Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

Bump Topic Add Reply RSS Feed

Outline · [ Standard ] · Linear+

 Fallacy about long fund, hedge fund & fund manager, 90% fund managers do worst than you!

views
     
dreamer101
post May 15 2009, 12:59 AM

10k Club
Group Icon
Elite
15,855 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 14 2009, 09:48 PM)

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
rockcrawler,

Stock Market is not equal to economy.

1) Global economy will not recover in 2nd half 2009. In fact, it probably will not recover in 2010 too.

2) Which stock market are you talking about?? In US stock market, the stock market is a leading indicator. The stock market tend to recover 8 to 9 months before the actual recovery.

3) Malaysia economy and stock market will not recover. Malaysia economy has not recover from 97/98 and now it is going down and not coming back up.

<<Hence, Now Please Sell everything on hand: stocks/real estates and buy them back around mid of 2010. >>

4) Which market?? Malaysia?? Malaysia will not recover. It will get worse over the next 3 to 5 years.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post May 15 2009, 08:59 AM

10k Club
Group Icon
Elite
15,855 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 15 2009, 06:40 AM)

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

*
rockcrawler,

You are a FUND MANAGER. It is YOUR full time job to watch the market and play the market. For REAL people like me, I INVEST. I have a REAL job some where else or I have a life to live. So, why should I spent that much time on watching the market?? In fact, if I CANNOT go to sleep for 5 years and be comfortable about what I am investing, I am doing something wrong.

I LOST 50% of my life saving learning this lesson. I ONLY invest on ONE managed mutual fund. The rest on index funds.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=VWELX

VANGUARD WELLINGTON INCOME FUND

It existed since 1930. It is the OLDEST mutual fund. No load and annual fee of 0.35%.

I only invest on ONE stock. And, that is because I used to work as supplier to that industry for a few years. I have sufficient knowledge to invest on that. But, still it is just play money.

So, I really do not understand the point of your thread?? Most people has neither the ability, willingness, or capability to speculate in stock market. They have a life to live. They have no business trying to beat fund manager or whatever.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post May 15 2009, 03:34 PM

10k Club
Group Icon
Elite
15,855 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
QUOTE(secretsquirrel @ May 15 2009, 01:03 PM)
Dreamer

Maybe he is trying to share insight so that everyone will stop falling into traps of other FM/investment traps... instead of trying to beat anyone in the forum.  Maybe he means for good, maybe everyone can lower their guards and give him more room to tell us more about his ideas, maybe.

SS
*
secretsquirrel,

So, tell me, what USEFUL investment information that he had shared??

My POINT which is VERY SIMPLE. Most normal human beings are not PROFESSIONAL stock traders. So, they NEED an investment strategy that works aka they can sleep for 5 years and it will be okay. Anything less than that, it will require TOO MUCH monitoring and it will not work for normal people.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post May 16 2009, 08:40 AM

10k Club
Group Icon
Elite
15,855 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
QUOTE(rockcrawler @ May 16 2009, 08:20 AM)

Added on May 16, 2009, 8:27 am
Dreamer,

You do believe in free lunch, right?  You do believe you could sleep tight for 5 yrs and suddenly your wealth will increase by 5 times?  I can tell the highly possibility that the result will be you lost 50% at least if you don't put effort to manage your money, rather than increase by 5x. 

I'm writing here to tell you guys that unless you equip yourself, full armor, otherwise you should put money in bank FD, real estate rather than in the FM's hands. 

crawler
*
rockcrawler,

<<I can tell the highly possibility that the result will be you lost 50% at least if you don't put effort to manage your money, rather than increase by 5x.>>

My goal is NEITHER to get 5 X Return or lost 50%. My goal is to get market return by using INDEX FUND. So, I am NOT putting my money into fund manager's hand except for a small portion in VWELX.

So, come back to us in 5 or 10 years that you can BEAT market return consistently after all the trading fees. Isn't it quoted by you that 90% of the fund manager cannot achieve market return?? So, by using index fund to match market return rate, I am WAY ahead of the game. And, this is NOT counting my annual asset allocation re-balancing bonus of selling high and buying low.

As a financially literate person, you should UNDERSTAND that risk adjusted return is the ultimate goal. To increase your wealth by 5 times in 5 years, that means you will be taking a HUGE risk. That is the REALM of speculator / gambler. Not the investor.

To lose 50% means that the person is 100% invested in stock. That is STUPID and not in line with asset allocation model investing.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post May 16 2009, 07:15 PM

10k Club
Group Icon
Elite
15,855 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
QUOTE(howszat @ May 16 2009, 09:13 AM)
Exactly. For most funds, there is no attempt at capital preservation, ie convert to cash if the market doesn't look good.

That is why for most funds, the ups and downs follow the index they are benchmarking with. The better funds will beat the index, the lousy funds will dip below. But that doesn't mean much when say, the index drops by 50%, and your fund only drops by 45%. smile.gif
*
howszat,

Every year, most of the fund do not beat the benchmark index. And, it is NOT the SAME FUND that beat the index. So, over 5 to 10 years, only a handful of funds beat the bench mark index. So, why even play this FOOL's game?? Just buy the benchmark index and you will be way ahead of the game.

