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 FundSuperMart v18 (FSM) MY : Online UT Platform, UT DIY : Babystep to Investing :D

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xuzen
post Sep 2 2018, 12:39 PM

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everyone is an expert on hindsight - some gwailo saying.

if there is perfect foresight, there will not be beggar on this earth - a chinese saying
xuzen
post Sep 5 2018, 11:50 AM

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QUOTE(infested_ysy @ Sep 4 2018, 11:09 AM)
What's the most successful fund you have?

I just joined fsm about a year ago, have 3 funds, and Manulife Investment Asia-Pacific REIT Fund is the best so far. Drop in 5k and it grew by 330. Meanwhile the other two went down RM50~100 

I'm kinda tempted to put all my eggs in manulife REIT
*
TA Tech thumbup.gif thumbup.gif thumbup.gif

Also, if one were to depend on relying on benchmark tracking, then this UTF suxs compared to its benchmark.

But how can it suxs with respect to its benchmark and yet is one of the best performing UTF in FSM universe?

And the answer is:

1) Benchmarking is not the be all and end all of how good a UTF is

2) We poor Malaysians are so devoid of good exposure to US market that the best fund we have is an underperforming fund with respect to the benchmark.


Xuzen
xuzen
post Sep 8 2018, 10:47 AM

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Ngam ngam sell ES Dinasti and now all this sh1t happening...

How did I get so lucky?

Increase ES Eq Income Fund exposure and M'sia KLSE is unscathed from this EM mkt route.

Second time lucky.

3rd time lucky... well this one I don't have to do anything, just maintain holding in TA Tech and let Trump do his thrash talk.

Am I feelin' lucky or what!


Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Sep 8 2018, 10:50 AM
xuzen
post Sep 8 2018, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(MUM @ Sep 8 2018, 10:54 AM)
Algozen?  confused.gif  devil.gif
*
Attached Image

LOL!
xuzen
post Sep 11 2018, 11:23 AM

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QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Sep 8 2018, 03:32 PM)
Its you leh... Xuzen.... Manureits.....

And, you v4 how come suddenly can u turn on CN, Asia Pac.

Looks like human > machine

Thanks trump.
*
Thank you friend for taking the trouble to dig up my old post. Reading it again put my thoughts in perspective.

In Feb 2018, trade war was on the distant horizon. China PER is at single digit and it was attractive given its fundamentals. I thought that the benefit outweigh the risk or in another word, I bet that the trade war is more a rhetoric ( saber rattling ) than actuality.

Come today, trade war has escalated, investors are spooked and there is this flight to safety triggered.

For me, I too took to safety, sold my Dinasti and went to REITS for some R&R to fight again some other day.

Xuzen

p/s China and Asia - Pac is inherently linked. China is the biggest customer of Asia-Pac region. When China sneezes, Asia-Pac will catch a cold.


xuzen
post Sep 27 2018, 04:11 PM

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» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


The above is a question asked of me in my PM, and instead of answering him or her alone, I might as well share my thoughts on this matter.

Here goes:


If you have seen my latest Algozen™ ver four reading, you'll notice I have gone defensive, with 20% US, 25% M'sia Large Cap, 25% REITs and 30% MYR denominated Corp Bonds.

Now on what the stock market will be like, here are my train of thoughts.

PMI is a measuring index for factory productivity. A reading above 50 means that there is expansionary activities in factory production. So far the readings are all above 50 in US, China, Europe & Malaysia. So with all these trade war going on, why are factories still experiencing a increase in order and production? This is a classical case of FEAR & GREED overriding RATIONAL thoughts. I got this info from Phillip's in house analyst report.

However do note that the reading of PMI have generally dropped slightly compared to previous month. This means although there is expansion, it could be heading to a plateau, but definitely is not coming down.

The non-farm payroll in US has increased. And the job or unemployment in the US is at all time low. This means, people have jobs, lots of it... and when people have jobs, it means they have money to spend. When they have money to spend, inflation increases. When inflation increases, the central bank must increase interest rate to balance it, this is classic textbook finance theory 101.

In the US, employment is great, people have money to spend, Trump administration has reduce corporate tax which means most company will post greater profit before tax... hey, things are great there. Why would smart money expose to risk in emerging market when US is offering such good deal? Now you see a clearer picture why emerging market is experiencing a sell down recently.


