Discount discount discount!

Sale! Sale! sale!

Tambah'ed another one-k into Dinasti.

Xuzen

p/s This month already two-k into Dinasti. East maggi mee also don't care, discount mah! Must BUY!



This post has been edited by xuzen: Mar 31 2018, 11:37 AM

one gives you joy & happiness in 2H - Yr18,

the other one gives you greater joy & happiness in 2H - Yr18.

Xuzen

shakehead😱

Another shitty month.

Since Jan until now, my port is in red.

Last month, that is, March 2018 is the worse month ever in my 24 months of tracking my port.

My port made a five digit loss. Percentage wise is 3%.

Pasal PRS nih....

Cuma tigo ribu je setahun... nih pon nak over-analyse pulak.

Tiga ribu nih, cuma nak ambil tax relief jeh.

Apa yang susah susah nak over analyse pulak?

Takde kerjo lain kah?

KWSP gasak!

PRS pon gasak!

Ah Jib Gor, apa lagi lu mau kasi? Gua mau beli....

Xuzen

So much noises abound, making all and sundry "takut & kecut". It is like the thunder from the distance, all noise but no lightning.

So, I met up with my Lic Fin Planner over the weekend because he is back in town to perform his " ching
- ming " duty. Ching - Ming = annual visiting ancestral grave aka tomb sweeping or tomb cleaning ritual.

Over kopi ping kaw - kaw extra kurang manis at our local kopitiam, he share with me his recent firms' view. He told me he just attended his firms quarterly briefing and below is his house views:

1) US & China
Both are at this moment sabre rattling. It is like two children playing dare with each other. Trump is for show coz he has to show to his supporters he is doing something for them. But, it is of no use because a real trade war will not benefit either country. China is also responding for show, to show to the world they are no push over. It is like the Chinese is telling US, you wanna play ball with me? Let's play ball together, we put up a good show for the world.

3) Perception aside, the economic numbers coming out from both countries are very positive. Economic numbers here refers to PMI, Inflation rate, Unemployment rate, Consumer Confidence Index etc. With positive economic indicators, the fundamentals are very rosy if not for the noises. Once the noises died down, and logic and rational mind take over, the savvy investors will start to see value.

4) European numbers are also start to show sign of recovery. The house view is overweigh on this geo region.

5) Malaysia = neutral call. The numbers are going south with PMI below 50, Consumer Confidence Index is dropping, but with election coming, there could be an opportunity for election themed play in the near future.

6) India and Indonesia is expensive. When I said India and Indonesia, I am specifically referring to the fwd PER of SENSEX and JCI.

Stay cool, stay invested.

US naik!
Cina naik!
Malehsia pon naik!

Jib Pai Hoh Seh Liao



This post has been edited by xuzen: Apr 14 2018, 12:46 PM

I wish to add to this complete this quote, " ... and the best time to sell is when you need the money. "

Xuzen

2016 China stock market circuit breaker fiasco took about five months, that is, from early Jan to mid May 2016 to recover. Thereafter from Mid May 2016 to Jan 2018, we had 18 months of super bull!

There were some of us who laughed our way to the bank back then...

Xuzen

My port in April 2018 registered a flat result, that is, no loss and no gain. This is better than the previous three months where during the preceding three months registered a continuous loss.

So far, my 12 months gain have been wiped out by the last quarter lost.

Xuzen

2015 waiting,

2016 waiting,

2017 waiting,

2018 still waiting and waiting and waiting ....

those of us who have been here long knows.

all theory!

This post has been edited by xuzen: May 4 2018, 03:37 PM

I walked the talk and stayed away from my portfolio and LYF for about a month. I knew in my heart, it is a global thing and there is nothing much an investor can do, except to sell all and keep all in FD or Money market fund. But, hey! Where is the fun in that?


Wow! What a ride... ever since the mad-hatter POTUS came into power, it has been a roller-coaster ride. And don't forget the result of PRU-14,which is a black swan event and it happened right in front of our doorstep... and we get a first class podium seat to witness history in the making! Yippee Kayeh !


OK, let's talk about my port. To my very own surprise, as I log into my portfolio yesterday, it showed a large gain actually. I am sooooo surprise. It was negative since Jan 2018. Feb and Mar 2018 was largely a very depressing month for my port. In April 2018, the port had a flat, almost zero gain. In that sense, April 2018 seem like the point of inflection.


In May 2018, my port made a 1.2% gain M-o-M. The major darling are my TA tech [ US ] and Dinasti [ China ]. Despite all the noises, these two powerhouse still made some gain. This shows how irrational the market has become.

Losers are the M'sia UTF, which is understandable due to the black swan event that occurred recently. I also put some money in Manureits which is rather flatish and CIMB-ASEAN which turned south. But US & China combined did most of the heavy-lifting for port to give it a big boost.


Some technical data:

1) M-o-M ROI is 1.2%

2) 12 mths historical ROI = less than 1%. My Last one quarter loss wiped out my one year gain.

3) 12 mths historical Std-Dev = 1.2%. Yah yah... I know my port is not efficient.

4) long term skewness value [ 24 mths plot ] is negative. Meaning there is a higher tendency or probability to skew towards the mean.

5) long term kurtosis value [ 24 mths plot ] showed signs of a fat tail [ Kurt > 3 ]. This is to say that my port has significant extreme outliers and is prone to its effect thereof.


Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jun 2 2018, 01:35 PM

Yah, I am surprise too...

The contributor to my port is TA Tech and Dinasti.

I truly believe and advise please switch log off your FSM port and don't look at it for a month, because when you see it everyday, you get lots of heartache and anxiety because the market is very volatile these days.

Come back in a month or two. You'll feel much better and maybe get a pleasant surprise, like what happen to my port.

Xuzen

Seeing and feeling how irrational the market has become since early of this year, I have decided to skip one quarter from gazing into my crystal ball.

Will do it after 2H, most likely somewhere mid - July 2018.

NB: Actually I feel rather good by not looking at my port for this one month. I even did not look at Bloomberg or finance related media. I completely switched off and do some other things. Went closer to god and tried reading theological material for a change. I feel better, more serene and calm and generally a better person as an outcome.

During the 2017 I LCLY you,

1H2018, you LCLY me back..


Such is life, such is life...


Suxs...

Worse than Algozen™ ver four.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jun 15 2018, 03:00 PM

Pokémon style....

The previous gomen? Lol Lol Lol.... let's see how much longer the magic show can continue.

I see this see-saw up down volatility in the market and I attribute it to one person, namely the current sitting POTUS: Mr D. Trump.

Everytime he opens his mouth, the market reacts. And I am sure he knows that very well.

We all know that he is extremely rich.

Now, suppose he knows that very well, and suppose he purposely open his mouth, says so SH1T and the market goes down.

What is going to stop him from grabbing those oversold equities with his vast horde of cash?

Then later he goes and says something positive, the market reacts again.

What then, is going to stop him from selling those equities that he got cheap?

You see the trend? The morale hazard?

If you notice, he has a trend of saying some SH1T against China or NK, then make up with China and NK and the cycle repeats ad infinitum.

Is it just me, or anyone else notice a trend?

Xuzen


NB: If I am in his position, with the authority and cash at my disposal, why not do it? What is going to stop me from doing this? That is the question I am asking myself.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jun 25 2018, 11:06 AM

next algozen™ ver. 4 reading end of this month. I purposely skipped one reading in quarter two because of the irrationality of the market.