Dreamer

Added on May 16, 2009, 7:18 pm
QUOTE(mita @ May 16 2009, 12:31 PM)
Whether you invest in fund or Bursa, to win in the stock market ( GU PIUH, GU GU HAH ) you need to have a mindset of both a trader and an investor. I pulled out of market months before the explosion. I doubt i will invest in the market/fund for the foreseeable future because the fundamental is not very solid.

IE, If we recover financially (DEBT PAID), the oil price will go high and likely hurt the economy BIG TIME.
    If we're to keep the oil price low, the only way seems to be economic depression.

End result = Sluggish global economy or depression until we find a good replacement for oil ( Nuclear, Fusion, etc) and  the debt/GDP is reduced significantly.
The above is my personal opinion.

Pay more attention to the "less" mainstream media/Blog then you'd be more sensitive to impending crash of anything.....The mainstream media or your unit trust "consultant" will not tell ya the reality until it's already TOO LATE.

Share market(Stock Analyst/CNBC) Vs Religion
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AxJvgbkDhng

MORE DEBT PLEASE - F**King NEWs CHANNEL
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dlp4M4H9i-4&feature=fvst
*
mita,

There are ONLY less than 5 counters worth investing in KLSE. And, why do you want to limit yourself to Malaysia only?? Malaysia's economy may NEVER recover.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: May 16 2009, 07:18 PM
dreamer101
post May 17 2009, 10:56 AM

10k Club
Group Icon
Elite
15,855 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
QUOTE(mita @ May 16 2009, 07:48 PM)
This is a global mega debt deflation catastrophe. The US/EU/global credit bubble has gone bust just like in 1929 except that this is many times more severe than before. This is not just a malaysian issue because our economy are more globalized than ever. Of course our government policy could have made matter worse.
Check Nasdaq 8-9 years ago, the peak was at 6000, (DOT COM BUST ) how much it is now ?

The peak of Japan Stock market was at 37000 in 1989, (JAPAN CREDIT BUST) how much it is now ?

In the great depression (mega credit bust ), US stock crashed almost 90%. It took 3-4 years to complete the "crash course", and recovered only after WWII !!!!

Now that we have the largest economy in the world -USA, UK and also some EU nations going bust, Personally, I really  don't see the reason to invest in the domestic or foreign share market for LONG TERM. Maybe GU GU hah(trading a little) Oklah ... Beware my friend, don't catch a failing NUKE ... One mega mistake and the only solution is to jump bridge...

user posted image
*
mita,

Yes, the WORLD has a problem now. But, Malaysia has EVEN worse fundamental problem that even the world recover, we will not.

<< Check Nasdaq 8-9 years ago, the peak was at 6000, (DOT COM BUST ) how much it is now ?

The peak of Japan Stock market was at 37000 in 1989, (JAPAN CREDIT BUST) how much it is now ?

In the great depression (mega credit bust ), US stock crashed almost 90%. It took 3-4 years to complete the "crash course", and recovered only after WWII !!!!>>

So what?? It is STUPID to invest 100% in stock market in any time period. To have investment strategy that you can sleep on for 5 years, you need to DIVERSIFY across the whole world and multiple asset classes.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post May 20 2009, 09:31 PM

10k Club
Group Icon
Elite
15,855 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
QUOTE(mita @ May 19 2009, 10:03 PM)
If the world recover, we will surely recover though not as spectacular as others. Malaysia is part of the globalized economic/Keynesian financial system. We are not North Korea or Cuba. If USA is the heart, Japan is the Kidney, Malaysia is like the testicle of the body, without testicle the heart can still live ......

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Malaysia

Exports $195.7 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.)
Main partners : United States 15.6%, Singapore 14.6%, Japan 9.1%, People's Republic of China 8.8%, Thailand 5%, Hong Kong 4.6% (2007)
Imports $156.2 billion f.o.b. (2008 est.)
Main Partners Japan 13%, People's Republic of China 12.9%, Singapore 11.5%, United States 10.8%, Taiwan 5.7%, Thailand 5.3%, South Korea 4.9%, Germany 4.6%, Indonesia 4.2%
Warren Buffetts says that diversification is a protection against ignorance.
If you know that financial assets and housing assets are going to crash to the abyss because of massive debt deflation, it just doesn't make sense to diversify into these area right?
*
mita,

<<If the world recover, we will surely recover though not as spectacular as others. >>

This has been proven WRONG. Malaysia had not recover from the 97/98 recession while others has. So, what makes you think that Malaysia can recover this recession??

<<Warren Buffetts says that diversification is a protection against ignorance. >>

Bingo. Unless you are Warren Buffet, you are IGNORANT.

In personal finance, there are ONLY 2 kinds of people,

1) Those who know that they know nothing.

2) Those who do not know that they know nothing.

<< If you know that financial assets and housing assets are going to crash to the abyss because of massive debt deflation, it just doesn't make sense to diversify into these area right?>>

So, tell me when the crash going to happen and when it is going to stop?? You DO NOT KNOW. And, nobody knows. So, a strategy that is based on TIMING does not work either.

