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 Stock Market V40, Do you believe in October Myth?

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zenquix
post Sep 21 2009, 12:47 AM

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Not sure if this was shared

Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html

QUOTE
Maxis Bhd to offer 2.25b IPO shares
By Goh Thean Eu
Published: 2009/09/19


The listing is set to be Malaysia's biggest since 1995, estimated at US$2 billion (RM7 billion)

Maxis Communications Bhd, the country's dominant mobile operator, plans to list its Malaysian business, Maxis Bhd (Maxis Malaysia), in the year's most anticipated initial public offering (IPO).

The listing is set to be the country's biggest since 1995, estimated at US$2 billion (RM7 billion), according to Reuters.

Maxis Malaysia will not be issuing new shares, but will offer 2.25 billion shares, representing 30 per cent of its existing share capital.

Some 92 per cent, or 207.5 billion shares, will be offered to institutional investors, and the rest to retail investors.
In a prospectus exposure on the Securities Commission's website yesterday, Maxis Malaysia said the listing will give the company the financial flexibility to pursue growth opportunities and enhance its profile, among other things.

"The exercise could help its main shareholders (Maxis) to fund the group's Indian investments," an analyst from a local research house said.

Upon completion of the IPO, Maxis' stake in Maxis Malaysia will be reduced to 70 per cent.

Tycoon T. Ananda Krishnan currently controls 75 per cent of Maxis, while Saudi Telecom Co owns the balance.

Maxis Malaysia, which registered RM1.14 billion net profit in the first half of this year, plans to return 75 per cent of its 2010 net profit as dividend.

"Until the IPO price is out, I can't tell whether the IPO is attractive or not. Without the IPO price, we can't calculate the yield based on dividend policy alone," another analyst said when contacted.

The offer price will be determined after a bookbuilding exercise. CIMB, Credit Suisse and Goldman Sachs are joint bookrunners for the IPO.

Maxis Malaysia, according to the draft prospectus, saw net profit rise 21.23 per cent to RM2.4 billion last year. In the first half of this year, its net profit declined 9.4 per cent.

Revenue rose 9.8 per cent to RM8.45 billion last year. In the first half of 2009, it was up 4.3 per cent to RM4.24 billion.

In the six months to June 2009, it had 11.42 million subscribers comprising 8.52 million prepaid, 2.73 million post-paid and 171,200 wireless broadband users.

The IPO is expected to help boost the local stock market as it would add to the number of large companies and help in efforts to woo more foreign shareholders.

Analysts and investors have been closely monitoring Maxis developments after Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, in a media briefing during a working visit to Saudi Arabia some two months back, suggested that it be relisted to help attract investors to Bursa Malaysia.

Maxis was valued at some RM40 billion before it was taken private in 2007 by Ananda.
My thoughts
1) Listing only covers Malaysia Maxis. What is the potential growth like? Pure dividend play?
2) Maxis Communications Berhad will use both proceeds from the relist as well as dividends to finance overseas ventures. @75% dividend return, would this in turn cap the potential growth of the Malaysian business?
3) Reduction in 2009 financials and reduction in market share hints on better performance by the competitors in the Malaysian Market?
4) @ 2.25 bil shares (only 8% retail), and estimated IPO listing of RM7bil, this would mean that the potential IPO price will be ~RM3.11 per share.
5) Assuming that FY2009 & FY2010 gross profit is zero growth @ RM2.4 bil(considering 2009 is already 9.4%) that would mean a dividend pool of RM540mil for this 2.25 bil shares. Thus each share may earn ~24 sen per share
6) This would put it to a potential dividend yield @ est IPO price of 7.7%.

