Well,... off the top of my head now, I'm not using any theory. I just called out an observation to you, and an internal gut feel that the SGD is strengthening vs the USD now. But longterm wise,.. I'm not making any calls. Look at the USDSGD=X graph,... I recalled it's been rangebound these few years.

MAS intervened by strengthening its currency using the S$NEER band. I think,.. MAS has done this 4 times this year. I noticed every night, in the ppast few evenings,.. watching CNA. The running news at the bottom of the screen,.. at a certain interval, the 'Currencies' will roll past.

And I saw for SGD, it's gotten to below 1.40 last night,... I think it was at 1.39XX,... hence, the strengthening.

I feel,... the SGD will have a chance to strengthen to,.. say, 1.38 vs the USD,... soon,...

Yes 1.38 ish quite doable

MAS seems to have trouble producing the bid results...

Normally it's available between 1 to 2 pm. This time maybe CPF hot money flowing in...

Guess my 4.7% will not make it with those kiasu kiasi CPF monies bidding low...

Maybe between 4.4 to 4.5?

Maybe. I still keep my fingers cross that institution money will outnumber those CPF hot monies since institutions provide "more realistic" figure.

Did you submit a few competitive bids with different desired yields? At least can get some.

No, I am a strong believer in the "1 market 1 price" mantra. I don't treat bidding in an auction like some fun number/lottery game where you "test water" with multiple bids and hope all stars aligned.

So just 1 yield for each auction. If it does not meet my expectation, I will go in next round or move my funds elsewhere.

Of course it's totally fine if you submit multiple bids. I just feel like such action distorts the market pricing and is a very irresponsible market abusing behaviour.

This post has been edited by TOS: Nov 10 2022, 04:51 PM

no bro... one big order at one price creates a buy or sell wall... this basically block the price from moving... this is actually the irresponsible action...

big orders are encouraged to split/spread it around... even ibkr has a tool for it... or do it otc to not disrupt the market...

I have no moral obligation to care about price movement. I bid at the price I want. Whether you want to sell to me at this price/yield is entirely your choice. We have different moral views haha. (My fiduciary duty is to "get the best execution price for my client (i.e. me)", not "generating liqudity and ensure market moves smoothly". That is the job of a market maker, which is why you have primary dealers for T-bills.)

Fair enough. But that is if you have the capital to do so. Retail investors won't have that luxury unless you go in at 10-20k SGD each time. It would be nice if I can split my bids at 100 SGD for 10 different bids, but minimum is 1k SGD, so I reserve that for the highest yield I believe to be reasonable.

Anyway, this is an auction, not continuous market making. In typical Sotheby-like artifacts auctions, I don't see bidders "split" bids like what you mention. The bidders just throw out any price they deem reasonable. MAS bills auctions differ from Sotheby-like auctions in that you can't inspect the order books before hand, nor can you see what other bidders are bidding in real-time. So there is no way you can "split" bids while ensuring no one bumps into you at the price range you bid. Not sure if your IBKR comparison is relevant to either case.

This post has been edited by TOS: Nov 10 2022, 07:10 PM

My bid 4.25% got refunded. Hwz reported the yield is about 3.99% only. All these kiasu pipu…

Arghhhh.... Those kiasu kiasi bidders!!!





Source: https://www.mas.gov.sg/bonds-and-bills

This post has been edited by TOS: Nov 10 2022, 07:49 PM

I'm responding to your last para... "Of course it's totally fine if you submit multiple bids. I just feel like such action distorts the market pricing and is a very irresponsible market abusing behaviour."

this is a very strong view/position... imagine buying lottery or playing roulette but you are limited to only one... but since multiple bids are allowed, obviously MAS doesn't share your concerns...

anyways... do what you must...

You got a point. I should drop the word "very".

I choose the NC route, partially refunded...

Bid 4.3% got refunded as well. I think a lot people buy with CPF funds..

We underestimated CPF power... Many Sporeans like my SG friend also got refunded. They bid around 4.2-4.5% too.

I wonder how those institutions would react. I don't believe they bid at 4% p.a, judging by the fact that just a few days back 50% bid between 4.2% to 4.6% for a 12-week/3-month bill.

Wahh, bros,... 4% only,... AND LOCKED FOR 6 MONTHS. Might as well go for SSB,....

And bloody CPI Reading for October was just released. Only 7.7%,... below the 7.9% consensus. So,.. stocks will fly tmrw,.... bad for me. Bad for us,....

SSB most probably will get sgd10k or less only. Anyway i will still try to apply 15k maybe get lucky….

The difference this time compared to the last round is,.. the allocated amt this time is $1bil,... correct me if I'm wrong,... last mth,... this amt to be 'given out' was just $800mil,... So,.. maybe can get allocated 10K units again, because more people might be applying.

Yeah,... I'll use 15K to enter too,...