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 Will you think the property market will fall soon?, will the landed property fall in 2024?

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A.B.D.
post Apr 30 2023, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 30 2023, 04:25 PM)
Probably less than 10% of poorperly fall into this category.
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Ya that sounds about right.
Chrono-Trigger
post Apr 30 2023, 04:41 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Apr 30 2023, 04:28 PM)
If never gonna sell then it doesn’t matter if appreciate or not as long as the area is perfect for you, better still if can get the cheapest leasehold unit.
If plan to downsize later and move to cheaper place then it helps that the house has doubled, tripled or more.
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Good idea.

I see a few people, having lived in big banglo and houses, downgrade to condo once one of their spouse passed away , moving in to live with their children.

Some convert to condo, using the landed property value to sustain their later years.

Cannot "win" every time property market, sometimes untung , sometimes lose money. That is life.

Like me, I bought a condo because I thought I would work at that area, but life circumstance changed few years later...

Regret ? A bit in the past, but then, that is life. We cannot predict everything and expect to be correct all the time.

This post has been edited by Chrono-Trigger: Apr 30 2023, 04:43 PM
Donchay
post May 1 2023, 09:49 AM

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The bull run is actually around 2000-2011, the rest is what we are witnessing which buyers for investment are usually purchasers in bulk , or that same group of high rollers keep on buying, which gives the impression of property prices still floating.
In fact prop agents are the one who bought some of the units because of good entry prices due to goodwill from developers ; will you be more convinced to buy from an agent who owns no or just one house , or with an agent with 4-6 houses
Aimer247
post May 1 2023, 11:29 AM

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Freehold landed in prime area is king. A lot of people can't afford, that's why look else where.
jojolicia
post May 1 2023, 01:17 PM

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QUOTE(Donchay @ May 1 2023, 09:49 AM)
The bull run is actually around 2000-2011, the rest is what we are witnessing which buyers for investment are usually purchasers in bulk , or that same group of high rollers keep on buying, which gives the impression of property prices still floating.
In fact prop agents are the one who bought some of the units because of good entry prices due to goodwill from developers ; will you be more convinced to buy from an agent who owns no or just one house , or with an agent with 4-6 houses
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2011-2016 KV/Sel landed still very much doable by area.
ikanhangus
post May 1 2023, 02:19 PM

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Wait you drop your own house price first.

Ownself no drop, don't expect your neighbours to drop.
A.B.D.
post May 1 2023, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(jojolicia @ May 1 2023, 01:17 PM)
2011-2016 KV/Sel landed still very much doable by area.
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100% increase in some of those areas since 2011. Great investment for those who bought instead of buying a 2011 Porsche Cayenne laugh.gif
icemanfx
post May 2 2023, 08:59 AM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 1 2023, 02:35 PM)
100% increase in some of those areas since 2011. Great investment for those who bought instead of buying a 2011 Porsche Cayenne laugh.gif
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How much loan interest, expenses incurred during this period?
A.B.D.
post May 2 2023, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 2 2023, 08:59 AM)
How much loan interest, expenses incurred during this period?
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There’s no fixed answer for this, it depends on the buyer,
what is available to them in terms of cash, loan, their knowledge and connections for repair, renovation, to get good tenants, etc.
Whether one makes a lot of money, make just a little bit for ownself and a lot for the bank, or be bankrupted by the purchase depends on the buyer.
icemanfx
post May 2 2023, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 2 2023, 12:22 PM)
There’s no fixed answer for this, it depends on the buyer,
what is available to them in terms of cash, loan, their knowledge and connections for repair, renovation, to get good tenants, etc.
Whether one makes a lot of money, make just a little bit for ownself and a lot for the bank, or be bankrupted by the purchase depends on the buyer.
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4% p.a compound for 12 years is 160%

eymc
post May 2 2023, 02:21 PM

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anything before 2010 cash cows now. timing la...not every one have the capacity to own if timing wrong. kira nasib also. say you are only 18 yrs old in 2010 even you know what to buy but no credentials. So you must have been in early 20s and ready credentials you are the winner.

bill11
post May 2 2023, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 1 2023, 02:35 PM)
100% increase in some of those areas since 2011. Great investment for those who bought instead of buying a 2011 Porsche Cayenne laugh.gif
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i take AAPL 2011-2013, the highest price to now, you are getting 570% return.

