1. Long funds are passively killed in the market in bear market but cant outperform in bull market because they are followers and inability to realized the profit.

2. Hedge funds are even worst since more than 90% hedge funds managers do not have clear concept on "hedge", they simply don't know how to make money in bear market. However, hedge fund managers are usually too short sighted. They like to take profit too early, so they may not be able to earn the biggest in the bull market.

3. Fund managers are only employees, earning salary/bonus every month and year. The money in the fund is not belong to them. So THEY CARE ABOUT LOSING AT ALL. They just care winning cos this will give them big bonus. Then they will take as much as risk as possible. This happens especially in hedge fund managers.

Conclusion: I think we should not waste time to discuss funds or fund managers. I think you should just sit back at home, find some ways to improve your investment knowledge such as reading companies annual reports, books about trading. Just to try develop your own sense to look at what is happening in the business world, rather than listen to other advices. I think 85% of people are loser in the investment world, 10% can make some money (small), only 5% can win big. Try to make yourself to be that 5% and if you cant do that. Don't even bother to waste time here. Be a teacher, policeman, doctor or lawyer will be better for you.

Do you agree?

whats bunghulios?

if i say, except for your health and families, money should be the most important to one's life, no one should disagree. I think over 90% of people are spending at least 1/3 of their lives to make money for any purpose. So i think if someone don't have the ability to invest (actually gamble to win will be more suitable) for himself, you shouldn't touch investment at all. Don't even bother to find those so called fund mgrs to help you to lose money. Just put it in bank, buy a property and work hard in your job. It's because you should take good care of your own money rather than leave it in others' hands.

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Added on May 8, 2009, 9:42 pmLet me tell you how to be that 5%.

1. Under logical arguments, you can hold a different view vs. all others. It's because 90% of the people are wrong in the investment world and this also explains why only few people can win the whole in the market.

2. When you have a different view, can you not be affected by the others? What will you do when all the others, including your mum, dad, wife, children tell you are wrong? Can you neglect them at all?

3. Can you admit that you're wrong when you made mistakes? It translates into "stop-loss". i.e. can you stop loss when you make mistakes? After you stop loss, can you learn from it but forget it after?

4. In other words, can you be a robot, a machine? No emotions at all? I can tell you 90% people lose not because of losing to others, but losing to himself. You lose to yourself, your emotion, your inconsistent behaviour.

Ok, even if you can have the above qualities, i can guarantee you won't lose in the market but doesn't mean you could win big.

I will tell you the qualities to win big tomorrow.

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Added on May 8, 2009, 9:44 pmdo you mean after they charge that fee, they cant beat the market?

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Added on May 8, 2009, 9:46 pmWho can do that? tell me.

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 8 2009, 09:46 PM

Thanks!

My point is: If you dont know how to play, Dont Play! Cos it is your money, dont put your life at risk cos Money only comes in 3rd or 4th in one's life, after Family and Health.

I never think WB is a God. His existence was a legadary At His Time. It was by chance someone could also do that by given such a chance at that time, here comes WB. If you study him and his life thoroughly, he has not special wisdom and skill than the majority. To me, I adapt Soros more than WB if you want me to choose a true investor with conquer skills and intellectual to face the wave of time.

Comes to gambling, of cos, Luck is critical.

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Added on May 8, 2009, 10:30 pmFirst, you said:

Then, you said:
Are you alright?


This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 8 2009, 10:30 PM

WB is influential doesnt make him a God. Is Dr M our Malaysian God who has been influential to our country history in the past decades, even influenced the people, we particular, our whole life?! Dont simply mention God, the greater power. What the majority think doesnt mean it is correct, it can only be seen as a influence force, but no statement indicate that it is correct thing to do, or I should.

What i tried to share is that: Not all of his theories work or he would have been doing greater than his younger times. The reason he is 'great' now simply bcos it was from His Time as I stated earlier. Put him to us now in our time, he is not an shinny investor anymore as compare to many others.

You may comment, critize or praise on anything or anyone you like. It is the right of speech

Yes, those things are known by people, very old fashioned. But can you do that? For every 10 years we will have a bear market and even you know that from history, there are still tons of people losing big. Tell me why? Cos we are all human, we make the SAME mistakes everyday, every year, every decades. Why so many people rush to buy stocks before the the market collapse? Why the turnover usually broke all the time record before the market collapse. you explain this to me?

