secretsquirrel,

So, tell me, what USEFUL investment information that he had shared??

My POINT which is VERY SIMPLE. Most normal human beings are not PROFESSIONAL stock traders. So, they NEED an investment strategy that works aka they can sleep for 5 years and it will be okay. Anything less than that, it will require TOO MUCH monitoring and it will not work for normal people.

Dreamer

As I always say unit trusts is like "heads you lose, tails i win" kind of scenario. Even if you're losing or winning the fund managers gets a share of your money from the management fees with NO liabilities.

The money comes from you if you make profit, they also make a profit out of the fees. If you lost 15% they will also make a profit
from the fees.
Either way, the unit trust holders hold all the risk, not the fund managers.

Yup, exactly.
Recent financial crisis exposed this issue as well, as some fund managers do get bonus over the performance, it just means encourage excessive risk taking.

There are 2 scenario

a) If you (fund managers) take money from client, while you view market is going to go down, you opt to stay with cash, not investing. If turnout you are right, you earn nothing. Your clients won't appreciated much even you don't lose money while counterpart or generally market are losing.
But if you are wrong, you will be screwed big time, potential losing your job as you did a lousy job.

b) If you fully invested and taking excessive risk and bet on the upside, if turn out you are right, you get big fat bonus.
If wrong, then lose the client's money only, you lose nothing. While just inform the clients, your fund is performing as par with the generally market (lose 30% or 50%).

So which one you choose?

IMHO, fund is just an instrument and investor should be the master. There is no one-size-fit-all instrument.

If you have spare time and like investment, go ahead, spend time on market.

If you do not have spare time and/or dislike investment, you better to have a maintenanceless investment strategy. Having no investment will not be an option as your spare money will be 'idle'.

Unfortunately, no money manager will promise you that.

Hi SS,

I'm so glad that there is one can understand my meaning. Thank you very much. Tell me your thoughts.

cheers,

crawler

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Added on May 16, 2009, 8:27 amDreamer,

You mean you believe in free lunch-Sleep tight for 5 yrs and suddenly your wealth will increase? There is high possibility that you get at least 50% lost if you don't put effort to manage your money, rather than increase.

I'm in peace without anymore fights as i do in my everyday's life, but to share as much as i could = unless you equip yourself, full armor, otherwise you should put money in bank FD, real estate rather than in the FM's hands.

rockcrawler

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 16 2009, 08:34 AM

rockcrawler,

<<I can tell the highly possibility that the result will be you lost 50% at least if you don't put effort to manage your money, rather than increase by 5x.>>

My goal is NEITHER to get 5 X Return or lost 50%. My goal is to get market return by using INDEX FUND. So, I am NOT putting my money into fund manager's hand except for a small portion in VWELX.

So, come back to us in 5 or 10 years that you can BEAT market return consistently after all the trading fees. Isn't it quoted by you that 90% of the fund manager cannot achieve market return?? So, by using index fund to match market return rate, I am WAY ahead of the game. And, this is NOT counting my annual asset allocation re-balancing bonus of selling high and buying low.

As a financially literate person, you should UNDERSTAND that risk adjusted return is the ultimate goal. To increase your wealth by 5 times in 5 years, that means you will be taking a HUGE risk. That is the REALM of speculator / gambler. Not the investor.

To lose 50% means that the person is 100% invested in stock. That is STUPID and not in line with asset allocation model investing.

Dreamer

Exactly. For most funds, there is no attempt at capital preservation, ie convert to cash if the market doesn't look good.

That is why for most funds, the ups and downs follow the index they are benchmarking with. The better funds will beat the index, the lousy funds will dip below. But that doesn't mean much when say, the index drops by 50%, and your fund only drops by 45%.

" 1. Long funds are passively killed in the market in bear market but cant outperform in bull market because they are followers and inability to realized the profit. "


Rock , all forumers here appreciate your further understanding of our statement above taking into accounts the questions below,

Unit trust fund are regulated investment fund not unregulated private trading fund.
Give us some examples of investments you personally managed that consistently outperform the bull market. How and by what measure/method it can outperform the bull market.
Explain your perception "they are followers and inability to realized the profit"

Whether you invest in fund or Bursa, to win in the stock market ( GU PIUH, GU GU HAH ) you need to have a mindset of both a trader and an investor. I pulled out of market months before the explosion. I doubt i will invest in the market/fund for the foreseeable future because the fundamental is not very solid.

IE, If we recover financially (DEBT PAID), the oil price will go high and likely hurt the economy BIG TIME.
If we're to keep the oil price low, the only way seems to be economic depression.

End result = Sluggish global economy or depression until we find a good replacement for oil ( Nuclear, Fusion, etc) and the debt/GDP is reduced significantly.


The above is my personal opinion.

Pay more attention to the "less" mainstream media/Blog then you'd be more sensitive to impending crash of anything.....The mainstream media or your unit trust "consultant" will not tell ya the reality until it's already TOO LATE.

