The bear argument is that there will be much more bankruptcies coming next year than this year. This year a lot of businesses are surviving on their reserves and hope, but by next year, reality will set in and more businesses will close shop. The vaccines, even when it come, will not come in fast enough next year to make the economy as it was before covid-19. The world will go back to a deflationary n recessionary environment. The market will finally realize this and sells off. So it will be like 1929-30 Dow, market crashed then come back up strongly then started falling again 1 year later and continued to fall for years.
This is not my base case tho.. I'm positioned more for a strong 21 recovery esp in Asia/ Emerging Market equities and commodities. But it is something to consider.
Thanks. My thinking is more like yours also.
I heard this during 2011,2013,2015 and 2018.....
2011 is the Italian and Greece debt crisis
2013 whole European debt crisis
2015 China financial system and banks collapse
2018 is another 10 years after 2008, some expert said it is coming.
The real bear was 2014 crude oil crash and this march us equity crash. It was selective and not really like affect whole market.
This is My personal pick for coming months and years, some sector will go deep bear while some sector willl benefited.
Stay away from bank stocks if one can.
Tech stock will still be leader but probably wont be as good as last few years due to very expensive and popular.
With the massive QE from central banks, commodity such as iron, soya bean, palm oil, rare material and even crude oil probably will come back as market spotlight soon.
This is just my opinion.....
Thanks. But why stay away from banks?