Back to the question if everything is great why Algozen™ ver four goes defensive? It is because of how algozen is written. It dislike volatility and punishes volatility. Although the underlying fundamentals are great, the market is volatile and she naturally will favour a defensive position foregoing potential high return.

For those who is asking me what region I favour, don't have to ask me this question again coz' the answer is exactly how I position my portfolio. In other words, I put my money where my mouth is.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Sep 28 2018, 11:33 AM

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QUOTE(voyage23 @ Sep 27 2018, 10:21 PM)
Good to see you posting some of your thoughts again with some economic theory and not emotional rantings that we have been seeing of late. Just some questions:

1) What do you think of Malaysian Small Cap? Surely valuation wise it is rather attractive?
2) REITS are not expected to perform in an environment of interest rate hike (US, HK) etc.. Still maintaining the same allocation?
*
Answer to Q1: Small cap usually will rebound long after the Big Cap run. Right now is big cap turn first. You can buy if you think small cap is cheap, but how long have to wait for it to rebound, that is difficult to time. So, instead of buying and waiting, buy big cap and ride the momentum first. When it is small cap time to shine, then switch over. I recall I made some money from ES Small Cap from 2015 to 2016. It was a good two or three years for small cap at that time... double digit annual CAGR.

Answer to Q2: There is a definitely a risk. Will monitor. I will reassess my port in Jan 2019. Right now, I choose REITs for its lower volatility. It is a conscious decision to stay away from other more choppy market for the time being.

QUOTE(wankongyew @ Sep 28 2018, 09:36 AM)
Basically mostly Malaysia plus a little bit of US, that's all? That's unusual.
*
What is so unusual? I have been an advocate of Non-Pokemon playing style all this long.


Xuzen
xuzen
post Sep 29 2018, 09:58 AM

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QUOTE(AvenueX @ Sep 29 2018, 12:54 AM)
Whats in it for them If 0%?  blink.gif
*

from trailer fee aka management fee splitting. Remember the 1.5% management fee that is levied by the fund houses to the unit-holder? Well, they split 0.25% to 0.4%. If popular fund, then is 0.25%, if unpopular fund where they need to "push" the AUM, then perhaps they may give 0.4%.

Xuzen.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Sep 29 2018, 10:03 AM
xuzen
post Oct 3 2018, 10:28 AM

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Last month port has nothing much to report except that the port was very flat, as flat as the KLIA runway flat.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Oct 4 2018, 11:13 AM

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it is in such times such as these that bond outshine equities.
xuzen
post Oct 11 2018, 09:48 PM

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Looks like a good time to buy for me.

I will deploy some fund from bond to equities next week. Will keep you all posted.

Will consult my good friend Algozen™ ver four this weekend.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Oct 12 2018, 11:16 AM

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Market drop drop drop... ada naik, mesti ada turun. Just like ocean tide, if there is no high tide and low tide, a lot of natural things in this world cannot jalan liao.

Dear Padawan, be unmoving like the mountain.

BTW, if you see our beloved TA tech drop 25% suddenly, don't panic, don't jump from top of Komtar tower ok? It is just a 4:1 unit split nia... stay calm and continue to DCA.

And ...

I did a quick look at the data, the fundamental does not change. This is all emotional thingy.

I will deploy my FI protion into the same percentage, that is to say, to make my portfolio have:

I) TA Tech @ 20%

II) M'sia Large Cap @ 25%

III) Selina Reits @ 25%

IV) Asnita bond @ 30%.

I am sure my Asnita bond % would have increase due to these few day's equities rout. Time to " sell high, buy cheap" ....

Xuzen

P/s I will never know when is the cheapest, but I know now is cheaper than previously. Some called this averaging down.
xuzen
post Oct 13 2018, 09:55 AM

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Aduhai sakitnya hatiku.

Nampak merah - merah sini sana... muntah darah!

Should have listen to my brain and should not have log in to peek.

Now, no mood liao. Must marah someone at office dei to vent my frust.

Xuzen

p/s Opps forget today is Sat, tunggu Isnin baru cari itu budak dispatch marah sama dia kaw-kaw....

This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 13 2018, 09:56 AM
xuzen
post Oct 18 2018, 02:49 PM

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To time the market or not in Unit Trust Investing.

This is the question that is commonly asked by noobs and veterans alike.

