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 Bogleheads Local Chapter [Malaysia Edisi]

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TSalexkos
post Feb 14 2022, 12:56 PM

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Bernie Madoff's episode is a good historical lesson to those funds which are too good to be true.

Charateristics of too-good-to-be-true financial instruments
1) Guaranteed return that is significantly higher than risk-free rate (FD rate)* (advertised as high return asset class)
2) Guaranteed capital (advertised as low risk asset class)

Or something like low risk, high return stuff.

Try not to over-concentrate your asset allocation around these stuff. Equity, bonds, or money market instruments alike.
KingArthurVI
post Feb 14 2022, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Feb 14 2022, 12:25 PM)
Yea true also if focus too much on US treasuries alone. Will have more risk if something bad happens to US debt (such as a default).

Will buy some AGGG. At least will get dividend semi annually even if ETF price goes down.
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Just curious, why AGGG instead of something like VAGU which is accumulating?
SUSxander83
post Feb 14 2022, 02:24 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Feb 14 2022, 12:25 PM)
Yea true also if focus too much on US treasuries alone. Will have more risk if something bad happens to US debt (such as a default).

Will buy some AGGG. At least will get dividend semi annually even if ETF price goes down.
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AGGG pays monthly dividends but if like pure bond why not BND or BNDX name sake ETF
Cubalagi
post Feb 14 2022, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ Feb 14 2022, 02:10 PM)
Just curious, why AGGG instead of something like VAGU which is accumulating?
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If u r the type who is not limited to US market, I can suggest Abfmy Singapore bond ETF listed on SGX for a safe heaven play.

It invests in SG government bonds, which is AAA rated country (higher than US). You get interests which is a bit higher than SG FD and, depending on market, can even be higher than US Treasuries. And, more importantly, there is no witholding tax.

As of yesterday, SGS 10 year yield 1.93% and US 10 year Treasuries yield 1.95%. Pretty close.







sgh
post Feb 14 2022, 03:02 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Feb 14 2022, 02:39 PM)
If u r the type who is not limited to US market, I can suggest Abfmy Singapore bond ETF listed on SGX for a safe heaven play.

It invests in SG government bonds, which is AAA rated country (higher than US). You get interests which is a bit higher than SG FD and, depending on market, can even be higher than US Treasuries. And, more importantly, there is no witholding tax.

As of yesterday, SGS 10 year yield 1.93% and US 10 year Treasuries yield 1.95%. Pretty close.
*
And to diversify further Chinese Govt bonds ICBC CSOP CGB ETF S$ (CYC) in SGX also. I know Chinese equities is hit real hard since last year 2021 but this is slightly different this is bonds issued by Chinese Govt. I know some readers in here quite anti-China and won't invest that is ok. I only know monies talk loudest. If one believe Chinese govt can default on bonds and lower rating than Spore govt can don't invest also. I am just sharing info.

While ABF SG BOND ETF (A35) is safe the latest traded price is close to like 5 years ago in 2017. For such ETF/stock I generally won't buy becuz it don't move. Imagine you bought in 2017 and DCA 5 years later the share price at 2022 is back to 2017 ? Some could argue add more just to get the half yearly dividends of cuz but I think otherwise. To me long term is the investment must overall be on the rising trend not go back down.

https://www.sgx.com/securities/products/A35
https://www.sgx.com/securities/products/CYC

This post has been edited by sgh: Feb 14 2022, 03:11 PM
Hoshiyuu
post Feb 14 2022, 03:04 PM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 14 2022, 02:24 PM)
AGGG pays monthly dividends but if like pure bond why not BND or BNDX name sake ETF
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To my knowledge, the logic of Irish-domiciled near equivalent AGGG/AGUG/AGGU or alternative IGLO is to avoid estate tax and withholding tax compared to US domiciled BND/BNDX.
Hoshiyuu
post Feb 14 2022, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Feb 14 2022, 02:39 PM)
If u r the type who is not limited to US market, I can suggest Abfmy Singapore bond ETF listed on SGX for a safe heaven play.

It invests in SG government bonds, which is AAA rated country (higher than US). You get interests which is a bit higher than SG FD and, depending on market, can even be higher than US Treasuries. And, more importantly, there is no witholding tax.

As of yesterday, SGS 10 year yield 1.93% and US 10 year Treasuries yield 1.95%. Pretty close.
*
Out of curiosity, thoughts on ABF Malaysia Bond Index Fund?

Also, which platform do you use to buy SGX stuff? Most platform I know do charge a rather hefty fee for SGX access.
sgh
post Feb 14 2022, 03:12 PM

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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ Feb 14 2022, 03:06 PM)
Out of curiosity, thoughts on ABF Malaysia Bond Index Fund?

