domo domo for your kind thoughts.

I agree with U if U are making / profiting like 10%pa+ already, good idea to take some risks off the table.
I think the question then would be:
a. How much to take off the table?
b. If kaka doesnt hit the fan (ie. no severe or long drops), then your cash holding how?
Should have re-entry plans if it happens (U have already) and if it doesnt happen methinks. Just in case lar

Just thinking in terms of exit/entry cycle yar, no right or wrong.

Just to toss some really obvious things into the fray:
2012 - ppl claiming end of the world around Nov / Dec
These people, will they do whatever they want, sell everything off & enjoy?
If they do, what are their "re-entry" plans IF end of the world doesn't happen?
No plans - ie. if world doesnt end, they end themselves?

Yar yar i know the 2012 end of world thing above is really "kua cheong" (ridiculous example), just that sometimes, examples of ridiculousness helps put things in perspective.

Just a thought

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jan 19 2012, 01:23 PM

e.g. ur strategy is value increase Fund ABC by RM100 every month

Jan-12 ABC dropped -RM100, so u will buy in RM200
Feb-12 ABC increased RM50, so u will buy in RM50

ini maksud "Value Averaging"?

Too simplistic Pink Spider.

Please refer to these books & PDF + google "TwinVest" as well to get "ini maksud".
Way too involved for me to explain the 2 to 3 methodologies here to U, although i can do a simple snapshot of execution calculation and results - though that may cause even more

Value Averaging: The Safe and Easy Strategy for Higher Investment Returns
http://www.amazon.com/Value-Averaging-Stra...26951581&sr=8-1

How to Make $1,000,000 in the Stock Market Automatically
http://www.amazon.com/How-Make-Stock-Marke...26951600&sr=1-1

A STATISTICAL COMPARISON OF VALUE AVERAGING VS. DOLLAR COST AVERAGING AND RANDOM INVESTMENT TECHNIQUE
http://www.studyfinance.com/jfsd/pdffiles/v13n1/marshall.pdf

Again, please note that i couple these with Asset Allocation, allocated resources % & filtered stocks / equity funds / REITs based on my own requirements yar (eg. consistent several years' ROE > or = xx%, D/E < or = x.x, +ve cashflow, DPS growth > or = x.x%, etc.).
Your mileage may vary - just like same martial arts, different practitioner

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jan 19 2012, 01:50 PM

Bro Wong, when did u start investing methodically, and what is your CAGR since then? I am sure you are one of the few who keep track of your investment at all time.

Bought one of the book highly recommended by u, "Secrets of the millionaire ..." but have not read yet. Could not find the book on Twinvest.

---

Added on January 19, 2012, 2:31 pmProblem with me is I never keep track if my KLSE stocks are making gains. Only border with total wealth (which is wrong). Care to recommend any software for easy tracking. Currently 50% on ASNB, 10% cash, 5% KLSE, 5% private equity. If after GE no severe drop, will put cash-in-hand into low PE market like China, KLSE PE a bit high.

This post has been edited by MGM: Jan 19 2012, 02:31 PM

Hey ya MGM. Me - methodologically?

Since.. hm.. 2004/2005, decided to put real $ to test & track a few methodologies (entries & exits) coupled with filteration & AA (asset allocation). I'm an idiot - no real $ on the line, i get lazy tracking Of course i did some back testing with historical prices / NAV too for 10 years and 5 years stretch but nothing beats real $ on the line to see if i will follow-through/how easy to execute.

Tried out TwinVest, AIM-HI, Trend as per the book "The TRENDadvisor Guide to Breakthrough Profits" and a few not too smart totally TA-based entries & exits (hey, i'm as dumb/smart as the next fellow ).
All in all, found that value opportunities + TwinVest + Trend works well in combination with my personal filtering methods.

Once done, in 2009 - i "rebooted" nearly all my investments and started "clean" with 50% of ammunition in Programmatic (no fear/greed) via TwinVest + 50% in Opportunistic (Value opportunities + Trend) executions to hit my AA.

Note - before 2004/2005 - was only using value opportunity entries for stocks (no REITs then) & DCA / lump sum for mutual funds.
----

Hm.. my CAGR in totality? Unsure wor.
er.. i dont count total other than Net Worth which thus far, ranges from 18.91%pa to 43.83%pa (woohoo end 2008 / early 2009 to mid 2010 ) based on a moving 12mths average differences.