An asset allocation based investment strategy does not based on TIMING. And, by rebalancing, you always SELL HIGH and BUY LOW.

http://www.marketwatch.com/LazyPortfolio

Check out lazy portfolio above.

Dreamer

This post has been edited by dreamer101: May 20 2009, 09:36 PM
dreamer101
post May 23 2009, 07:08 PM

10k Club
Group Icon
Elite
15,855 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
QUOTE(mita @ May 23 2009, 05:56 PM)
I guess with a brain size of testicle like yours you can't see very well how interconnected our economy with other nations, If USA and Japan go broke, there won't be any trading between us and them. They would start pulling out their factories and investment out of our nation. When these developed nations recover, obviously,  our economy is going to recover as well because there will be  FDI and trading taking place between us and them. We are truly going to prosper or sink together though at different levels.  When i say the word "recover", it means job employment, business/trading activities and etc .
No, i'm not, I was just trying to enlighten someone like you
There is a thing called Trend research and Forecast. You don't know the exact date when it will happen but you  know it will happen . I avoided the latest market crash and made some money.

http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html

Your ignorance on global market and economy bemused me and you're calling me ignorant ? What a joke ...
*
mita,

<<If USA and Japan go broke, there won't be any trading between us and them. They would start pulling out their factories and investment out of our nation. When these developed nations recover, obviously, our economy is going to recover as well because there will be FDI and trading taking place between us and them. We are truly going to prosper or sink together though at different levels. When i say the word "recover", it means job employment, business/trading activities and etc .
No, i'm not, I was just trying to enlighten someone like you>>

You DO KNOW that our FDI is going down year by year even before this recession. Hence, we have problem of our own not related to this global recession.

<< There is a thing called Trend research and Forecast. You don't know the exact date when it will happen but you know it will happen . I avoided the latest market crash and made some money.

http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html >>

I have been in this for 20 years. And, every year, someone claim that there is a new XXX technique. And, they made money for a while until they went broke.

I wish you best of luck.

<<Your ignorance on global market and economy bemused me and you're calling me ignorant ? What a joke ...>>

You do not even understand what I am saying. You have NO IDEA about what is going on in Malaysia ECONOMY that is not related to global condition.

We HAVE NOT recovered from 97/98. Over the past few years, we are dependent on the TWO OILS for growth. But, our manufacturing sector (other than oil and gas ) is sliding even before this recession. Ditto for our FDI.

The recession will just speed up the decline that is happening even before the recession.

Dreamer
dreamer101
post May 24 2009, 01:40 AM

10k Club
Group Icon
Elite
15,855 posts

Joined: Jan 2003
QUOTE(mita @ May 23 2009, 07:54 PM)
Of course i know what's going on in Malaysia, I'm pissed at what's going on but as i have said before , as part of a globalized economy, we are truly going to sink and rise together. Maybe we will rise so much slower than our neighbours but i don't know for sure.

*
mita,

<<we are truly going to sink and rise together. >>

My POINT which you are missing is this. Due to INHERENT problem in Malaysia's economy,

Malaysia economy will sink faster with global recession. But, it will not rise when the global economy recover. Malaysia's economy was sinking even before this global recession.

DReamer

Added on May 24, 2009, 1:50 am
QUOTE(mita @ May 23 2009, 07:54 PM)

The trend forecast done by Gerald Celente is based on analysis of present event, trend, fundamentals and a whole host of factors. I can understand your difficulty in acknowledging (him) because you're just trying to win the argument here . But that doesn't mean you shouldn;t expand your knowledge by reading  and understanding other tools/analyses to give you a better edge in the market

*
mita,

Let me give you two choices

A) 90% of the mutual fund manager cannot beat their bench mark index over the long run. So, in order to beat the mutual fund manager, you just buy the bench mark using passive index fund approach. This approach had been proven to work over a long period of time up to 100 years of history. And, you do not need to know ANYTHING to use this approach. You JUST have to accept that you are STUPID and average is good enough for you.

B) Some unknown technique that claim to be better than 90% of mutual fund manager. And, you have NO IDEA whether it will work over the long run. In order to work, you have to invest a lot time and energy and pray that you are better than 90% of mutual fund manager.

So, tell me would you choose (A) or (B)??

I am an investor. I setup my strategy and then I go to sleep for 5 years. I have a life to live. I do not want to spend my time watching the market. And, by the way, my STUPID method beat 90% of mutual fund manager. And, that is good enough as compare to some unknown method.

The ONLY kind of people that will choose (B) is a gambler. I prefer to own the casino instead.

Dreamer



This post has been edited by dreamer101: May 24 2009, 01:50 AM
« Next Oldest · Finance, Business and Investment House · Next Newest »
 

Add ReplyOptions
 

Change to:
| Lo-Fi Version
 0.0135sec    0.54    7 queries    GZIP Disabled
Time is now: 12th December 2025 - 08:31 AM
All Rights Reserved © 2002- 2025 Vijandren Ramadass (~unite against racism~)
Removal Request
Powered by Invision Power Board © 2025  IPS, Inc.