This post has been edited by zenquix: Sep 21 2009, 01:44 AM
mopster
post Sep 21 2009, 03:39 AM

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hi zenquix , FYI i have quoted your post in the Maxis thread for reference and further discussion there.. tyvm smile.gif
teehk_tee
post Sep 21 2009, 04:43 AM

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here's what i think personally.

i think the only reason Maxis would want to re-IPO is for a bigger slice of the cake and $$ for AK. which naturally means Maxis making it into the top 30, and for the stock to be fried up according to the CI alongside the banking boys.

tried working out the fair value but my brain's kaput. i still think DiGi is tops in cash with this listing. only that Maxis is the local boys' favourite i guess.

i still don't understand what's the fuss about this IPO. the sentiment is as if after Maxis lists, market will go back to pre-1997. sounds kinda crazy but that's the jibes i'm getting.

just my humble worthless opinions laugh.gif
simplesmile
post Sep 21 2009, 07:53 AM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Sep 21 2009, 04:43 AM)
here's what i think personally.

i think the only reason Maxis would want to re-IPO is for a bigger slice of the cake and $$ for AK. which naturally means Maxis making it into the top 30, and for the stock to be fried up according to the CI alongside the banking boys.

tried working out the fair value but my brain's kaput. i still think DiGi is tops in cash with this listing. only that Maxis is the local boys' favourite i guess.

i still don't understand what's the fuss about this IPO. the sentiment is as if after Maxis lists, market will go back to pre-1997. sounds kinda crazy but that's the jibes i'm getting.

just my humble worthless opinions laugh.gif
*
The relisting is to generate financing for Ananda's overseas project. I think it's either India or Bangla telco.
mazda626
post Sep 21 2009, 11:23 AM

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Maxis relisting will be a cause factors for others telco players counters down due to comparison of benefits/rewards and potential. They are Axiata, TM, Digi etc etc...but as a natural nature of KLSE, short term might be mix between supply & demand while it promosing to long term investors as BAT, Panamy.

Get ready the bullets. nod.gif
epalbee3
post Sep 21 2009, 12:02 PM

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QUOTE(zenquix @ Sep 21 2009, 12:47 AM)
Not sure if this was shared

Source: http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIM...icle/index_html
My thoughts
1) Listing only covers Malaysia Maxis. What is the potential growth like? Pure dividend play?
2) Maxis Communications Berhad will use both proceeds from the relist as well as dividends to finance overseas ventures. @75% dividend return, would this in turn cap the potential growth of the Malaysian business?
3) Reduction in 2009 financials and reduction in market share hints on better performance by the competitors in the Malaysian Market?
4) @ 2.25 bil shares (only 8% retail), and estimated IPO listing of RM7bil, this would mean that the potential IPO price will be ~RM3.11 per share.
5) Assuming that FY2009 & FY2010 gross profit is zero growth @ RM2.4 bil(considering 2009 is already 9.4%) that would mean a dividend pool of RM540mil for this 2.25 bil shares. Thus each share may earn ~24 sen per share
6) This would put it to a potential dividend yield @ est IPO price of 7.7%.
*
I think should be Rm1.50 per IPO.
2.25 bil (30% for public) and the rest for internal acquisition.
David_Brent
post Sep 21 2009, 01:59 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 18 2009, 04:45 PM)
David, some news on Oilcrap

 
3697    OILCORP    OILCORP BHD 
Default in Payment under Practice Note 1/2001 

Oilcorp Berhad (OILCORP or the Company)
-  Default in Payment under Practice Note 1/2001 of the Listing Requirements of Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad.


The Company wishes to announce that the Company has failed to meet its interest payment of RM1,643,806.85 due and payable on 17 September 2009 in respect of the Facility Agreement dated 9 September 2005 between EON Bank Berhad, CAPONE Berhad and OILCORP (Facility Agreement).

they have money issue huh. hmm.gif
*
WAH!

I go away for a few days' holiday and look what happen flex.gif
Oilcrap totally FUBAR!! shakehead.gif
teehk_tee
post Sep 21 2009, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(simplesmile @ Sep 21 2009, 07:53 AM)
The relisting is to generate financing for Ananda's overseas project. I think it's either India or Bangla telco.
*
yeah for india telco.

QUOTE(David_Brent @ Sep 21 2009, 01:59 PM)
WAH!