Detailed CAGR got lar based on per transaction in stocks & REITs OR group of mutual funds via a methodology
Please note that the data below are based on 18/01/2012 NAV and limited to mutual funds only (since mutual funds' thread mar):
Prudential SmallCaps via buy lump sum (3 times) and hold stupidly since 2005: 9.56%pa
PFEPRF via Trend opportunity since 2009: 20.84%pa

PFEPRF via TwinVest since 2009: 3.80%pa
PIX via TwinVest since 2009: 9.06%pa
PSSF via TwinVest since 2009: 8.56%pa

PFES via DCA since Jan 2008: -7.91%

PBOND as just a storage for unused $ until deployed since rebooting 2009: 8.19%pa
PSBF as a storage for unused $ via EPF until deployed since rebooting 2009: 6.10%pa

Things i think of interest:
a. Wah! Bond funds' consistent returns are nothing to sneeze at. Dang the sales agents that keep pushing just Equity Funds
b. PFEPRF bought via Trend Entry - i made >66% net profit in less than 1 year. Took my cost +10%pa expected profits off the table, left the abnormal profits to run till now.
c. Prudential SmallCaps - buy & hold still works (assuming semi-good to good fund/fund mgt lar). This thing climbed to 26%pa+ before 2008!
d. PFES - whoa.. this thing can really swing. Good times can be > or = 25%pa (i take profits when > or = 25%pa and had several transactions hitting that earlier ), bad times.. tadaa

pheww.. my apologies for the long winded post. i hope the above helps gauge whether TwinVest, Trend + Buy & Hold is worthwhile or not

---

Added on January 19, 2012, 3:50 pmHeheh - i'm using simple old Excel (with several donkey years of customizing for easy triggering screen + tracking screens). No fancy software bro MGM. I can share a template for:
a. funds
5 sheets
worksheet that reads PM's website & Pru website for NAV
worksheet that holds the values & % held by categories - type of funds (Equities or Bonds) and via (Cash or EPF)
worksheet that holds the summary for each fund and using website worksheet's date & NAV
worksheet for tracking held details and using summary's date & NAV
worksheet for tracking switched/redeemed details and using summary's date & NAV

b. Stocks / REITs
3 sheets
worksheet that reads CSV exported from HLeB or Maybank - Equities
worksheet that reads CSV exported from HLeB or Maybank - REITs
worksheet for tracking held details, dividends & sold



This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jan 19 2012, 03:50 PM

Bro Wong, very good timing to start in 2009. Can see that most of your funds makes money. Profits % shown are after sales charge of 5%?
I notice that all are PM funds, why buy thru sales agent? Might as well buy as an PM agent.
2011 was a bad year for most funds, did u manage to make net gain too?

So u are using excel. I only have 1 UT fund. I am also using HLeb.

This post has been edited by MGM: Jan 19 2012, 04:03 PM

Hehhe - i AM registered as a PM agent since 2008 as i find that PM has enough above average equities and bond funds for me. Like i mentioned earlier somewhere, holistically (Supply Chain thinking), i switch between Equities & Bonds. Thus, lower costs in long term. Need only "good enough" funds from both types, needn't best of the best /
That's how i did my back-testing for PM's funds (huge amount of data & stats from their software)

Net profits shared relating to PM's funds in that particular post are after equity sales charges of :
5.5% for cash and 3% for EPF,
minus
agent's net commission ie. commission (say cash 2.75% or EPF 1.75%) * 72% to 74% (my tax rate's 26% to 28% depending on which year).
Thus, effectively my cost is about 3.5%+/- for cash & 1.7%+/- for EPF for PM's Equity funds.

For Prudential's SmallCap, i paid full service charges.

2011?
Entries done in 2011 (based on my per transaction tracking) are mostly negative except for end 2011's entries (TwinVest and Trend), which are making and those are bigger $ sum transactions, especially the Trend entries
Only bond funds are nice looking for all entries in 2011.
Just to clarify - the %pa i shared earlier takes into account all the entries' transaction date & amount VS current value.

Personal opinion, i'm not too flustered about 2011 - win some, lose some, main thing is win more % & $ quantum than lose. That's where TwinVest & opportunistic Value/Trend helps me.

BIG BIG clarifications ar - my intention to share all these are not for selling methodologies nor even mutual funds. I'm just sharing what works for me.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jan 19 2012, 04:49 PM

Sifu Wong, thanks for sharing.