Also, which platform do you use to buy SGX stuff? Most platform I know do charge a rather hefty fee for SGX access.
*
For SGX, HKEX I think you can try Tiger, Moomoo as I don't think IBKR is offering so good rates for non-US exchange traded ETF.
Hoshiyuu
post Feb 14 2022, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(sgh @ Feb 14 2022, 03:12 PM)
For SGX, HKEX I think you can try Tiger, Moomoo as I don't think IBKR is offering so good rates for non-US exchange traded ETF.
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Hmm, I don't like either platform for various reasons. Thanks anyway for the answer!
SUSxander83
post Feb 14 2022, 03:18 PM

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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ Feb 14 2022, 03:06 PM)
Out of curiosity, thoughts on ABF Malaysia Bond Index Fund?

Also, which platform do you use to buy SGX stuff? Most platform I know do charge a rather hefty fee for SGX access.
*
Stay away from ABF Malaysia being dragged down thanks to 1MDB doh.gif
Hoshiyuu
post Feb 14 2022, 03:20 PM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 14 2022, 03:18 PM)
Stay away from ABF Malaysia being dragged down thanks to 1MDB  doh.gif
*
Just gathering sentiments, appreciate the input! I wouldn't touch anything MYR with a 10 meter stick regardless biggrin.gif
Cubalagi
post Feb 14 2022, 03:23 PM

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QUOTE(sgh @ Feb 14 2022, 03:02 PM)

While ABF SG BOND ETF (A35) is safe the latest traded price is close to like 5 years ago in 2017. For such ETF/stock I generally won't buy becuz it don't move. Imagine you bought in 2017 and DCA 5 years later the share price at 2022 is back to 2017 ? Some could argue add more just to get the half yearly dividends of cuz but I think otherwise. To me long term is the investment must overall be on the rising trend not go back down.
Bonds (in particular govt bonds) are supposed to be that way in the long term.

It moves up only when economy goes bad. When economy improves it goes down, and then will remain roughly stable..until economy goes bad again.

This inverse relationship with equities, is the important thing when it comes to diversification. During that month in March 2020, global equities markets dropped 30%. This one was up 2% in that month. In 2008 GFC, global equities market dropped 50%.This one was up 7%.

N while u wait for these recessions, u earn the dividends, which is above FD rate.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 14 2022, 03:24 PM
Cubalagi
post Feb 14 2022, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ Feb 14 2022, 03:06 PM)
Out of curiosity, thoughts on ABF Malaysia Bond Index Fund?

Also, which platform do you use to buy SGX stuff? Most platform I know do charge a rather hefty fee for SGX access.
*
QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 14 2022, 03:18 PM)
Stay away from ABF Malaysia being dragged down thanks to 1MDB  doh.gif
*
Abfmy can be decent as well if u know the timing.

As the Malaysian economy started to slow down in 2019, Abfmy returned 8.74%. 2020 it was 7.32%. This is total return (price and dividends). Not bad at all.

I will probably avoid it for now for the time being as Malaysian economy recovers n BNM hikes. Malaysia is behind Singapore in monetary tightening. But there could be entry point next year.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Feb 14 2022, 03:35 PM
Davidtcf
post Feb 14 2022, 03:44 PM

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QUOTE(KingArthurVI @ Feb 14 2022, 02:10 PM)
Just curious, why AGGG instead of something like VAGU which is accumulating?
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I notice bond ETF prices could end up having negative growth (even when they drop it's a small % usually). So rather have some dividend in my broker account when its price drop.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 14 2022, 10:31 PM
sgh
post Feb 14 2022, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Feb 14 2022, 03:23 PM)
Bonds  (in particular govt bonds) are supposed to be that way in the long term.

It moves up only when economy goes bad. When economy improves it goes down, and then will remain roughly stable..until economy goes bad again.

This inverse relationship with equities, is the important thing when it comes to diversification. During that month in March 2020, global equities markets dropped 30%. This one was up 2% in that month. In 2008 GFC, global equities market dropped 50%.This one was up 7%.

N while u wait for these recessions, u earn the dividends, which is above FD rate.
*
Thanks for sharing. Also the reason why I am not a big fan of bond. As you pointed out, equities drop 30%, bond up only 2% ? equities drop 50% bond up only 7% ? And that is your monies will be tied up for quite a lot of years which can be used to invest to get higher returns like equities etc in good times.

In another SG forum, I have asked can the definition of "bond" be stretched further like bank FD, insurance endowment plans, CPF (Msia EPF) etc with guaranteed capital protected investment? If yes then the so called "bond allocation" need not be strictly confined to bond or bond ETF or bond mutual fund.
SUSxander83
post Feb 14 2022, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(sgh @ Feb 14 2022, 04:15 PM)
Thanks for sharing. Also the reason why I am not a big fan of bond. As you pointed out, equities drop 30%, bond up only 2% ? equities drop 50% bond up only 7% ? And that is your monies will be tied up for quite a lot of years which can be used to invest to get higher returns like equities etc in good times.

