Why take 1970 then?
Why not take 1950, or 1930?

4.44%, I can assure FD beat it.

Don't get me wrong, I am not disagreeing on the statement posted, Both, or every data we posted is a correct, just how it is looked upon.

Pls show data on FD rates......

i take 1970 because gold price was FIXED at $35.........no price before that
so its reasonable to take it from there. 40 years is a long enougn period
for interest

FD rate was above 6-7% for quite a long time since 1980's, FD rate only plummeting after 1998 financial crisis.
FD is a compounded investment, your interest can be compounded one. So if 10 years time the FD rate is 6%, it is giving out 6% compounded rate for the last 10 years.

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Added on September 16, 2011, 6:43 pmI don't have data, if my memory serve me well, I put FD at rate around 6-7%, since late 1970's to early 1990's.

Then it is reasonable for me to use 1980's gold price as base, as I was starting investing during that time.
So no fair?

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 16 2011, 06:50 PM

No fair........best to get a baseline........1970 as you have mentioned yereslf........

when gold price was fixed at $35. Afterall we are looking at a SPECIFIC asset class

The BLR peaks during 1998 @ >12%, meaning the FD interest rate should be quite high too. You must be young to remember.

i maybe older than you.......

That peak was short and sweet.........i cleared my property investment loan that year.
Some years they go down as low as presently........2%
We are looking for the data on interest rates from 1970......do you have them?

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Added on September 16, 2011, 10:38 pmFound this table from 1980...the average from 1980 to 2009 was 6.1%....its even lower from 2010 to 2011
Showed that during interest rates peak in 1997-98, the FD rates did not follow upwards



This post has been edited by prophetjul: Sep 16 2011, 10:43 PM

Which is why you don't invest in gold. You only save in gold, using fulus to invest business to WORK for more money. Diversification is key? More like work work work to be wealthy.

Bro Singh_Kalan, our fellow forumer Prophetjul is old enough to have seen and understand at least 3 cycles and more (ie. i've only seen & understood 3 ). Methinks U made his day thinking him too young to remember 1998.
BTW, i personally remembered 12%+ FD (1yr tenure) was in the 80s leh.

Bro Prophetjul - U must be feeling good to be thought of as too young to remember 1998
This got me a good morning chuckle

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 17 2011, 08:08 AM

How old are you to only last 2 years without income? TWO years doesn't sound like a big deal to me and your projections might be wrong as well. Why?
1. What happens if hyperinflation kicks in and nobody believes in your cash anymore? Do you have commodities that other people wants in order to make a trade? If you don't, you can't even last a day.
2. Theft
3. Riots
4. etc

Don't assume 2 years if you do not have the necessary protection to protect your wealth. Say "two years if I am lucky". Still two years is quite short if you ask me.
Nothing to hide here, I can't even last 2 days as of now. D:

You're looking it at a growth point of view, investment pov. This is perfectly fine, if you're in the era of good times. Unfortunately Cherroy, I highly doubt we're anywhere near good times. It's unfortunate time coming ahead.

Gold hoarders view gold as a bargaining chip when your dollars turns to Zimbabwe money. Note I didn't say gold investors because investors usually have an exit strategy to sell off their gold for other investments that have better returns.

Also I realized some still are pretty ignorant about the housing bubble. IT IS GOING TO BUST. Malaysian bank economists have forecast it as early as 2012, I don't think it will last past 2013 because it is already out of control now. Not so certain about land banking though.

SeeD,

How long can you SURVIVE without income and WITHOUT SELLING any asset and / or investment??

Answer that question FIRST. Make sure that it is AT LEAST more than 2 years before you say it is not a big deal...

Dreamer

You being older than him has nothing to do with the previous statement "You may be too young to remember".

Just keep ego out of this.

Land banking can survive recession. As most people who buy land are using cash money (most of whom I know).

if there is a recession, what else can we invest in besides gold and silver? I have a feeling this coming recession is going to be a long one...

Bro Wong

Twas pretty high in 1997/98 as well to stave off the currency sharks.
Look at the chart i posted
i paid off my property loans that year!

i AM YOUNG!

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Added on September 17, 2011, 11:51 amOh boy.....someone whos not in the discussion making an adhominem statement

makes yer day..........

TROLL AWAY!

This post has been edited by prophetjul: Sep 17 2011, 12:02 PM

Assume one spends rm3k monthly, it mean one need rm72k to survive in 2 years. Damn. That worth my half year saving. But nevertheless, i would rather invest in low risks such as bond fund. Cash money depreciate in value due to inflation anyways.

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Added on September 17, 2011, 12:00 pmTry bond fund. Or reit also can.

This post has been edited by mois: Sep 17 2011, 12:00 PM

Hey Young Uncle Prophetjul (from a slightly younger & dumber uncle ), 1997/98 is high and 1981 was higher leh in your chart
er.. or i was not having enough caffeine in my blood yet paiseh paiseh.

=====
BTW, since "nearly" everyone and their grandpapa are into saying gold is good and stuff + some fellow posting on Genneva resurfacing, i did some Google-ing & number crunching:
Just to share here the Excel for those who are interested to "have a go at the tables" of Genneva, play with these 5 spreadsheets' YELLOW cells, especially the random +/- gold's spot price movement every 6 months.

What to do - too many "statements" but no numbers, thus i just had to scratch the itch
Please correct me if there's some mistaken assumptions in them worksheets ar tai lohs & tai chehs, especially those with the actual Genneva contracts in hand

From these worksheets (investing only once and let it ride) + the postings i read, I think a high risk taker can go in and roll the dice, hoping that Genneva will still be around for at least 5 years without changing the rules of the game, similar to "tea investments" around methinks.

Hey, Madoff investment scandal lasted umpteenth years mar (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madoff_investment_scandal)
+ his investors weren't holding them physical gold which can at least be redeemed (less 10% to 20% future spot price?), right?

Just a thought - for those gung-ho enough to consider, not for convincing suckers into this kinda schemes.

This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: Sep 17 2011, 01:49 PM


Attached File(s)
 Genneva_Gold.zip ( 676.56k ) Number of downloads: 8

Dreamer,
Please don't let your ego do all the talking.
You know 2 years is nothing to be bragging about. Not to mention in such inflationary economic times, your 2 years could be as fast as 2 months.
On the other side of the picture, if it's a deflationary recession, two years is nothing. Japan's deflationary recession lasts for a decade, giving them the "Lost Decade". I'm sorry if what I said is a little straight forward but seriously 2 years is nothing.

If you can't survive permanently without working there's nothing to be bragging about. It only shows that you're good at saving the money you earn, which could be trash in probably a decade.
Two years is a good goal, but a bad destination.

Agriculture, Guns (Invest on you and your family's safety. Not quite the legal thing in Malaysia, which I think is ridonculous) and Oil. And I want to repeat this over and over again, PHYSICAL is the keyword.

Well, RM72k is a huge sum of cash to be staying idle. If a person have that kind of money lying around in your bank account, it only shows that he's bad at investing his money (given that it is his life long savings).

so if pun in as1m ok?

I'm keeping my cash as high as I can and is waiting for the property bubble to burst for a cheaper house price..

One million? Through savings from income? In these times? Very unlikely.

Baby boomers and lottery winners can do it, not our generation.