Scalp some from Dow.
Swap a day about 1pip but volatility wise is 150pips

I predict gonna drop in a few months time.

Damn thing damn manipulative. Affected by yen, trump headlines.

Of course, a trader needs to backtesting and forward testing for their systems and follow their trading plan religiously because we play the long game here. Even you face losing streak should never change your backtested system and trading plan because, in the end, you will get your backtested result.

Entry a position is easy, the tough part is when you are in a losing trade and a winning trade, a trader should have an exit plan for both situations. A typical trader just "hope" the price will bounce back when they wrong and usually it's not gonna happen.

If you are non residence status, all income from Malaysia is subjected to max tax bracket. But if you derive this income from foreign investment and bring back this to Malaysia, zero income taxes applies. But you are liable to income taxes to the country you currently reside.

Just asking ,

how do u guys interpet COT data ?

and the daily FX option exipred data ?
thank you

COT is lagging, but also the only data you have that gives you some insight to market open interest.
COT only records until tuesday, then releases that report on friday after market close.

The thing about understanding open interest is: you need to have a good understanding of market flow.
People will use it to confirm their directional bias. But the problem is the data is too delayed. Sometimes it's useful, sometimes its not. For example, the most recent COT says that market bulls added position on EU. But the price didn't agree. But bear in mind this is almost referring to data that's 1week+ old.

I'm quite sure this week's will show that bulls reduce their position. But you must remember that this data is only until tuesday (today). With nfp and central banks making announcements this week, the whole COT is useless. This wed,thurs,fri could change everything.

COnclusion: Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. Take it with a pinch of salt to figure out what the market was doing. Requires good knowledge of how money flows.
-------
FX exipiry

Options pull is something that will always happen if there is nothing else.
Meaning... if there's no news and no agenda, but there's a big option expiry (>1bil) at a certain strike price, then price will tend to gravitate to that area.
But if there's osmething else going on, most likely due to news or some kind of fundamental data, options pull might not be strong enough to move market to that strike.

For example, recently, market has started to quiet down for this week's super busy news events.

Last week, due to a lack of market movers, the only thing people have as a target was options expiry. Therefore you will notice for example thrusday and friday last week, market move precisely to the strike price.

But again, remember that this is something that happens stronger when nothing else is going on. The pull will always be there... Just how strong or weak. At the very least, it will provide some kind of price target for people to aim for intraday.

If the options pull is agreeing with market direction, then you can reasonably expect market to reach the strike.
If the pull is opposite of market direction, you should keep in mind that the market may look for a chance to reach the options strike. Again, how likely it is depends on how much news is going on and how big the options are expiring.

This post has been edited by Emily Ratajkowski: Oct 29 2019, 08:48 AM

Thank you so much for the details explaination.
This definately help many including myself

Emily,

For fx future and fx retail.

Fx future easier to make profit ?
Fx future have lsverage 500.1 like fx retail ?

Thank you

Futures don't have that kind of leverage. You need a huge base.
The only one that can give you such high leverage is spot forex.

Currency futures is not easier or harder than spot. There are kinda the same. Maybe futures you get a little more info like open interest and accurate volume transactions... but largely they are the same thing. If you are failing in spot, you will also fail in futures.

For Paogeh... this randomly pop up today...



Futures 6E is ~60:1... $2k margin for 1 contract (EUR125k)

FX futures don't track spot as well as CFD

If your system is good... then high volatility gives the best profit... imho easy profit is probably more reliable lower volatility pairs

This post has been edited by dwRK: Oct 29 2019, 08:29 PM

another questions pop up :


we always see ppl invest in stock , eg: Warren Buffet .
Ppl use this strategy to hold as long as possible to generate wealth .
Basically , buy blue chip and collect dividen forever .
when die , passed the blue chip to next kin .
wealth being built this way .

However , we dun hear such thing in FX , or options , etc .
how come ?

In theory , FX should amplify the wealth effect like the stock do .
in reality , i cant find any.

i can think off , carry trade in FX to collect swap daily . But this strategy is dead after 2008.


is it possible to build wealth in FX similar like KLSE/stock/blue chip/divien stock?

i think i read somewhere Hansel , did carry trade or similar where he buy AUD ?


Hansel ,
u still doing that ?

Different instruments have different functions in the market. If you like to hold and collect interest I suggest you go to stocks, bonds or trade options.

Carry trades do not happen all the time. If market allows you to do a carry trade that also pays you swaps, then good for you. Else you simply have to make do with capital gains.

If you die die don't like to cut loss, or die die you must be right in the market, then forex and futures are not for you.

This post has been edited by Emily Ratajkowski: Oct 30 2019, 02:20 PM

stocks -- collect dividen , this one straight forward .
Bonds - collect bond interest till maturity , got risk of default . Worse, hold till maturity and collect back principal.
options -- Can explain more how to collect interest/swap ? The swap is juicy ?

*above 3 market , need huge capital , right ?

Stock and bonds require large capitals. They are not leveraged products.
Options doesn't require as much capital. But they are still higher than forex and futures.

There's too much to talk about options. I suggest you go pick up a book or something. But to answer your question, you can sell an option to collect interest. There's a lot of other consideration so you really need to know the details.

Life is fair...
You want safe and easy, it is expensive. (stocks, bonds)
You want cheap, you require a lot of skill and it is hard (forex, futures)
You want safe and not so expensive, you require extensive knowledge (options)

This post has been edited by Emily Ratajkowski: Oct 30 2019, 02:59 PM

Is like comparing apple to oranges. It really depends on what your goal is, how much you are trying to make and how long you are looking at.
Forex have the same wealth effect like stocks do, but in reality most can't produce the exact results because most tend to over leverage.

There are many good traders here in the forums, just many don't comment

friend lost half a million trading options when trump crashed crude from about $75 to $45. He said most of the time very easy collect premiums only... lol

nothing is without risk

wow !
of the 3 ....

what;s the best mix ?
seems options ......

but got scary story below too ::


USD500k ??!????!?!?!
RM2M ....can buy a luxurious bungalow ....

I always tell people options is the easiest to make money.
But the barrier to entry is often the highest.
You need a lot of knowledge about finance, how different instruements work with each other etc.
Even by itself, options already got so much things to learn.
But if you can learn all that, then the path of making money is slightly easier than other instruments.

oil and gas expat, earns quite a bit, knows the oil business, so trades crude related instruments lor...

options are fairly easy but need a bit of ground work. can best combine with shares so you can sell covered calls & buy puts...

I'm old & lazy, difficult to learn easy to forget...lol... but here got good material if interested... https://optionalpha.com/