So there are other investment can generate better return. Dont die die property only.
desmond2020
post May 2 2023, 02:31 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 2 2023, 02:07 PM)
4% p.a compound for 12 years is 160%
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you did learn about reducing balance?
A.B.D.
post May 2 2023, 02:45 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ May 2 2023, 02:07 PM)
4% p.a compound for 12 years is 160%
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Loan interest of around 4% p.a. in past 12 years is a blessing, most buyers at that time took the risk and didn’t choose fixed rate of around 5%. It even went down to around 3% for some time for buyers who got BLR -2.5% or better.
Anyway loans cannot be free of charge, but in a well located property it can be easily covered by well screened good tenant.
jojolicia
post May 2 2023, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 2 2023, 02:45 PM)
Loan interest of around 4% p.a. in past 12 years is a blessing, most buyers at that time took the risk and didn’t choose fixed rate of around 5%. It even went down to around 3% for some time for buyers who got BLR -2.5% or better.
Anyway loans cannot be free of charge, but in a well located property it can be easily covered by well screened good tenant.
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Yup, those were the days of mortgage lending at BLR minus. I think easily 20 years ago (late 90s/early 20s). Anwar pon sudah PM now lo

The cycle may come again, no one knows for sure

This post has been edited by jojolicia: May 2 2023, 03:02 PM
A.B.D.
post May 2 2023, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(bill11 @ May 2 2023, 02:31 PM)
i take AAPL 2011-2013, the highest price to now, you are getting 570% return.

So there are other investment can generate better return. Dont die die property only.
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No doubt more people choose shares as investment for ease of entry and cashing out. But it’s a completely different product from real estate that is physical and tangible and can generate rental income.
Therefore very few people buy shares from young at the value that can buy a house and at one time to lock in the price. If only dare to buy in small amounts what is the point of 570% return?
bill11
post May 2 2023, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ May 2 2023, 03:12 PM)
No doubt more people choose shares as investment for ease of entry and cashing out. But it’s a completely different product from real estate that is physical and tangible and can generate rental income.
Therefore very few people buy shares from young at the value that can buy a house and at one time to lock in the price. If only dare to buy in small amounts what is the point of 570% return?
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Until one went through the process of rental business, all the hassle, time needed, income tax computation, ROI, property/assets get damaged and replacement for each time the tenant moved out.

After that they will know which investment tools will be better for them.
A.B.D.
post May 2 2023, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(bill11 @ May 2 2023, 03:44 PM)
Until one went through the process of rental business, all the hassle, time needed, income tax computation, ROI, property/assets get damaged and replacement for each time the tenant moved out.

After that they will know which investment tools will be better for them.
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fair comment, it can't be great all the time and for everyone.
ericyong
post May 3 2023, 09:41 AM

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QUOTE(A.B.D. @ Apr 28 2023, 02:06 PM)
I just listened to this BFM podcast, around 6:30min the MD of Crest Builder talk about construction cost going up and house buyers need to pay more.

https://www.bfm.my/podcast/morning-run/the-...fixed-contracts

Subsale will automatically adjust pricing up too. This is another reason house prices cannot fall, especially in the high demand area. And thread title specify landed house, worse still, in high demand area it has become limited edition already.
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It is true that costs have gone up a lot.

In comparison, taking just steel into account - prices per RM1900/ton preCovid, and rose to RM3500/ton in mid2021 before hovering downwards. Today, prices are still around RM3000/ton. And that is just steel - cement, concrete, glass, aluminium have all rose way above preCovid prices.

Labour costs is also another issue. Since the lockdowns and border closures in 2020/21, many foreign workers have gone back and could not come back. Then when they were allowed to come back, the costs had shot up tremendously. An Indonesian coming into Malaysia with permit and visa would cost at least RM5,000 including levy and permits. A Bangladeshi coming in costs as much as RM18k back in 2021, and prices have come down to about RM12-14k now but it is still very expensive compared to before. A carpenter used to earn RM90-110/day preCovid - today averages at least 175-200 already.

Interest rates have gone up too, causing the cost of financing to go up.