My point is even you know what i said are correct but you still cant do that. Only 5% of people can do that and they can win big. That means you need to acting in extraordinary way. The world likes a Pyramid, only the tip is the success.

My successful methodology is not to be another fund manager to cheat other money. I mean you need to be a fund manager to manage your own money, to earn for yourself. This method is unique to anyone. Anyone cant copy your method and win the same like you. You develop your own method and can work only on yourself. Cos if you can beat yourself, then you could beat the market.

folks -

first, being a fund manager myself, the aim of opening this thread is trying to help out by sharing insights for those who arent, as well as trying to make friends with anyone who agrees to me.

I do not try to convince anyone to be my client as the co i work in only take in big clients. I criticize was to trying to help others who are lacking of financial skills to STOP wasting/spending money on those so-called 'fund manager' cos i live with them in my entire life, i know who they are, how they are like.

Im hoping to help anyone with interests of learning instead of stuffing food into his mouth, i prefer to teach him to fish. Thats why Im here. I hope u can read my posts again with a different pov from now on.

Once again, i believe winners are not only for genius. You first need to have your mindset in correct direction plus hardworking (try to know as many as things in the world). You still have chance to be the winner.

Im going to share something simple today - something can prove the method i mentioned it works and makes money.

Q1. Do you know what is the biggest consensus about the economy now?
Answer: 2nd half 2009 recovery of the global economy.

My comment: All wrong. If such a big bubble of banking bubble burst globally (especially in US and Europe) can recover after about 1.5 year (since 2008), it must be someone is joking or daydreaming. The bubble is bigger than ever in human history, bigger than tech bubble, any of those we know of.

2. Can China escape from this crisis?
No. US and Europe take over 40% GDP in the world. It is China (whole Asia indeed) to depend on US and Europe rather they need us. China will become the net importer from now on. China to import natural resources from US and Europe but at the same time exports are all dead like a dead fish. So called "World Factory" doesn't work any more. CHINA CANNOT SAVE THE WORLD, Please stop telling the joke.

3. But one thing we need to bear in mind that the market structure has changed a lot since 2000, due to the rise of internet. Traditional way of accessing to information from hard copies is an era past behind us, it is all about internet now.
The length of bear market will be shortened comparing with the past, say from 4-5 yrs to 2-3 yrs. It's because people need less time to be educated that this is a bear market as information flowing freely and quickly in internet and other media.

Conclusion: Don't lost faith upon current bear market cos IMHO the next bull market may come around 2010-2011. Hence, Now Please Sell everything on hand: stocks/real estates and buy them back around mid of 2010. Remember, not to worry too much about the downturn cos when all the people are bearish, then you take out your money under your bed and buy anything to ride the next bull.

What do you think?

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 14 2009, 09:48 PM

Thank you, Dreamer.

I'm sorry that the recovery may not necessarily happen in Malaysia even all the other markets do that because we have a pretty closed economy. Malaysia's edge is only oil. But oil price may not get back to over $100 level in the coming few years cos oil supply is so huge that there is no such thing of energy crisis at all.

I do agree what you said. My suggestion was meaning to try putting an eye/investment in Hong Kong and or Singapore market during 2010. We can still win big.

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Added on May 15, 2009, 6:51 amI will share a real example of my trading this week:

Action: I shorted Hang Seng Index futures twice this week from 17400 and closed yesterday at 16480, gained 1000 points in 3 days.

Rationale:
1. Hong Kong mkt turnover broke HK$100bn this week since 17000, but the index met resistance at around 17400-17500. Remember high turnover is a bad sign in bear market rally, meaning people came out to sell.

2. Dont underestimate the resistance in 250 day moving average.

3. It became a low quality rally since 16000 as many bad fundamental stocks also went up huge.

Follow up:
Now waiting for rebound today and short again around 16700-16800.

