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 Will you think the property market will fall soon?, will the landed property fall in 2024?

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peoplecallmefart
post Apr 28 2023, 04:56 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Apr 28 2023, 04:39 PM)
You’re right about some things here. In a free market surely there’s marketing tactics including fear mongering, speculation and other hidden behind the scenes things.
Now property and other things are priced with the assumption of double incomes compared to generations ago. This is the world now so it’s the reality for a buyer now.
I disagree with don’t buy young because, one, it does help to reduce wastages on unnecessary tobacco, alcohol, coffee, cakes and vices and secondly, one can own their home earlier too.
The right thing to do is to buy the right sized and priced property. And life is not fair, of course those with rich parents who help pay deposit or gift the home can affect others who have more ego than they have cash.
And by this stage all are adults, so it’s not other people’s fault (like developers, bankers, the so called 1%) if we didn’t do our homework and make poor decisions.
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https://open.dosm.gov.my/kawasanku

If according to chart by logic, the house price will stagnant soon despite the inflation rate, the house price will only increase with the inflation rate but not with high demand from the population of malaysia.

My next prediction for the boom in housing price is after 15 to 20 years later which is there are large amount of youngster grow up and step into workplace and will looking for new house. (But need to consider for brain drain effect too).

My own opinion is if u wan buy for own stay, go for it, if u are looking for investment, please please stay away from property market, the yield is no longer attractive already unless you are from wealthy family. biggrin.gif
A.B.D.
post Apr 28 2023, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 28 2023, 04:56 PM)
In the contrary, most bought post 2014 are under water.
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I believe majority of these cases are not prime landed property as specified by TS.
icemanfx
post Apr 28 2023, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(peoplecallmefart @ Apr 28 2023, 04:56 PM)
https://open.dosm.gov.my/kawasanku

If according to chart by logic, the house price will stagnant soon despite the inflation rate, the house price will only increase with the inflation rate but not with high demand from the population of malaysia.

My next prediction for the boom in housing price is after 15 to 20 years later which is there are large amount of youngster grow up and step into workplace and will looking for new house. (But need to consider for brain drain effect too).

My own opinion is if u wan buy for own stay, go for it, if u are looking for investment, please please stay away from property market, the yield is no longer attractive already unless you are from wealthy family.  biggrin.gif
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In the long term, poorperly price rise at about inflation rate.

By 2030, maluhsia will become a ageing nation.

QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Apr 28 2023, 05:01 PM)
I believe majority of these cases are not prime landed property as specified by TS.
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And majority of poorperly are not prime landed poorperly.
TrialGone
post Apr 28 2023, 05:06 PM

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QUOTE(peoplecallmefart @ Apr 28 2023, 04:56 PM)
https://open.dosm.gov.my/kawasanku

If according to chart by logic, the house price will stagnant soon despite the inflation rate, the house price will only increase with the inflation rate but not with high demand from the population of malaysia.

My next prediction for the boom in housing price is after 15 to 20 years later which is there are large amount of youngster grow up and step into workplace and will looking for new house. (But need to consider for brain drain effect too).

My own opinion is if u wan buy for own stay, go for it, if u are looking for investment, please please stay away from property market, the yield is no longer attractive already unless you are from wealthy family.  biggrin.gif
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Its already stagnant for a while even before the pandemic. Of course just based on my observation and spam calls from prop agent that keep egging me to "buy now or regret" like desperate addict.

But I'm gonna be real here, the govt will probably step in do something really really stupid like lowering entry price for foreigners to buy or increase bank loan to 40 years. Cause those are the only ways to raise FDI to make themselves look good for short term. If not this govt, prob next one. Like I said....people will never learn from history.
A.B.D.
post Apr 28 2023, 05:07 PM

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QUOTE(bill11 @ Apr 28 2023, 04:26 PM)
Wasnt in the podcast the MD also mention one of the KL project they have to reduce the RM psf from 1200 to 800/900 psf. Targetting local.
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At 17min+ he talk about a future project where planned selling psf price was 1.2-1.3k, drop to 900-1k after redesign and reducing offerings. Not a real drop for the same product.
TrialGone
post Apr 28 2023, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 28 2023, 05:04 PM)
In the long term, poorperly price rise at about inflation rate.

By 2030, maluhsia will become a ageing nation.
And majority of poorperly are not prime landed poorperly.
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Inflation rate doesn't affect much. Inflation means when food prices goes up so too is ur salary. It's usually offset by bank interest rate as well if u got enough savings. Of course not talking about hyperinflation here.

