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 SG Savings Bond (SSB) & Treasury Bills (T-bills), Guaranteed by Singapore Government

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Hansel
post Jun 3 2022, 12:09 PM

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Good discussions in the above, bros,... For myself,...

1) I put into SSB when I see interest rates are rising, that's when the SSB interest rates will be higher.

2) SSB is a parking facility till interest rates start to turn, and I will liquidate my SSB, to buy REITs, tech stocks and whatever else.

3) Emm,... when I reached my withdrawal age, I MIGHT NOT withdraw everything from EPF to be pumped into SSB. But,.. let's imagine I am able to withdraw my EPF this year, I would have withdrawn half and converted into the SGD at the beginning of this year after I saw MAS did a tightening in end-2021.

4) And finally,... I would buy into Astrea bonds denominated in the SGD and in the USD tho' the risk rating is higher. I would also buy into Astrea bonds when interest rates are rising, like today.

For your infos,... Astrea 7 has been launched and was recently floated in the exchange last week. They are available in the exchange, under the following codes :-

a) V7AB : 4.125% pa denominated in the SGD.
b) V7BB : 6.00% pa, denominated in the USD.


But, be careful,... when interest rates rise further, the bond price (in the secondary mkt) may fall. Then you'll have to hold till maturity if you wish to get back your par values. This is a major risk. Pls read the documents if need to know of other risks.
Hansel
post Nov 6 2022, 07:36 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 4 2022, 06:38 PM)
It's still early even though it's a little less than 1 week away. Need to monitor US 6-month yield movements as always.

I do see some on HWZ claiming to bid at 4.5 to 4.6% p.a using their CPF OA monies.

I shall wait for next Tuesday's 4-week and 12-week MAS bill auction results to make the final decision.
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...tq bro,... problem is,... after it has matured, what do we do with the funds returned to us ? Perhaps too late to go into REITs and stocks,... and by then, interest rates could have pivotted. Then we're stuck with a lot of money in-hand,...
Hansel
post Nov 7 2022, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 6 2022, 09:03 PM)
There is another thing you can consider trying: US Corporate Bonds with min 2k USD, subsequently 1k USD-interval denomination.

Pick the AAA/super strong ones like AAPL, MSFT and JNJ. Choose maturity 1-2 months away. Only 1-2 USD commissions per trade. Check the coupons though. Make sure they are comparable with prevailing rates.

I have checked their reactions during crises. Still some very small spikes, but good enough substitutes, if you are fine with it. 

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


This is one example:

https://bondfacts.finra.org/AAPL4562449?

You can see from this link that the bid/ask spread has widen this year, resulting in larger difference in daily yields: https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondC...cusip=037833DE7

You may calculate the dirty price here, which included the accued interests: https://www.bondsupermart.com/bsm/bond-fact...et/US037833DE71

And there's some chance of little capital gain if you bid a low enough price: https://finra-markets.morningstar.com/BondC...=11%2F04%2F2022 (arrange by yield descending from the largest to the smallest)

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Tq for all your replies, bro,... Yes, I'm already into USD FDs with DBS. But,... how do you buy the US Corporate Bonds ?
Hansel
post Nov 8 2022, 01:29 PM

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bros,... if you are bidding for 4.4%, why not you buy : FPTREA 4.49%270916XB# ?

The above is now giving out more than 4.49% yield since the price is below the par value of $1.00 now.

With the Feds soon to pivot,... or least pause,... the price won't drop much anymore.
Hansel
post Nov 8 2022, 01:59 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Nov 8 2022, 01:34 PM)
One is issued by Sg Gov another by private company. If both about same yield which one would you choose?
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If truly same yield, then obviously, the SG Govt's one.

But I would not under-rate Frasers' credit rating here. And secondly, Frasers offers a slightly higher effective rate now since the bond price is below $1.00,...