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 15 2009, 06:55 AM

Hi SS,

I'm so glad that there is one can understand my meaning. Thank you very much. Tell me your thoughts.

cheers,

crawler

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Added on May 16, 2009, 8:27 amDreamer,

You mean you believe in free lunch-Sleep tight for 5 yrs and suddenly your wealth will increase? There is high possibility that you get at least 50% lost if you don't put effort to manage your money, rather than increase.

I'm in peace without anymore fights as i do in my everyday's life, but to share as much as i could = unless you equip yourself, full armor, otherwise you should put money in bank FD, real estate rather than in the FM's hands.

rockcrawler

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 16 2009, 08:34 AM

Hi everyone,

keep shorting the market today......short Hang Seng Index Futures at 17400 again, big short here. Tomorrow get some big cap to ex-dividend, including HSBC. I guess this rally is the biggest and the only one in this year, everybody please fasten your seat belt. Have you prepare to see the worst in the coming few months? Have you prepare to buy when you see the worst, rather being scared your shit out?

Remember: Don't be too excited when you see the market going up crazy! Don't be scare when you see people commit suicide during the downturn of bear market! When you see blood on the street, it's time to buy crazy.

Rock

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Added on May 19, 2009, 8:29 pmYes, since they are being regulated, so are bounded by guidelines and i said in this forum that the market structure has changed to be so efficient so that the ordinary long and hedge fund managers (who are usually at least 40-50 yrs old people and they are so dump) cant adapt to the change. I worked with some old fund managers before that they keep their old way of thinking (mainly very very stubborn long bias view) and just like a deer in the headlight, do nothing in the bear market. These old fashion managers would keep at 40-50% investment actively in equities and wait to see the share prices going to toilet until 60-70% loss then stopped. I'm telling those guys that this world is no longer belong to you. It's our market, traders' market, traders with extensive knowledge to everything in the world.

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 19 2009, 08:29 PM

What i'm doing here is to show my view on the market and let everyone to justify the view/opinion. I've shared my pov in the my last post starting with sentence "Hi everyone..." I usually do things in a contradict way from last year.

Im trying to share my ideas in a blog, if there anyone interested, kindly pm me.

For anyone who Doesnt have any objections to things that i share, you do not have to response to my posts. I have no means to beat everyone in order to show that i conquer the world. Im only sharing for the good deeds of everyone, instead of gaining anything from you guys.

See! i'm right once again. The index is down consecutively 2 days, now trading at around 17000.

In Oct 2008, everybody rushed out and said Hang Seng Index would go to 8000. What did you do that time?

Now, everybody said HSI will go to 20,000. What will you do this time?

Tell me......

This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 22 2009, 10:44 PM

I also thought it has been well regulated when i started to work in this field 15 yrs ago but found out that regulators also dont know thoroughly about hedge fund cos this concept happened since 1990s only. Try to recall the situation in US in these 2 years, you would know even US people are so pro in investment, they still cant regulate hedge fund and investment banking.



high risker usually means higher returns and these funds are usually outperform in bull markets and so they should not perform worse than the other funds. By the way, investors love risk so much. If you tell someone that you could generate 5-10% only "sure win" , guaranteed.....i think not many people are interested still.



i can tell you i'm quite academic when i was studying in university and i knew every single formulae in finance. However, when i really work in finance, it seems like only myself or few people remember these formulae. Of course, fund managers will not be included.



same as my answer for question 3. 80% hedge fund managers only use long/short gross net exposure method for hedging. This gross/net method is just a simple +-x/ calculation without even using a scientific calculator. i cant imagine if we require them to use Black Scholes to calculate hedging ratio, they will switch back to work in long fund. By the way, i dont quite agree with the black scholes as it assumed normal distribution but the reality is not.



no comment....but if you have enough trading knowledge, you should get rid of fund mgrs and trade for yourself and that is the main theme of my blog here.



"time consuming for normal person".....really right and that's why normal person cant win.



it depends.....you could argue that trading in a fund is actually not flexible cos you need to deal with liquidity of stocks and you can even buy tiny cap stock due to illiquidity.



kind of agree.

you can do that.....that make sense to me. Remember that involved a great skill and knowledge to determine whether it's bull or bear. If you can do that accurately, you dont need fund mgr at all.



This post has been edited by rockcrawler: May 27 2009, 09:20 PM