So say in early years the prop is rm200k but now is rm300k but salary by average also increase from rm1.5k to rm2.5k, thats not much impact.

The main problem is speculation which people really should not fall for.
bill11
post Apr 29 2023, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Apr 28 2023, 05:07 PM)
At 17min+ he talk about a future project where planned selling psf price was 1.2-1.3k, drop to 900-1k after redesign and reducing offerings. Not a real drop for the same product.
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Then you can agree with me the future is no longer as rosy as it seems. If you doesnt see that at least this developer sees that.
Now with more condo in lower pricing range it will make it congested and it is difficult to have all of these similar price range group of condo to get the price increase easily.
A.B.D.
post Apr 29 2023, 11:54 AM

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QUOTE(bill11 @ Apr 29 2023, 10:23 AM)
Then you can agree with me the future is no longer as rosy as it seems. If you doesnt see that at least this developer sees that.
Now with more condo in lower pricing range it will make it congested and it is difficult to have all of these similar price range group of condo to get the price increase easily.
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Ok let me clarify, I shared the podcast for the point about cost of construction which is relevant to what TS is asking, if landed in prime area like Subang Jaya will fall or not. He must have his reason for being specific about landed.

And for high rise, although things “not so rosy” as you can hear from the interview, but you can ask around. During pre-2010 before developer interest bearing scheme psf price was around RM200-300 then by mid 2010s around RM500-600. So the experience of those who could already buy since 10 years ago is that the longer you wait, the more expensive for the same area.

This brings me to another point. To a buyer, a Property is a physical house, its design, locality, street address, unit number and so on. It’s not practical at all for a buyer to just think about the Property market in general if looking for a home.
A.B.D.
post Apr 29 2023, 11:59 AM

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QUOTE(TrialGone @ Apr 28 2023, 05:13 PM)
Inflation rate doesn't affect much. Inflation means when food prices goes up so too is ur salary. It's usually offset by bank interest rate as well if u got enough savings. Of course not talking about hyperinflation here.

So say in early years the prop is rm200k but now is rm300k but salary by average also increase from rm1.5k to rm2.5k, thats not much impact.

The main problem is speculation which people really should not fall for.
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You can’t ignore the human factor. It’s the same everywhere, those who made money want to buy in specific area and push up the prices there faster than inflation rate. Then, those who are risk takers borrow beyond their capability to “gamble” there assuming further growth.
bill11
post Apr 29 2023, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Apr 29 2023, 11:54 AM)
Ok let me clarify, I shared the podcast for the point about cost of construction which is relevant to what TS is asking, if landed in prime area like Subang Jaya will fall or not. He must have his reason for being specific about landed.

And for high rise, although things “not so rosy” as you can hear from the interview, but you can ask around. During pre-2010 before developer interest bearing scheme psf price was around RM200-300 then by mid 2010s around RM500-600. So the experience of those who could already buy since 10 years ago is that the longer you wait, the more expensive for the same area.

This brings me to another point. To a buyer, a Property is a physical house, its design, locality, street address, unit number and so on. It’s not practical at all for a buyer to just think about the Property market in general if looking for a home.
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So far landed still good.

For high rise, yes 2010->2020 we can see the bull run(?). Now the question is 2020---->2030, will history repeat itself ? Is the politcial situation, local and oversea economy still the same as previous? Also i believe govt also doesnt encourage the house/condo price to rise that fast, hence last time bull we doesn't have that 30% downpayment. Also last time it is easier to push as the house price relative cheap vs income, but now ?

Anyway not here to prove you are wrong and i'm right. If you think the property work for you just go ahead and buy as long your DD is done.
TrialGone
post Apr 29 2023, 03:57 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Apr 29 2023, 11:59 AM)
You can’t ignore the human factor. It’s the same everywhere, those who made money want to buy in specific area and push up the prices there faster than inflation rate. Then, those who are risk takers borrow beyond their capability to “gamble” there assuming further growth.
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.....thats called speculation la. U do know what that term means right?

This post has been edited by TrialGone: Apr 29 2023, 03:57 PM
A.B.D.
post Apr 29 2023, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(TrialGone @ Apr 29 2023, 03:57 PM)
.....thats called speculation la. U do know what that term means right?
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I see it more as demand driven price increase. But yes, the ones who can barely afford to buy in prime areas hoping to make a profit are speculating.
But then they are not buying cryptocurrencies and NFTs at prices that can rival a real property. So the risk of their investment crashing is very low, especially if they speculated in high demand prime areas where there are more occupied than empty houses.
Whatever the motives of the buyer, in the end it is the demand for prime area properties that are supporting or cushioning the prices during bad times and pushing prices up faster than inflation during good times.

