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This post has been edited by xuzen: Jul 22 2018, 12:28 PM

My previous style was to write cheong - hei article but now I think I may be suffering from writer's block hence no cheong - hei article.


My latest Algozen™ ver four reading is prompting me to skew my exposure to less risky assets such as RHB Income fund (Asia - pac balanced fund ) , Selina Reits (Asia-pac reits), ES Equity Income (M'sia large cap) and Asnita bond ( M'sia corporate bond). I am abandoning China fund for the time being. Until trade war is resolved, I'll sit out this war that benefit no one except some ego of a megalomaniac named Trump.


Will review again in Jan 2019 or until some firm decision on this trade war.


Xuzen

In the month of July 2018, it was a good month for my port. The biggest contributor would be TA Tech ( Mainly US exposed ) & Eastspring Equity Income ( KLCI large cap )

My port made a gain of 2% M-o-M.

Having said that at the end of the month, I took profit by switching the excess into more defensive UTF such as AmReits, Affin-Hwang Asia-Pac ( x-Jp ) Dividend fund. Mainly I am going into AmReits for its relative low volatility. I exited all from Eastspring Dinasti. I do not want to expose to such high volatile UTF. Until that crazy Trump and China sort out their trade issue, I'll stay away from this nonsense.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 3 2018, 03:01 PM

Gua fikir lama - lama , fikir baik - kaik , tulis rencana yang cheong - hei ... yang bagus punye.

Then, in come a few noobies and post one liner post that is repeating ad nauseum questions such as:,

1) which fund to buy?

2) Now can enter ah?

3) Eh, market down wor... can sell or not?

Etc

Etc...

And my cheong - hei article get lost in the whole mess of things.

Sigh... that is why these days I just prefer to be a lurker.

Xuzen

Friend,

Thank you for putting faith in my crystal baloneylogy.

This round until Jan 2019, I am on a " cautiously optimistic with expected volatility " theme for my port.

Hence with the above in mind, I will put my money into Income'ish type UTF.

1) TA Tech for alpha generation. Although not a income fund, but this UTF is still the best in my port so far. She is a keeper. ( 20% )

2) Eastspring Equity Income. This is a KLCI Large Cap Dividend'ish exposed UTF. ( 25% ).

3) AMReits - Dividend UTF. For those who want something better than bond, but no bola to take on greater risk.


4) Asnita - 30%. Local corporate bond for the stability. Just like dating the girl next door. Safe and sound.


As you can see I am on a cautiously optimistic with expected volatility theme and my selected UTF reflect my risk. This UTF will stay in my port until my next review in Jan 2019.

Xuzen

p/s No pokemon style " Gotta catch em' all ".

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 11 2018, 12:26 PM

Cakap tak serupa bikin.

I have been holding TA tech for the past two or three years. I am happy with this UTF.

In my personal port, right now I keep skimming profit from it and put it to M'sia KLCI exposed UTF [ some people use the term " rebalancing " ]


Yes, yes ! I agree with your statement. How perseptive of you.


US NASDEQ naik as well as USD naik makes TA Tech an Ultimate UTF on 'roid.


Xuzen

Classic case of treating UTF as though is stock - market....


Xuzen

Sep 18 looks promising for my port... Go go go!

Green green green.

Xuzen

sorry sorry, paiseh paiseh.

It is a typo. Should be August instead of September.

Also, let me take this opportunity to state that currently my port has reached the desired eq to fi ratio of 70 to 30.

My non pokenon port consist of the following members:

1) TA Tech 20%

2) Eastspring Equity Income 25%

3) Selina reits at 25%

4) Anita Bond 30%

This, according to my good friend Algozen™ ver four, sits at an optimal risk to reward ratio point, only consisting of four members, unlike some professional managed account, play Pokemon style here and there.

p/s I play retail only UTF that are available in FSM universe. I am purely a retail investor who does not have access to any kind of " wholesale " fund whatsoever.

Xuzen

Selina reits

It may seem conservative but that is where the best risk optimized return portfolio lies at the moment.

This ties in well because you will notice for the past three quarters the market has been very volatile and Algozen™ ver four is written to penalize high volatility.