This post has been edited by MGM: Jan 19 2012, 05:00 PM

You're welcome + i'm no seafood. Still learning or plenty of learning to go
I just hope i didnt confuse the kaka out of U and fellow forumers

Thanks for Wong for sharing. If Wong is working in my agency, then most of my UTC will be expert to using those data sharing. I like the way he creates those working methods with data pulling from CAMS & FP Advisor into Excel Spreadsheet. Thanks again...Hope year 2012 is a good ending....unlike year 2011 like a roller coaster trend. (High --> Low --> High)

Wishing all Happy CNY 2012 and more more $$$$$$$$ from your investment portfolio.

Paiseh paiseh - most probably if i'm in your agency, Transit, most of your UTCs wont even know i exist coz i seldom join my upline's group for talks/roadshow/etc. Actually, havent even joined once!
Only go for classes and that is just to get the donkey points to keep being an agent
Thus, i'm a bad example of a UTC in such light

To those celebrating Chinese New Year - Prosperity and REAL WEALTH (always enough $ * great health * great relations) to U & your loved ones.

---

Added on January 19, 2012, 7:05 pmSifus and Guru-jis here, can i pick your brains?
Please do take a look at the attached concepts and shoot/criticize with feedback on how to make better can ar? These are some of the concepts / ideas / opinions i share with my friends and investors (now crystalized on Power Point) - again, not for selling per se, but to build a base of knowledge and understanding, even before thinking of investing.

Any legal-ese advise would be welcomed too - heck, i dont want to get into trouble sharing opinion / concepts / ideas

Danke in advance
 To_Share___Simplify.zip ( 299.49k ) Number of downloads: 129


This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jan 19 2012, 08:28 PM

i was looking through your files and one of your criteria for stock selection is share price <= discounted intrinsic value. how do you get the data for discounted intrinsic value?

Based on calculations using Avg EPS Growth, Avg P/E, Avg Dividends, Total Returns, then discounting it by xx%. The EPS, DPS, etc. are taken from that KLSE book in my notes - lots of historical stats (EPS, DPS, P/Es, DYs, etc) + 3 years ratios.

Heheh - formula based on a book i read. I gotta go dig it out to recall the name - it's either the local book with the title like "Make $ in the Stock Market in Up or Down markets" (or was it the other one.. read 2 good books locally written) or Rule #1 by Phil T. If U really interested in the formula, let me know - i'll go dig out the book and compare to my Excel's formulas, then let U know.

Sorry ar - getting old & foggy, read those books like in 2002 or so, built the Excel 2003 or so - if i recall correctly

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jan 19 2012, 10:05 PM

U mean the book by Ho Kok Mun? I got the book as well.

Once you've filtered through the stocks, how do you determine buy and sell price?

Er.. i think so - i recognize his name

Once filtered for at least 3 years consistency in ROE, D/E, Cashflow, etc
+ Create trigger prices to buy in
eg. MIN(discounted intrinsic value, margin of safety)
OR discounted Price/NAPS
OR Gross DY%
OR discounted P/E

Trigger to sell: Simple Trailing Stop Loss of 10%





oh.. kaka.. sorry ar mods & admin, now only noticed i'm replying in a Funds thread
Jutamind - if more Qs, please post at Personal Financial Planning/Mgt (correct thread ar Mods & Admins? more fundamental approach than trading / TA in the Stocks area )

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Jan 20 2012, 08:16 AM

Hi, i just came accross this site, fundsupermart.com. looks not bad as the sales charge looks cheap. i just register online but not yet submit the documents for approval. anyone buy unit trust fund from this site before?

Yes. I did.

assuming that i have a UT fund that has returns of 30% over 3 year period and its sales charge is 5%. what would be the annualized returns of the fund (simple calc will do)?

is it (30% - 5%)/3 or (30%/3) - 5%?

imho, (30%/3) - 5% would give U a true-er view as the sales charge should be minused from the base

Just a thought - 30% gross returns without taking into consideration of the 5% sales charges? how in the world does that calculation / report happen? Which fund house or investment gives such weird calculations/reports? I'm just curious

Usually, the easiest way for CAGR calc:

CAGR %pa = (Current Value / Cost)^(1/years) -1

Where:
current value = units * NAV (ie. redemption value / sell back value)
Cost = total cost for that transaction

oh...that was my hypothetical returns

as for CAGR% calculation, how do u calculate if u have DCA? this will mean the current value & cost will always change every month...