This post has been edited by A.B.D.: Apr 29 2023, 04:40 PM
TrialGone
post Apr 29 2023, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Apr 29 2023, 04:36 PM)
I see it more as demand driven price increase. But yes, the ones who can barely afford to buy in prime areas hoping to make a profit are speculating.
But then they are not buying cryptocurrencies and NFTs at prices that can rival a real property. So the risk of their investment crashing is very low, especially if they speculated in high demand prime areas where there are more occupied than empty houses.
Whatever the motives of the buyer, in the end it is the demand for prime area properties that are supporting or cushioning the prices during bad times and pushing prices up faster than inflation during good times.
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I genuinely have no idea what you talking about. At the end it's still "speculation". There are already low occupancy rate already so again I don't know where u get ur statistic from.
TSjrshow
post Apr 29 2023, 09:14 PM

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i know now inflation making the house higher price, but dont forget also high interest rate, not all people can tahan...
A.B.D.
post Apr 29 2023, 11:09 PM

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QUOTE(jrshow @ Apr 29 2023, 09:14 PM)
i know now inflation making the house higher price, but dont forget also high interest rate, not all people can tahan...
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Now it’s around 4%, so far since 2010 we haven’t experienced the real high interest rate that I heard from older generation, probably closer to 10% or maybe more?
icemanfx
post Apr 30 2023, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Apr 29 2023, 11:54 AM)
Ok let me clarify, I shared the podcast for the point about cost of construction which is relevant to what TS is asking, if landed in prime area like Subang Jaya will fall or not. He must have his reason for being specific about landed.

And for high rise, although things “not so rosy” as you can hear from the interview, but you can ask around. During pre-2010 before developer interest bearing scheme psf price was around RM200-300 then by mid 2010s around RM500-600. So the experience of those who could already buy since 10 years ago is that the longer you wait, the more expensive for the same area.

This brings me to another point. To a buyer, a Property is a physical house, its design, locality, street address, unit number and so on. It’s not practical at all for a buyer to just think about the Property market in general if looking for a home.
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Dibs fuelled poorperly speculation in 2011-2015. Price rise slowed after dibs discontinued.

QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Apr 29 2023, 04:36 PM)
I see it more as demand driven price increase. But yes, the ones who can barely afford to buy in prime areas hoping to make a profit are speculating.
But then they are not buying cryptocurrencies and NFTs at prices that can rival a real property. So the risk of their investment crashing is very low, especially if they speculated in high demand prime areas where there are more occupied than empty houses.
Whatever the motives of the buyer, in the end it is the demand for prime area properties that are supporting or cushioning the prices during bad times and pushing prices up faster than inflation during good times.
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Where are these prime area?
Chrono-Trigger
post Apr 30 2023, 04:22 PM

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buy property for own use , don't care appreciate or not right?

if buy for investment , then of course worry about appreciate or depreciate...
A.B.D.
post Apr 30 2023, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 30 2023, 03:56 PM)
Where are these prime area?
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I would describe as the landed housing estates of anywhere that is occupied by the upper tiers of society in terms of the general education level, profession and wealth.
The effect is that it becomes popular, in demand and often mentioned as the place one would have liked to buy and live if they could afford it, instead of staying 10-20km further out.
One of the indication is decades old link house 40-50 years, need major renovation or tear down and rebuild but the price is around or over RM1m.

This post has been edited by A.B.D.: Apr 30 2023, 04:24 PM
icemanfx
post Apr 30 2023, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Apr 30 2023, 04:22 PM)
I would describe as the landed housing estates of anywhere that is occupied by the upper tiers of society in terms of the general education level, profession and wealth.
The effect is that it becomes popular, in demand and often mentioned as the place one would have liked to buy and live if they could afford it, instead of staying 10-20km further out.
One of the indication is decades old link house 40-50 years, need major renovation or tear down and rebuild but the price is around or over RM1m.
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Probably less than 10% of poorperly fall into this category.
A.B.D.
post Apr 30 2023, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(Chrono-Trigger @ Apr 30 2023, 04:22 PM)
buy property for own use , don't care appreciate or not right?

if buy for investment , then of course worry about appreciate or depreciate...
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If never gonna sell then it doesn’t matter if appreciate or not as long as the area is perfect for you, better still if can get the cheapest leasehold unit.
If plan to downsize later and move to cheaper place then it helps that the house has doubled, tripled or more.

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