I go away for a few days' holiday and look what happen flex.gif
Oilcrap totally FUBAR!! shakehead.gif
*
it'll reach your breakeven someday! flex.gif holding powarhhh
David_Brent
post Sep 21 2009, 09:42 PM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Sep 21 2009, 06:43 PM)
it'll reach your breakeven someday!  flex.gif holding powarhhh
*
Thanks mate! nod.gif
That makes me feel so much better!
Luckily it is only a tiny fraction of my ENORMOUS portfolio! laugh.gif
icon_rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by David_Brent: Sep 21 2009, 09:42 PM
panasonic88
post Sep 21 2009, 10:26 PM

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whoa today regional market aint performaing well even tho dow closed in green on friday.

now DJIA in red, maybe we are spared tongue.gif

or maybe we have double jeopardy on wednesday sweat.gif
David_Brent
post Sep 21 2009, 10:33 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 21 2009, 10:26 PM)
whoa today regional market aint performaing well even tho dow closed in green on friday.

now DJIA in red, maybe we are spared tongue.gif

or maybe we have double jeopardy on wednesday sweat.gif
*
Wednesday = Shopping Day! icon_idea.gif
protonw
post Sep 21 2009, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 21 2009, 10:26 PM)
whoa today regional market aint performaing well even tho dow closed in green on friday.

now DJIA in red, maybe we are spared tongue.gif

or maybe we have double jeopardy on wednesday sweat.gif
*
Again Wednesday is a sale day for bargain hunting. drool.gif


coffeelover1975
post Sep 21 2009, 11:05 PM

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still got tomorrow to tell us.
simplesmile
post Sep 21 2009, 11:13 PM

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QUOTE(panasonic88 @ Sep 21 2009, 10:26 PM)
whoa today regional market aint performaing well even tho dow closed in green on friday.

now DJIA in red, maybe we are spared tongue.gif

or maybe we have double jeopardy on wednesday sweat.gif
*
KLCI will be green, but most of the individual counters will be red.
coffeelover1975
post Sep 21 2009, 11:43 PM

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From Wednesday onwards, stocks will take-turns to be gorenged, so don't forget to sail-off before the tide subsides! icon_idea.gif
zamans98
post Sep 22 2009, 12:33 AM

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QUOTE(David_Brent @ Sep 21 2009, 01:59 PM)
WAH!

I go away for a few days' holiday and look what happen flex.gif
Oilcrap totally FUBAR!! shakehead.gif
*
now, OILCORP = OILCRAP? FUBAR/FUMTU or SNAFU..


danmooncake
post Sep 22 2009, 01:00 AM

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Oil is down 3.5% tonight ($69), DTO went up 7.5%

If Oil continues down, CPO sure kena by Wednesday.
Watch for down pressure for OILCORP and KNM. tongue.gif
teehk_tee
post Sep 22 2009, 01:30 AM

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Oil might be speculated up on supply fears after one of the oil bosses warn of underinvestment in oil supplies today.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8266200.stm

i'd say we've decoupled from the July oil fluctuations that affected local energy stocks. in august, it was.. rise no feel, fall no feel. local market probably has immuned against short term fluctuations in prices.

yeah probably strong profit taking activities after the holiday, all the way till maybe Friday. then another new wave. fooooh.

go go go KNM! icon_idea.gif icon_idea.gif icon_idea.gif tongue.gif

This post has been edited by teehk_tee: Sep 22 2009, 01:34 AM
danmooncake
post Sep 22 2009, 01:54 AM

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QUOTE(teehk_tee @ Sep 22 2009, 01:30 AM)
Oil might be speculated up on supply fears after one of the oil bosses warn of underinvestment in oil supplies today.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/8266200.stm

i'd say we've decoupled from the July oil fluctuations that affected local energy stocks. in august, it was.. rise no feel, fall no feel. local market probably has immuned against short term fluctuations in prices.

yeah probably strong profit taking activities after the holiday, all the way till maybe Friday. then another new wave. fooooh.

go go go KNM! icon_idea.gif icon_idea.gif icon_idea.gif tongue.gif
*
Total oil CEO uttered is BS. The world got plenty of oil supply. He just wants to fatten his pay cheque.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Sep 22 2009, 01:54 AM
teehk_tee
post Sep 22 2009, 02:18 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Sep 22 2009, 01:54 AM)
Total oil CEO uttered is BS. The world got plenty of oil supply. He just wants to fatten his pay cheque.
*
tongue.gif good point.

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