Share market(Stock Analyst/CNBC) Vs Religion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxJvgbkDhng

MORE DEBT PLEASE - F**King NEWs CHANNEL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlp4M4H9i-4&feature=fvst

This post has been edited by mita: May 16 2009, 12:54 PM

howszat,

Every year, most of the fund do not beat the benchmark index. And, it is NOT the SAME FUND that beat the index. So, over 5 to 10 years, only a handful of funds beat the bench mark index. So, why even play this FOOL's game?? Just buy the benchmark index and you will be way ahead of the game.

Dreamer

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Added on May 16, 2009, 7:18 pmmita,

There are ONLY less than 5 counters worth investing in KLSE. And, why do you want to limit yourself to Malaysia only?? Malaysia's economy may NEVER recover.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: May 16 2009, 07:18 PM

This is a global mega debt deflation catastrophe. The US/EU/global credit bubble has gone bust just like in 1929 except that this is many times more severe than before. This is not just a malaysian issue because our economy are more globalized than ever. Of course our government policy could have made matter worse.


Check Nasdaq 8-9 years ago, the peak was at 6000, (DOT COM BUST ) how much it is now ?

The peak of Japan Stock market was at 37000 in 1989, (JAPAN CREDIT BUST) how much it is now ?

In the great depression (mega credit bust ), US stock crashed almost 90%. It took 3-4 years to complete the "crash course", and recovered only after WWII !!!!

Now that we have the largest economy in the world -USA, UK and also some EU nations going bust, Personally, I really don't see the reason to invest in the domestic or foreign share market for LONG TERM. Maybe GU GU hah(trading a little) Oklah ... Beware my friend, don't catch a failing NUKE ... One mega mistake and the only solution is to jump bridge...



This post has been edited by mita: May 16 2009, 08:07 PM

mita,

Yes, the WORLD has a problem now. But, Malaysia has EVEN worse fundamental problem that even the world recover, we will not.

<< Check Nasdaq 8-9 years ago, the peak was at 6000, (DOT COM BUST ) how much it is now ?

The peak of Japan Stock market was at 37000 in 1989, (JAPAN CREDIT BUST) how much it is now ?

In the great depression (mega credit bust ), US stock crashed almost 90%. It took 3-4 years to complete the "crash course", and recovered only after WWII !!!!>>

So what?? It is STUPID to invest 100% in stock market in any time period. To have investment strategy that you can sleep on for 5 years, you need to DIVERSIFY across the whole world and multiple asset classes.

Dreamer

TS, i hope u understand tht not everyone is as good as u in the finance market... hence they need a pro to help them to invest...
ur statement is more likely to ask everyone to fix their own tv; but the truth is not everyone noe how to do it... (how many uncle and auntie out there noe how to read annual report and caculate ratio???)

anyway i believe as a fund manager, ur client will tell u their risk preference... those wif extra money they don mind invest in a risky stock...
on the other hand, those wif little money, i believe they also don hope to earn big bucks but at least a better return then just put the money in the bank to earn interest....

anyway most of the fund managers did not enclosure all the information that you(client) need to know... this is not ethical but still everyone is doing so..

it will be more useful if u can write down some steps on how to identify bad fund manager or how to read annual report etc.... rather than ask ppl don play if they don noe how to play in the finance market... from the 1st post until now u did not mention anything at all but keep on bashing... ur words do giv ppl a wrong idea, if u don noe how to invest in the stock market don invest at all. put in the bank and die with ur money...
there is a high chance of getting HIV if u sleep wif different partners every night, but ppl still do so... wat u can do is educate them and not asking them stop having sex...

the problems now is all the forumers thinks this guy is a fake.

"working his entire life with fund management"?
It is perfectly logical a person may spent his entire life in fund management but knows NOTHING

gossips is now flying around that this guy job is removing
pile of dung left over by fund management workers.

Dreamer - he MAY not HAVE shared any practical useful investment information yet but if we give more rooms to others may HE may be able to share some insights for us, who knows?! I agree with you that we are not doing good in our investment skills, and thats exactly why he comes in as he claims that he wishes to share with us some insights? Shall we all keep quiet and talk about whatever he brought up only? Im Not talking about you, but some others responses are plain rubbish and deserved to be warned. Talking about the fallace of FM, I personally think there are fallace of FM interpersonal personalities as well - they are lacking of marketing and interpersonal skills.

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Added on May 18, 2009, 3:02 pmThese discussion has no purpose at all. No FM will guarantee you a percentage of return nor they should. It was the marketing tactic or the boss/owner of the fund to have done that. The promises was made by the FM as an additional job in his job designation. A FM is a manager to be fully responsible for investment the FUND (billions of USD that we are talking about) into diff products with his own skills and experiences, it is like predicting the weather - no matter how advance science we have now, but we still gets lots of unpredicatable earthquakes? why?
It is too innocent to take the promises of x % of return within y months. However, on the safe side, two can always draw a line of boundary by not losing z percentage of the investment or it has to be refunded in full.