That being said, it is undeniable that the cost of construction had gone up a lot. Most of the affordable housing that you see today selling at RM250k for a 1000sqft - those are considered a bargain steal if you can qualify and get the unit because the cost of construction for these type of housing is already RM140-150psf. Taking into account consultancy and professional fees another 10%, local authority fees plus IWK TNB Syabas etc etc another 8-10%, marketing costs of say 4-5%, the cost of development without counting the cost of land is already almost RM200psf. IF the land is in a slightly more prime area, going for RM200psf, based on a plot ratio 1:5, the gross cost per sqft is already RM40 - and with say an efficiency of 80%, the cost would be RM50 already psf for land - making it already RM250psf.

Today, land cost are very much above those figures in prime areas - some are as high as RM400-500psf for areas such as Klang, Seri Kembangan and Selayang, and exceeds RM800-1000psf for areas such as Petaling Jaya. A more middle-cost type of development would cost at least RM300-350psf, and taking similar percentages, cost of such projects would easily be RM480-500psf.


ANYWAYS, property around the world have always been known as the best hedge against inflation. If you have some spare cash, or want to invest, it would be ideal to go into real estate. Kuala Lumpur and Klang Valley has got a peculiar double-whammy dilemma - its highest and most luxury properties are going for RM1800psf averagely, which is USD400psf - making it still the cheapest in the region versus Jakarta, Bangkok and even Phnom Penh. Singapore's highest are way higher. So theres plenty of room to grow. The only thing keeping our properties from going much higher are due to Government initiatives to keep on pushing the affordable housing (especially those with subsidies). If KL's properties were to be more open, I believe our properties would be much high and the market value would be higher.
jojolicia
post May 3 2023, 10:11 AM

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QUOTE(ericyong @ May 3 2023, 09:41 AM)
It is true that costs have gone up a lot.

In comparison, taking just steel into account - prices per RM1900/ton preCovid, and rose to RM3500/ton in mid2021 before hovering downwards. Today, prices are still around RM3000/ton. And that is just steel - cement, concrete, glass, aluminium have all rose way above preCovid prices.

Labour costs is also another issue. Since the lockdowns and border closures in 2020/21, many foreign workers have gone back and could not come back. Then when they were allowed to come back, the costs had shot up tremendously. An Indonesian coming into Malaysia with permit and visa would cost at least RM5,000 including levy and permits. A Bangladeshi coming in costs as much as RM18k back in 2021, and prices have come down to about RM12-14k now but it is still very expensive compared to before. A carpenter used to earn RM90-110/day preCovid - today averages at least 175-200 already.

Interest rates have gone up too, causing the cost of financing to go up.
That being said, it is undeniable that the cost of construction had gone up a lot. Most of the affordable housing that you see today selling at RM250k for a 1000sqft - those are considered a bargain steal if you can qualify and get the unit because the cost of construction for these type of housing is already RM140-150psf. Taking into account consultancy and professional fees another 10%, local authority fees plus IWK TNB Syabas etc etc another 8-10%, marketing costs of say 4-5%, the cost of development without counting the cost of land is already almost RM200psf. IF the land is in a slightly more prime area, going for RM200psf, based on a plot ratio 1:5, the gross cost per sqft is already RM40 - and with say an efficiency of 80%, the cost would be RM50 already psf for land - making it already RM250psf.

Today, land cost are very much above those figures in prime areas - some are as high as RM400-500psf for areas such as Klang, Seri Kembangan and Selayang, and exceeds RM800-1000psf for areas such as Petaling Jaya. A more middle-cost type of development would cost at least RM300-350psf, and taking similar percentages, cost of such projects would easily be RM480-500psf.
ANYWAYS, property around the world have always been known as the best hedge against inflation. If you have some spare cash, or want to invest, it would be ideal to go into real estate. Kuala Lumpur and Klang Valley has got a peculiar double-whammy dilemma - its highest and most luxury properties are going for RM1800psf averagely, which is USD400psf - making it still the cheapest in the region versus Jakarta, Bangkok and even Phnom Penh. Singapore's highest are way higher. So theres plenty of room to grow. The only thing keeping our properties from going much higher are due to Government initiatives to keep on pushing the affordable housing (especially those with subsidies). If KL's properties were to be more open, I believe our properties would be much high and the market value would be higher.
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You are eric yong?

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