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 Fallacy about long fund, hedge fund & fund manager, 90% fund managers do worst than you!

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mita
post May 16 2009, 12:31 PM

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Whether you invest in fund or Bursa, to win in the stock market ( GU PIUH, GU GU HAH ) you need to have a mindset of both a trader and an investor. I pulled out of market months before the explosion. I doubt i will invest in the market/fund for the foreseeable future because the fundamental is not very solid.

IE, If we recover financially (DEBT PAID), the oil price will go high and likely hurt the economy BIG TIME.
If we're to keep the oil price low, the only way seems to be economic depression.

End result = Sluggish global economy or depression until we find a good replacement for oil ( Nuclear, Fusion, etc) and the debt/GDP is reduced significantly.


The above is my personal opinion.

Pay more attention to the "less" mainstream media/Blog then you'd be more sensitive to impending crash of anything.....The mainstream media or your unit trust "consultant" will not tell ya the reality until it's already TOO LATE.

Share market(Stock Analyst/CNBC) Vs Religion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxJvgbkDhng

MORE DEBT PLEASE - F**King NEWs CHANNEL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlp4M4H9i-4&feature=fvst

This post has been edited by mita: May 16 2009, 12:54 PM
mita
post May 16 2009, 07:48 PM

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QUOTE
Malaysia's economy may NEVER recover.


This is a global mega debt deflation catastrophe. The US/EU/global credit bubble has gone bust just like in 1929 except that this is many times more severe than before. This is not just a malaysian issue because our economy are more globalized than ever. Of course our government policy could have made matter worse.


Check Nasdaq 8-9 years ago, the peak was at 6000, (DOT COM BUST ) how much it is now ?

The peak of Japan Stock market was at 37000 in 1989, (JAPAN CREDIT BUST) how much it is now ?

In the great depression (mega credit bust ), US stock crashed almost 90%. It took 3-4 years to complete the "crash course", and recovered only after WWII !!!!

Now that we have the largest economy in the world -USA, UK and also some EU nations going bust, Personally, I really don't see the reason to invest in the domestic or foreign share market for LONG TERM. Maybe GU GU hah(trading a little) Oklah ... Beware my friend, don't catch a failing NUKE ... One mega mistake and the only solution is to jump bridge...

user posted image

This post has been edited by mita: May 16 2009, 08:07 PM
mita
post May 19 2009, 10:03 PM

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QUOTE
Yes, the WORLD has a problem now. But, Malaysia has EVEN worse fundamental problem that even the world recover, we will not.


If the world recover, we will surely recover though not as spectacular as others. Malaysia is part of the globalized economic/Keynesian financial system. We are not North Korea or Cuba. If USA is the heart, Japan is the Kidney, Malaysia is like the testicle of the body, without testicle the heart can still live ......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Malaysia

Exports $195.7 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.)
Main partners : United States 15.6%, Singapore 14.6%, Japan 9.1%, People's Republic of China 8.8%, Thailand 5%, Hong Kong 4.6% (2007)


Imports $156.2 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.)
Main Partners Japan 13%, People's Republic of China 12.9%, Singapore 11.5%, United States 10.8%, Taiwan 5.7%, Thailand 5.3%, South Korea 4.9%, Germany 4.6%, Indonesia 4.2%


QUOTE
So what?? It is STUPID to invest 100% in stock market in any time period. To have investment strategy that you can sleep on for 5 years, you need to DIVERSIFY across the whole world and multiple asset classes.




Warren Buffetts says that diversification is a protection against ignorance.
If you know that financial assets and housing assets are going to crash to the abyss because of massive debt deflation, it just doesn't make sense to diversify into these area right?

This post has been edited by mita: May 19 2009, 11:01 PM
mita
post May 19 2009, 11:48 PM

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QUOTE(Kinitos @ May 19 2009, 10:56 PM)
what we would like to hear from you is how you would drive these funds performance chart flying UP instead of flying down since you disagreed with most fund managers way of doing things.
*
More people buying or playing the same slot machine oh no i mean company share ( + brokerage/ unit trust fee) with the belief that the fundamendal is strong then the price goes up in value. We call this bull market.

More people selling their depleted casino chips/credits oh no i mean shares because a few sophisticated traders/investor have dumped the shares to take profits with advanced knowledge the fundamental will be weaken, the price goes down in value. We call this bear market ( wealth transfer from losers to winners )

This post has been edited by mita: May 20 2009, 12:09 AM
mita
post May 23 2009, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE
This has been proven WRONG. Malaysia had not recover from the 97/98 recession while others has. So, what makes you think that Malaysia can recover this recession??


I guess with a brain size of testicle like yours you can't see very well how interconnected our economy with other nations, If USA and Japan go broke, there won't be any trading between us and them. They would start pulling out their factories and investment out of our nation. When these developed nations recover, obviously, our economy is going to recover as well because there will be FDI and trading taking place between us and them. We are truly going to prosper or sink together though at different levels. When i say the word "recover", it means job employment, business/trading activities and etc .



QUOTE
Bingo. Unless you are Warren Buffet, you are IGNORANT.

In personal finance, there are ONLY 2 kinds of people,

1) Those who know that they know nothing.

2) Those who do not know that they know nothing.


No, i'm not, I was just trying to enlighten someone like you

QUOTE
So, tell me when the crash going to happen and when it is going to stop?? You DO NOT KNOW. And, nobody knows. So, a strategy that is based on TIMING does not work either.


There is a thing called Trend research and Forecast. You don't know the exact date when it will happen but you know it will happen . I avoided the latest market crash and made some money.

http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html

Your ignorance on global market and economy bemused me and you're calling me ignorant ? What a joke ...

This post has been edited by mita: May 23 2009, 06:09 PM
mita
post May 23 2009, 07:54 PM

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QUOTE
http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html >>

I have been in this for 20 years. And, every year, someone claim that there is a new XXX technique. And, they made money for a while until they went broke.

I wish you best of luck.


The trend forecast done by Gerald Celente is based on analysis of present event, trend, fundamentals and a whole host of factors. I can understand your difficulty in acknowledging (him) because you're just trying to win the argument here . But that doesn't mean you shouldn;t expand your knowledge by reading and understanding other tools/analyses to give you a better edge in the market

QUOTE
I wish you best of luck.

Same to you too.. We all need some luck to succeed .


QUOTE
You do not even understand what I am saying. You have NO IDEA about what is going on in Malaysia ECONOMY that is not related to global condition.


Of course i know what's going on in Malaysia, I'm pissed at what's going on but as i have said before , as part of a globalized economy, we are truly going to sink and rise together. Maybe we will rise so much slower than our neighbours but i don't know for sure.


QUOTE
The recession will just speed up the decline that is happening even before the recession.

Yes, Japan GDP is estimated to sink 16% , Spain unemployment rate is at 17% as we speak. Iceland is bankrupt with its government gone. Boss napping in France and etc

Have you seen TOYOTA TENT CITY ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rHrNfxEg8Ls

This post has been edited by mita: May 23 2009, 07:58 PM

 

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