Xuzen

You confuse me with that Kiamsiap Singaporean wannabee...

You confuse me with that Kiamsiap Singaporean wannabee...

There is no transactional cost for my port because I use wrap account.

I will stay with this port fomposition until Jan 2019. Algozen™ ver four will tell me plus I have been using UTF since 2005 as a wealth management tool, I have a certain flair, a certain je ne sais quoi so to speak.

TA tech has been my alpha for a long long time. I think I have it in my port composition since 2015. It has brought me joy and happiness. TA Tech is not that volatile lah! Try China fund for comparison and see...

I think above six UTFs is considered Pokemon style already.

Pokemon style = dilute your alpha. You earn peanuts here and there... no syiok factor.

Xuzen

Yes, you are right. I proudly declare I am a follower of Markowitz's Modern Portfolio Theory.

Algozen™ ver four did not lose money vis-a-vis FSM Managed portfolio. Admitedly the return has been lacklustre but at least she did not lose money. The case is different with FSM managed portfolio given the grievences laid bare by the participants here.

And why it is so darn difficult to make money for the past 3 quarters? Trump lah... he is a pariah leader, one day talk like this, the next day can go 180 degrees U-turn without thinking of consequences. He thinks the world revolves around him. He has the ego the size of Jupiter.

You have the data from morningstar. But what you are missing is the algorthm to assist you make the decision. What you have is just raw data. You cannot use raw data without an algorithm to make the data useful.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 26 2018, 11:11 AM

There are about 250 UTFs in the FSM universe. My first step is to select the top ten most desirable UTFs and this is based on what I read and understand from various media sources including reports from the various Fund Houses. This is the part which is subjective and is solely based on my biased opinion and personal gut feel. This part takes a certain je ne sais quoi.

Out of these ten short-listed candidate I will throw them into Algozen™ ver four and let her do the computation. Then I will use her to churn out various scenario & outcome. This is the analytical part. Pure computational work. Too tedious for human to do it, only a computer can do it.

Then of the many outcomes that are churned out, I will select the outcome that in my opinion, which I am most comfortable with. Again, this is based on personal experience. So, if let say I choose outcome A, and suddenly the world changes with some new info that will move the market wildly, I will already have in my library outcome B, C, D... so forth and I can quickly change my port accordingly. That is why I rarely lose money. Lackluster ROI yes, lose money no, except in this 2018... in the 12 preceding month of tracking, my port made 5 months of lost and that is a record for my port. Prior to 2018, I rarely lose money. But prior to this, we do not have a mad Trump to disturb the market. But nonetheless, the port as a whole made money 12 mths preceding.


China centric and emerging market is very reactive to what Trump say. It is too volatile and hence I discard it for the time being until Trump gets booted out or the market decide to ignore Trump tantrum.

Surprisingly ES Eq Income is very uncorrelated to the other UTF in my port and hence that is why it is there.

On Reits, it is something I have to be more concern with, thank you friend Yklooi for highlighting it.


This calculation of risk is not correct. The proper way is


Now try to do the above manual calculation with ten risky assets. Thank god there is Algozen™ ver four.

BTW, my port risk aka Std-Dev is 4.XX which is lower than that of FSM's balanced fund definition.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 27 2018, 12:27 PM

Inter-Pac LOL!

Aug 2018 has been a month for my port.

because none of you UTFs are Algozen™ ver. four approved

Algozen™ ver four Aug 2018 result is tallied and in.


M-o-M ROI is +ve 1%


12 mths preceding ROI is around one year Maybank boardrate [ i.e. not promo rate ] FD rate. Nothing to shout about, but better than some professionally managed port giving negative return. Out of the 12 mths of tracking, 5 mths made losses, most acute in the Q1 of 2018.

12 mths preceding Std - dev [ an industry standard measurement of risk or volatility ] is 16.10%. Very high. I took on a lot of risk last one year to get that miniscule return. The past one year was a suxs year for capital market no thanks to Tantrum Trump.

Long term std - dev measurement is 12.29% [ 25 mths of tracking ]. This imply that the last one year has been more volatile than the previous.


All I can say was last one year was not easy to make money. Not losing money is win liao.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Sep 1 2018, 12:09 PM