My stand is don't time, do DCA.

What I said above does not mean to say that timing market is bad, it is just in UTF investing, timing it is bad.

Below are my explanations:
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Thank you for your attention.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 18 2018, 02:53 PM
xuzen
post Oct 19 2018, 10:47 AM

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Let me tell you all a story:

Near my workplace, is a BMW showroom. I know of an uncle who always go look see look see take brochure, tok-kok with those pwetty ah mois salesgirl there regularly.


When asked bila mau beli sebiji Beemers, he will give tonnes of excuses but mainly he will say will let the price come down a bit first.

Then when no GST / no SST time come, he also says see first. He is not in hurry to buy.


Now SST come in liao, he says price is expensive... will still see first.


Sounds familiar?

p/s : That Uncle is definitely not me, OK!


Xuzen
xuzen
post Oct 19 2018, 03:07 PM

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QUOTE(ssajnani @ Oct 19 2018, 01:04 PM)
Sit not seat.
*

One is a verb, the other is a noun. How can one not tell the difference?

Xuzen

p/s : Thanks guys / gals for turning the thread into a /k style thread.


This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 19 2018, 03:08 PM
xuzen
post Oct 20 2018, 02:43 PM

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Poor poor Kambing biri-biri jed,

Kena bertubi-tubi and yet come back to answer all questions thrown at him. You've got grit, kid, I'll give you that.

Why do you find his method strange and yet he find it not strange?

In my mind, I think he is applying a strategy that is correct in income / dividend investing to Unit Trust Fund which I have explained earlier, should use a different strategy.

I shall not repeat about UTF strategy today, but instead, let me talk about income investing strategy and you'll see Ramjade's perspective clearer.

Income investing is always looking at yield. It can be dividend received from stocks ( dividend yield ), rent receivable ( property ) or coupon receivable ( bonds ). And from this, you can understand why Ramjade keep on harping on lowering price of the said equity or asset. He is, rightly or wrongly, or delusional thinking if the dividend is constant, then buying at lower price of the asset will surely give me higher yield.


For bond, where the coupon payment is fixed, a lowering of bond price will get you a better yield. But then, you hardly see bond price move. Bond price moves in range of basis points or bips. 1 bips = 0.01%. If you are a retail investor, a few bips movement will not make you excited anyway.

For equity, where the dividend declared is not fixed, a lowering of stock price may or may not give you a better yield. Let's take TNB. If it gives you a yield of 4.XX% and the price has been battered down, then it makes sense to buy more of it assuming that in future the business modal of TNB is not affected by the economic climate. That is why in Ramjade's mind, he is always thinking of getting lower and lower and lower stock price. What if, the price is battered down due to a possibility that TNB cannot sustain the same dividend payout in the future? Will you then buy even the price is trending lower? Hence, always looking for higher yield by wishing a lower price is anchored on the assumption that the dividend payout remains the same or higher.

For property / REITs included, the same concept applies.

But poor Ramjade has forgotten, UTF is not stock per se. Strategy employed is different. That is why he kena flacked all over here because he is like trying to sell Arsenal jersey to Man-U fans at Old Traford.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 20 2018, 02:59 PM
xuzen
post Oct 26 2018, 11:10 AM

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I have not looked at my port for a whole month.

I feel happier and not so depressing.

Play more sports ( tennis ). Healthy body = healthy mind

Xuzen
xuzen
post Oct 27 2018, 11:52 AM

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Tangan gatal - gatal.

masuk US & Selina Reits satu ribu each.

There goes my kids' lunch money. They have to eat maggi - mee and roti kiap telur for the next one month liao.

p/s I do what I preach, that is to say, DCA in perlahan-lahan. Some will just wait and wait then hantam kow-kow. Some will wait and wait and wait and wait somemore, after two or three years still waiting saying market not discount enough lar, bloodbath not bloody enough lar...


Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 27 2018, 11:53 AM
xuzen
post Nov 1 2018, 02:44 PM

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My port as of 1/11/2018:

Last month [ Oct 2018 ] is now the worse performing month in the whole duration of my port's tracking, that is, 28 months of tracking.

The port gave a negative 5.XX% M-o-M return. This is the worse performing month ever recorded.

Xuzen

p/s F*CK TRUMP! ranting.gif

This post has been edited by xuzen: Nov 1 2018, 02:46 PM
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