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Added on May 18, 2009, 3:42 pm

Dreamer

Thats exactly why we should listen to the sharing of a FM who claims to be the very special 5% who is winning with ability and skills. And I really dont think you should spite him away just bcos u lost half of your assets before in stocks although i echo to chinese proverb: one day being bitten by snack, a whole life fear of grass.

Talking about gambling and investing, i think the difference is that gambling is going all with courage without blind faith, whereas investing are talking about skills and experiences.

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Added on May 19, 2009, 11:04 am

thy1986 - i think you havent read TS properly from his pov. Be he is a fake or not, we decide later, but i think he has been trying to share with us that 90% of how other FM has been failing and how and why. He also understands that most of us DO NOT have the skills and experiences as most FM, thats why he came in. It is alright we still need a pro to help us, so while we choose a pro, make sure WE KNOW WHAT WE CHOOSE, i guess thats what he has been trying to tell us.

I think his statement is not about telling others to fix their own tv, but with the sharing he has, everyone should LEARN of how to fix or even when you hire someone to do so, not just shut off the eyes and wait for the luck falling from sky, but at the same time monitoring with HIS sharing.

TS - Im not defending you but being in LYN for a long time I know generally LYN-ians only choose to read what they WANT to read instead of reading from a larger view.

thy1986 - your sharing below is great for TS. I believe TS is someone lacking of interpersonal skills or planning on how to share his idea. Let's give him more time and room, shall we?

This post has been edited by secretsquirrel: May 19 2009, 11:04 AM

Hi everyone,

keep shorting the market today......short Hang Seng Index Futures at 17400 again, big short here. Tomorrow get some big cap to ex-dividend, including HSBC. I guess this rally is the biggest and the only one in this year, everybody please fasten your seat belt. Have you prepare to see the worst in the coming few months? Have you prepare to buy when you see the worst, rather being scared your shit out?

Remember: Don't be too excited when you see the market going up crazy! Don't be scare when you see people commit suicide during the downturn of bear market! When you see blood on the street, it's time to buy crazy.

Rock

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Added on May 19, 2009, 8:29 pmYes, since they are being regulated, so are bounded by guidelines and i said in this forum that the market structure has changed to be so efficient so that the ordinary long and hedge fund managers (who are usually at least 40-50 yrs old people and they are so dump) cant adapt to the change. I worked with some old fund managers before that they keep their old way of thinking (mainly very very stubborn long bias view) and just like a deer in the headlight, do nothing in the bear market. These old fashion managers would keep at 40-50% investment actively in equities and wait to see the share prices going to toilet until 60-70% loss then stopped. I'm telling those guys that this world is no longer belong to you. It's our market, traders' market, traders with extensive knowledge to everything in the world.

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 19 2009, 08:29 PM

If the world recover, we will surely recover though not as spectacular as others. Malaysia is part of the globalized economic/Keynesian financial system. We are not North Korea or Cuba. If USA is the heart, Japan is the Kidney, Malaysia is like the testicle of the body, without testicle the heart can still live ......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Malaysia

Exports $195.7 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.)
Main partners : United States 15.6%, Singapore 14.6%, Japan 9.1%, People's Republic of China 8.8%, Thailand 5%, Hong Kong 4.6% (2007)


Imports $156.2 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.)
Main Partners Japan 13%, People's Republic of China 12.9%, Singapore 11.5%, United States 10.8%, Taiwan 5.7%, Thailand 5.3%, South Korea 4.9%, Germany 4.6%, Indonesia 4.2%






Warren Buffetts says that diversification is a protection against ignorance.
If you know that financial assets and housing assets are going to crash to the abyss because of massive debt deflation, it just doesn't make sense to diversify into these area right?

This post has been edited by mita: May 19 2009, 11:01 PM

In local context it's understood by default when they said unit trust fund, it's always long trust fund as locally naked short doesn't apply. Almost all trust funds are limited to the following instruments:equities,money markets,bonds. The fact that majority of the funds are equities trusts, there are required by funds mandate/objectives to be stay invested regardless of bull or bear market in shares or warrants at least 80% - 90% of fund investable assets.

Under such senario, is it still applicable for you to said "Long funds are passively killed in the market in bear market"

Of course yes there are in a way, but these are long term investment funds and the shares in portfolio are selected based on their fundamental basis not price/volume momentum like speculators would trade.

what we would like to hear from you is how you would drive these funds performance chart flying UP instead of flying down since you disagreed with most fund managers way of doing things.

More people buying or playing the same slot machine oh no i mean company share ( + brokerage/ unit trust fee) with the belief that the fundamendal is strong then the price goes up in value. We call this bull market.

More people selling their depleted casino chips/credits oh no i mean shares because a few sophisticated traders/investor have dumped the shares to take profits with advanced knowledge the fundamental will be weaken, the price goes down in value. We call this bear market ( wealth transfer from losers to winners )

This post has been edited by mita: May 20 2009, 12:09 AM