If that is the case, agree to disagree, different people, different strategies/tolerance.

I got out of the stock market about 2 years before the 2008 crash. Too early? 

My timing is not that perfect. But it has served my SWAN mentality. 

Now we are at the tail end of the longest cycle. I prefer to get out early before the exit will cut much deeper. 

Hello.

Yes, there are many different strategies out there but to say to just use the ones you are comfortable, isn't quite right for me. I feel one should have UNDERSTOOD the strategy first.

Now, I am not sure if youare AWARE but clearing stocks before the coming crash (wasn't this topic used to be called clearing stocks before the coming recesssion? - so I guess recession isn't quite cutting it that the TS had to change the topic name again.. ) is the strategy of selling stocks in anticipation that a future event (in this instance, market crash/or recession) is what one defines as MARKET TIMING. (Try internet search) ... or maybe use the forum thread SEARCH function at the bottom and search MARKET TIMING and you can read my comments.  This is market timing.

Cliches. Overused cliches. But then, isn't selling before the market crashes (of course if is wise to mitigate the risk, what) a cliche too?

An interesting exercise. Try search 'clearing stocks before recession lowyat forum' that on the web browser.  There is this one thread, I am preparing for Global Recession, Be cash rich. Sounds familiar? Thread was started on Sep 2011. Yup, 2011. Where are we now?

You can call it whatever you desire but this thread is a MARKET TIMING strategy. Make no doubt about it.

But end of the day, yeah, its your money too.

What's the alternative? What if we are holding stocks and a crash happens?

Firstly, I repeat again..
SO the assumption of course is we need to be trading or investing in stocks with good fundamentals. And needless to say, we cannot be simply overpaying for these stocks.

Take the last crash of 2008. So we got caught. But if one was an investor, one would have held onto these stocks, yes? And since 2008, which fundamental stock did not recover and better still, did they not actually delivered a stellar return for the investor after that crash?

Well?

Yup, know the fundamentals of the stock(s) is much more important.

Simply buying would not work in the stock market. Buying a brand name, doesn't work either. And in bull runs, some stocks can literally die. Yup, not all stocks will boom during a bull run. Some can die one.

Take the case of Transmile. Brand name. Super rich owners and well known funds. Yet the stock died cause of false accounting within the company. Or the case of Parkson. It crashed despite the local market embarking on a grand bull run.

Hello.

You should realise that I am a trader and not an investor and also, I avoid giving direct advice.

However, since I am not an investor, perhaps we can discuss sikit.

And there we go once more.

Weren't you the one insisting that Market Timing is such a cliche?

Haha.

You know. I am a trader. I know I am. I do not and never hide this fact.

Anyway, doesn't matter. I shall be polite and answer your question.

I am not concerned but I am calling out loud what this topic is. Selling out stocks assuming the market would crash is but market timing.

I am calling the white cat white.

Trader by default is timing the market; clearing stock before price dip/crash.

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As a comparison. Not saying it will be like 2008 crash. A candle light is much much better than no light in a dark cave.

Now we have the highest VIX post 2008.

Mind sharing why the USA and no Bursa? Thought there are some good growth counters in bursa (10-20% pa).

The USA counters are more than x2 better than these good bursa counters?

Must be at least 2 times better for me to switch completely out.

Or partly to gain from the US-RM currency gains?

Thanks.

A short recession is 99% certain. A 1929 depression is indeed a worse case scenario but remember that the governments and CBs  all over the world will be throwing trillions of dollars to make sure that doesn't happen.

A short recession is 2 quarters of negative GDP growth. A depression is multi year, like 1929, where it was 4 years of negative GDP growth in the US.

Time to raid companies. 

And guru Sokoloff is into gold, good news for the gold followers. Didn't know that price of physical gold can be higher than paper gold (ETF etc), like it is now. Maybe it has always been like that, I didn't know.
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Cheerio.

2 main culprit.

1. Money supply is tied to gold, hence inability to print more money when needed.

Help me once you know! Ha.

In the event of hyper inflation in the u.s, gold is not the only alternative. beside, fed is mandated to curb excessive inflation and could qt as fast as qe. hence, risks is low.

Invest in the right one, you will hit jackpot.
Gold producers are like gold derivatives due to its equity characteristics.

For eg, lets say that their profit is $100 p oz sold  and its P/E is 15 and gold price is $1000 and share price is $15

If gold goes to $1100, its profit goes up to $200 p oz sold. Suddenly share price may rise to $30 , all things being equal. 

So there is a tremendous leverage on price of gold.

Presently, its very good for producers with price of oil down at the basement as fuel costs is a very expense component of most mines.
Unless they are heavily hedged on higher oil prices! 

S O S on my query earlier on this ..

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My interpretation is, it is supposed to be an L shape with no interference, driven by normal market forces.

But now, Jedi troops stormed in and changed the L to a V. Ha. Sorry for pulling in Star Wars. 

Now, what are they pricing in to change it from L to V? They know it will recover later and just want it to recover sooner?

And Jedi = Fed? Ha.

I hope to get a clearer picture here. Bet some of you must be having the laugh of your life with my dummy interpretation above! Ha.