The Frasers Green Bond is 'continuous' for the next few years and will not leave me exposed with money in my hands after the next 6 mths, unlike the T-Bill which will return my money in 6-mths time.
Hansel
post Nov 8 2022, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Nov 8 2022, 03:11 PM)
Just be cautious of any private bonds. For reading pleasure only

https://www.dividendtitan.com/frasers-prope...-buying-at-4-49

https://www.dividendtitan.com/frasers-property-green-bonds/

[attachmentid=11301602]
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Yes,... to diversify your risks among bonds, you can actually buy into a bond fund. Bond funds was one of my first instruments when I first started investing,....
Hansel
post Nov 9 2022, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 8 2022, 11:16 PM)
lol still reasonable.

I was looking at 3 month SG in comparison with 3 month US rates. The cut-off for SG side was 4.4, but US only side only 4.2%, so I suspect the SG rates may be better than US side.

That would also possibly mean SGD may not appreciate that strongly against USD in near term or may have mild depreciation since the SG rates are higher than US rates.
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No bro,..................

Look at the USDSGD Chart in Yahoo Finance,............... the SGD has been APPRECIATING vs the USD. The SGD is getting stronger and stronger in the past few days. The SGD might end up as the best performing currency in the near term,...
Hansel
post Nov 9 2022, 07:40 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 9 2022, 04:46 PM)
I ain't a chartist. wink.gif You can consult dwRK for chart matters.

But I am aware of a macroeconomic principle known as "interest rate parity". There are others like PPP (purchasing power parity) and IFE (international fisher effect) but IRP has been shown to be true empirically, allowing for some trading costs and other opportunity costs.

http://mays.tamu.edu/center-for-internatio...Chapter-008.pdf
You can check the USD/SGD forward rate here: https://www.investing.com/currencies/usd-sgd-forward-rates or here https://www.barchart.com/forex/quotes/USDSGD.M/overview

Of course another possibility is difference in US and SG inflation rate, that's Fisher effect at play. I can't find SG inflation forecast data, so can't deduce that.

But you can be sure in the long run, SGD's appreciation (against USD) will always mean SG rates are lower than the US side. Short-term, I may be wrong.
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Well,... off the top of my head now, I'm not using any theory. I just called out an observation to you, and an internal gut feel that the SGD is strengthening vs the USD now. But longterm wise,.. I'm not making any calls. Look at the USDSGD=X graph,... I recalled it's been rangebound these few years.
Hansel
post Nov 9 2022, 07:56 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Nov 9 2022, 06:46 PM)
user posted image

since 2010... usd has gotten stronger overall... now looks like it is range-bound

also looks like mas has intervene recently and sgd is slowly strengthening... until break the support, don't think is going anywhere soon...

for comparison...
user posted image

the 2015-17 rise in USD imho is GE/1mdb... and unlike sg lately, BNM not intervening much... except today something is happening... myr doing OK relatively before 1mdb...
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MAS intervened by strengthening its currency using the S$NEER band. I think,.. MAS has done this 4 times this year. I noticed every night, in the ppast few evenings,.. watching CNA. The running news at the bottom of the screen,.. at a certain interval, the 'Currencies' will roll past.

And I saw for SGD, it's gotten to below 1.40 last night,... I think it was at 1.39XX,... hence, the strengthening.

I feel,... the SGD will have a chance to strengthen to,.. say, 1.38 vs the USD,... soon,...
Hansel
post Nov 10 2022, 10:35 PM

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Wahh, bros,... 4% only,... AND LOCKED FOR 6 MONTHS. Might as well go for SSB,....

And bloody CPI Reading for October was just released. Only 7.7%,... below the 7.9% consensus. So,.. stocks will fly tmrw,.... bad for me. Bad for us,....
Hansel
post Nov 11 2022, 09:55 AM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Nov 10 2022, 10:45 PM)
SSB most probably will get sgd10k or less only. Anyway i will still try to apply 15k maybe get lucky….
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The difference this time compared to the last round is,.. the allocated amt this time is $1bil,... correct me if I'm wrong,... last mth,... this amt to be 'given out' was just $800mil,... So,.. maybe can get allocated 10K units again, because more people might be applying.

Yeah,... I'll use 15K to enter too,...
Hansel
post Nov 11 2022, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Nov 11 2022, 10:02 AM)
I got alloted 10.5k for last month SSB. Total alloted was 900mil, not 800mil. Hence got 100mil increase for this coming SSB.
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Ok bro,... tq for the correction,... thumbsup.gif

I got alloted only 10K last round.
Hansel
post Nov 11 2022, 01:15 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 11 2022, 11:54 AM)
My SG friend said yesterday next round he gonna bid 3% only...

