well as other costs? By the end of the tenure, usually you would have paid 600k for a 300k house de. What about the other costs?
It depends ge lar biggrin.gif
*
agreed biggrin.gif if u pay for the rental which differ RM200~300 compare to u get a properties, then for sure it is better u get a properties..
if let say u get a properties which cost RM1500 per month[loan repayment] vs u rent whole house [RM500++] it is ok if u rent it rather than buy smile.gif
let say RM350,000 > BLR - 2.4 = 4.2 = Just the interest charged by bank = 14700 /12 = each month u have to pay 1225 just for the interest.
If u can choose.. why pay become bank slave and pay that much interest to bank where u can rent a house at 500++ and the rest u can keep it in the bank or play some unit trust ?
Let say u have financial problem , at least u won't have to scratch ur head too much.. at most u just don't do investment on unit trust.. 500++ can rent the house already.
prody
post Jun 20 2011, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(CKHong @ Jun 20 2011, 01:49 PM)
agreed  biggrin.gif  if u pay for the rental which differ RM200~300 compare to u get a properties, then for sure it is better u get a properties..
if let say u get a properties which cost RM1500 per month[loan repayment] vs u rent whole house [RM500++] it is ok if u rent it rather than buy smile.gif
let say RM350,000 >  BLR - 2.4 = 4.2 = Just the interest charged by bank = 14700 /12 = each month u have to pay 1225 just for the interest.
If u can choose.. why pay become bank slave and pay that much interest to bank where u can rent a house at 500++ and the rest u can keep it in the bank or play some unit trust ?
Let say u have financial problem , at least u won't have to scratch ur head too much.. at most u just don't do investment on unit trust.. 500++ can rent the house already.
*
Renting is better if you think property prices will drop in the near future.
cherroy
post Jun 20 2011, 03:03 PM

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QUOTE(chisel55 @ Jun 20 2011, 01:00 AM)
I have a friend who doesn't like to buy properties and would rather rent.  This is ok if he has got other investments that gives a better return than properties. One property that cost rm300k 7 years ago now costs rm900k. So if you can invest in a business that gives you better returns then rent. Also don't forget if you had paid rent for 7 years you would have paid rm126k!! You could have invested in a house already!!
*
It is not fair to compare like this.

First when you rent, you never know the properties will rise from 300k to 900k.
There are risk all along.

Now it is end result you see, only you know rise from 300k to 900k.
Just like 4D, today number is 1234, then you said to yourself, if I bought 1234, then I won a couple to ten thousand already.
Same analogy.

The property can be ended a abandoned project.
The property can be completed but just for growing grass. etc...

By renting, you do not take those risk.
You don't have other commitment, the commitment is monthly rental only.

We cannot say renting is sure loss strategy.
Yes, it is good to own a property the rise in value while still own stay.

But risk wise adopting in the first place is difference.

I always reiterated, cashflow is the most important aspect, and first priority in financial management.
You may have 1 million of worth of property, but no RM10 cash in your pocket, still ended starving because you have no cash to buy foods. biggrin.gif

Don't tell me when you bought 300k, you know it will rise to 900k.

Don't get me wrong, getting or owning a house is good, I am not saying renting is better. But still it depends on individual condition and rent is always an alternative option, not necessary must buy.


sampool
post Jun 20 2011, 03:15 PM

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i think compare 4D and prop is abit wrong leh... 4D u only need maybe RM10 to bet, but prop need few hundred K..

900k prop is on paper only.. as long as u hvn't sell it it still remind at 300k.. just shock sendiri leh.....

This post has been edited by sampool: Jun 20 2011, 03:28 PM
cherroy
post Jun 20 2011, 03:39 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 20 2011, 03:15 PM)
i think compare 4D and prop is abit wrong leh... 4D u only need maybe RM10 to bet, but prop need few hundred K..

900k prop is on paper only.. as long as u hvn't sell it it still remind at 300k.. just shock sendiri leh.....
*
Yes, you are right.
Just to highlight people tend to say or look back, 300k --> 900k, say, I missed that, look like very easy.
But on the other hand, can also bought 300k and fall into financially difficulty afterwards.

Nobody know the future.
It is not like every property rise in value (net to net)
Some property may left abandon for years as well.
It is not the like it never happened before.



AVFAN
post Jun 20 2011, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Jun 20 2011, 03:03 PM)
The property can be ended a abandoned project.
The property can be completed but just for growing grass. etc...
By renting, you do not take those risk.
You don't have other commitment, the commitment is monthly rental only.
We cannot say renting is sure loss strategy.
Yes, it is good to own a property the rise in value while still own stay.

agree. renting means no completion risk, no int rates risk, more cash to spend or invest elsewhere (e.g. gold gave gave about 60% in RM in the last 3 years). dun like the the place or landlord, just move!

leveraging is the key to high % gain but it comes with high risk. there is no such inv as high gain low risk, is there? maybe for some highly connected and privileged ones...

it's the hefty price hikes in the last 2 yrs that got people into either fear or greed mode to bbb - just about anything new.
everybody now talking either politics or property prices at the wet market, at the kopishops, at fren's house.
during the normal years, not many people give a hoot about flipping props.
i have one that gave me 20% appr over 10 years and another 100% in 5 yrs.
ok, some are simply not so smart or lucky as some others who are sure to make money with props.
that's why my view has always been for own stay, can buy anytime if you have planned for it.
overborrow to flip or expecting high rental to cover... just have a plan what to do if and when the shix hits the fan.

during good times, any inv can make good money. in the early nineties, some people started to believe they were gods since everything they touched turned to gold. came 1998, many lost everything. don't underestimate what the market can do despite all that you think you can control. if the market can reward handsomely, it can also punish severely. if now in 20s and 30s, have not seen the worst of times, do be careful. one wrong move can set you back by 10 yrs.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jun 20 2011, 04:45 PM
groggy
post Jun 20 2011, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jun 20 2011, 03:15 PM)
i think compare 4D and prop is abit wrong leh... 4D u only need maybe RM10 to bet, but prop need few hundred K..

900k prop is on paper only.. as long as u hvn't sell it it still remind at 300k.. just shock sendiri leh.....
*
By your reasoning, Bill Gates might not be that rich cos he has not sold any of his shares? I think investments value should be marked to market, not necessarily sold to recognise the gain. Take a conservative approach, value at 800k for example. Definitely not remain at 300k lah, so drastic.
sampool
post Jun 20 2011, 10:07 PM

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QUOTE(groggy @ Jun 20 2011, 10:31 PM)
By your reasoning, Bill Gates might not be that rich cos he has not sold any of his shares? I think investments value should be marked to market, not necessarily sold to recognise the gain. Take a conservative approach, value at 800k for example. Definitely not remain at 300k lah, so drastic.
*
yes... bill gates is rich on paper... but with his bonus/salary/dividend/allowance from ms already enuf for his few generations to survive...

I dun think he know exactly how much $$ he own... maybe he get to know from media and nasdaq..

ppl start to calculative how much their asset value is usually follow the crash which is around the corner...


my 2 cents...

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