In another SG forum, I have asked can the definition of "bond" be stretched further like bank FD, insurance endowment plans, CPF (Msia EPF) etc with guaranteed capital protected investment? If yes then the so called "bond allocation" need not be strictly confined to bond or bond ETF or bond mutual fund.
*
Same at as we’ll as with you never liked bonds and I rather buy commodities stapled ETF or REITs instead of bonds as timing is important because it is difficult to get out bonds without incurring any minor losses doh.gif
Cubalagi
post Feb 14 2022, 05:09 PM

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QUOTE(sgh @ Feb 14 2022, 04:15 PM)
Thanks for sharing. Also the reason why I am not a big fan of bond. As you pointed out, equities drop 30%, bond up only 2% ? equities drop 50% bond up only 7% ? And that is your monies will be tied up for quite a lot of years which can be used to invest to get higher returns like equities etc in good times.

In another SG forum, I have asked can the definition of "bond" be stretched further like bank FD, insurance endowment plans, CPF (Msia EPF) etc with guaranteed capital protected investment? If yes then the so called "bond allocation" need not be strictly confined to bond or bond ETF or bond mutual fund.
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It's 2% because the 30% drop was fast, within a month. So it's 2% in a month

If u take a look at the whole 2020, Abfsg total return was 7.9%. quite respectable, considering it didn't give u a near heart attack in March 2020.

Compare this with the STI which still closed -13% in 2020.

Those other things u mentioned are not bonds tho. So it has different behaviors.

I'm not a Boglehead (far from it), I view my portfolio like a football team. I have defenders, midfielders n strikers. N I tend to switch formations depending on market conditions. So I don't have a fixed bond allocation like a Boglehead.




iammyself
post Feb 14 2022, 07:20 PM

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QUOTE(Hoshiyuu @ Feb 11 2022, 12:57 PM)
VWRA do hold emerging markets and European markets... And they are holding it by weight/market cap as it should be. What you are referring to is overweighting certain country such as China, which given investors sentiment that US is overvalued or due for a correction in the near future, is not a bad idea to underweight US.

But lack of a good way to buy ex-US UCITS fund means that you are either stuck with having to buy multiple other ETF, or buying some VXUS and losing out a little on dividends to withholding tax.

Personally I'm happy with just having VWRA and skip the rebalance nightmare and cost. The performance will even out overtime given my horizon.
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Well said. I stand corrected. Thanks for the well-constructed reply!
Davidtcf
post Feb 14 2022, 07:57 PM

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QUOTE(xander83 @ Feb 14 2022, 04:36 PM)
Same at as we’ll as with you never liked bonds and I rather buy commodities stapled ETF or REITs instead of bonds as timing is important because it is difficult to get out bonds without incurring any minor losses  doh.gif
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Staples ETFs and REITs right now many in the red also. We just need to hodl through this tough time.. things will get better later. Treat it as a discount to get the stocks or ETFs that you like.

This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 14 2022, 07:57 PM
Davidtcf
post Feb 14 2022, 10:29 PM

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this Reddit thread has given me an inspiration on how to utilize bonds:
https://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/co...y_bonds_at_all/

QUOTE
If you rebalance periodically, it allows you to take advantage of the markets ups and downs.

Let's say you have a portfolio that 80% stocks and 20% bonds.

The market takes a big down turn, stock values plummet. Your portfolio has now shifted to 50% stocks and 50% bonds because your stock shares lost so much value.

So it is time to rebalance. You sell off some of your bonds which gives you the money to buy stocks while they are cheap, bringing you back to 80%/20%.

Then the market takes a huge upswing. Stock values skyrocket. Your portfolio is now at 90%/10%. It is time to rebalance again. You sell off some stocks to buy bonds bringing you back to 80%/20%.

This is how you buy low and sell high.

When stocks are low and cheap, you have the money available to buy up more, when their value is high and possibly peaking, you can take some of those profits and move them to a more secure position.


QUOTE
The idea is you don't try to time the market.

You pick a time once or twice a year to rebalance and stick to those regardless of what you think the market is about to do.

You might not get the full advantage of a multiyear bull market, but you get the benefit of taking big advantage of the downswings.

I think someone much smarter than me would need to crunch the historical numbers and see which way works out better and how often.



QUOTE
You also don't have to actually sell stock positions to buy the bonds during bull runs (and miss the rest of the run with that chunk), you can just weight contributions more towards bonds to stay in balance.

It's effectively the same, I think, but psychologically appeals to never having to sell.


This post has been edited by Davidtcf: Feb 14 2022, 10:34 PM

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