I think T-bills are no longer "investible" going forward with retail money influx. sad.gif

Ans : I already said this earlier,... now only you know-ar ???  biggrin.gif

We can tell going forward if divergence is spotted in yields between MAS bills and T-bills auctions.

Reply : I think if you compare the diff's earlier,... you wpuld have seen the trend already.

For interest rate hikes, we will need to see CPI numbers in the future. If next month the number exceeds consensus all profits now will surely be erased.

Reply : Other numbers matter too.

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I'll reply my bro here against every sentence,... biggrin.gif
Hansel
post Nov 12 2022, 01:14 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Nov 11 2022, 04:42 PM)
This is out of topic but for the benefit of those who missed the T-bill with short term idle funds.

DBS eFD : 3 month 3.5% use code SR4M

DBS eFD : 5 month 3.8% use code SR7M

Minimum SGD20,000

Applicable only on the DBS app

I have placed the 3 month 3.5% eFD myself.
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Tq bro,...

I keyed-in the codes 'SR4M' and 'SR7M', said the codes are not valid, bro,...

These codes are the promo codes under the screen called : 'Place Fixed Deposit', right ?
Hansel
post Nov 12 2022, 01:45 PM

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QUOTE(ikanbilis @ Nov 12 2022, 01:36 PM)
Did you use the web instead of the app? Another forummer also asked me the same issue. To use the promo code you have to use the dbs app.
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Firstly,.. wanna thank bros TOS and Ikanbilis here for the help,...

Yes, I used my iPhone app,... keyed-in your code just now and got the 'Not Valid' reply,... maybe becos it's Saturday today, bros ? I saw somewhere,.. can't put FDs for Saturdays and Sundays,...

Ahh,... if early withdrawal, got penalty,... then dangerous,... biggrin.gif ,... THANK YOU for the heads-up, bro TOS.....
Hansel
post Nov 12 2022, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Nov 12 2022, 02:02 PM)
I can now confirm SR4D and SR7D are the right promo codes. Can do it on desktop ibanking portal over weekend. See screenshots below.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Emm, bro TOS,... how is the penalty calculated ? Or is it a flat rate the moment we withdraw before the due date ?
Hansel
post Dec 7 2022, 06:02 PM

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Keep your money, bros,... standby for SREITs and UMS as the interest rate environment stabilizes.
Hansel
post Dec 21 2022, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(harmonics3 @ Dec 21 2022, 02:17 PM)
Got some, is it going down hill from this point onwards?  last 4.4% to current 4.28%?
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yes bro,... a few points in my mind to share :-
1) Riskfree rates are dropping everywhere.
2) This Monday, I noticed the longer-term USD FD rate (1-year) is higher than the shorter-term (6-mth) one, but this was not so last two weeks. So,.. I maxed out to 1-year tenure for my USD FD.
3) When riskfree rates start to drop,... REIT yields will have 'an easier opportunity' to maintain the spread with riskfree yields,... hence,... REITs will benefit,....
4) I visiteds Japan recently and have held-on to my JPY not spent in my MCA. Time to hold-on now,... was waiting for the BOJ to pivot,... glad to be right,.... rclxm9.gif
Hansel
post Dec 21 2022, 03:34 PM

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QUOTE(Unkerpanjang @ Dec 21 2022, 03:19 PM)
Aiyoh Bro, next month pls share your thoughts earlier...I don't mind belanja kopi-0 no sugar.
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biggrin.gif

Ok bro,... sometimes, no time to write,... must always think first before writing, otherwise if not worded properly, might confuse forummers,... Most of the time today, I just read and give 'Likes' only,...
Hansel
post Feb 28 2023, 08:09 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Feb 27 2023, 10:51 AM)
He may want to lock in medium-term rates.
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That's right.

I carry a similar opinion. SSBs are better becos :-

1) The good rate is locked-in for 10 years.

2) Can be withdrawn within a month's notice and still earned the 'designated' dividend. Who knows,... especially for this year, if Feds really pivot, need to take advanatage of this event.

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