QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Nov 14 2020, 09:03 PM)
If u think from last year to now.. we had Trade War, HK unrest, Covid, all scary stuff. But tech stocks are still showing quite strong performance. Look at Tencent most recent quarter.
Of course, the share prices can be volatile, and if u are a good market timer, maybe can go in and out. I tried that, but I find that just sit still and top up a bit when there are dips are probably give better results with much less work and stress.
The key things here is market structure. Tencent is monopolistic-like in their pricing, and they have huge market power (like Alibaba, they build products branching out of their "ecosystem" exactly why Grab start off with less-profitable car-hailing then venture into fintech and other high margin stuff), only competitors with the scale as large as Alibaba can challenge it.
If the PRC government insists to break up the monopoly/duopoly/oligopoly, the resulting company will still lose its market power, not unlike what happened to Rockefeller and AT&T. These days, governments give too much leniency to tech firms, added with their low-cost business model, making them rising very fast and gaining huge market share. It's only time when break-ups will happen. (Of course also depends on political lobbying).
Don't be too naive to think quarterly result looks good. In fact the more profitable the company, this will arouse more suspicion from the top-level government officials. (Remember what happened to game addiction due to the frenzy over Honor of Kings?) You never know what will happen tomorrow, more so in communist China. It's certainly not the CCP's wish to see extreme inequality in the society.
Profits don't simple arise in economics. If producing something is profitable, someone else would enter into the business and cut the margin. This is not happening in oligopolistic and monopolistic market, which is I believe what the CCP is looking at.
I certainly agree with the sit-still and top-up when drop strategy, works well for long-term investors in their early phase of their financial goal.
This post has been edited by TOS: Nov 14 2020, 11:33 PM