He is waiting for the big one. When some alien from a galaxy far far away comes to invade earth, then he will
invest....

Wow! What a coincidence... I exited all my India exposure during early Aug 2017.

Do I have a crystal ball or not?

I was with India for about a year and made a high teen ROI for this UTF.

Cabut'ed when risk and reward no longer deem favourable.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Sep 28 2017, 11:16 AM

I hold the same UTF in my port since my last Algozen™ ver four revision which is about two months ago. No change to my composition.

That is:

1) TA Tech @ 30%
2) Manureits @ 10%
3) IDS @ 15%
4) Esther bond @ 25%
5) RHB EMB @ 20%

(No Pokemon Go style)

BTW I will be doing another Algozen™ ver four port run in Dec 2017 if there is no major news. As of this moment, looking at the composition, no major movement needed.

Walkman660,

My India IRR is meaningless as I held the UTF for about a year only. Hence ROI is more applicable which is around 19.XX% from my memory.

Xuzen

Port in Sep 2017 was forgettable.

Performance was as flat as KLIA's runway.

Continue to DCA into TA Tech & IDS.

Others already achieved desire holding %.

Xuzen

p/s Will tinker with Algozen™ ver four sometime in Dec 2017 or earlier if got major market mover news. If not, will stay with the same port until Dec 2017.



This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 2 2017, 12:47 PM

T 1 U

N 1 4 M 4 H !!!

Did a some tweaking with Algozen™ ver four recently.

Here are some salient points:

1) She is now in favour of Greater China and I used eastspring dinasti as the proxy for greater china exposure. If you like CIMB Greater China pun boleh jugak. 10% max exposure.

2) India is still a no - go. Zero exposure.

3) KGF versus IDS? Siapa menang? IDS menang @ max allocation = 15%

4) Reduce bond in favour of equities. What does this means? My personal interpretation is that you want higher return, you just have to take accept the risk... the days of easy return with little risk is not there anymore. Initially my bond was at 40%, now I am reducing to 30%. Where does the 10% go to? To the reits.

5) I am increasing my exposure to Manureits. Why? I believe the Algozen™ ver four is telling me, reits is the new bond. Of course it is not as stable as bond, but remember this, she has to balance between stability and return. Hence reits is a good balance between the two. Manureits = will increase exposure to 25% from previously 15%.

6) TA Tech is still my alpha - maker. Was at 30%, now reduce to 20%. Where will the 10% go? It will go to Greater China.

7) Europe = still no buy signal!

8) Ponzi 1? Not under Algozen™ ver four radar. Risk to reward ratio does not reach threshold benchmark.

9) Ponzi 2? No corr-coeff data available from Morningstar. Missing data = unable to perform calculation, hence will omit this UTF from port consideration.

Xuzen

P/s to the newbies, the above is an extension to my previous crystal - ball reading. If you feel lost and blur - blur about it, it is normal. Ask specific questions and I will try my best to answer you with specific answers. Broad general questions, I try to avoid coz' wasting time.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 5 2017, 03:11 PM

I did include RHB AIF in my simulation..... no buy signal. Previously, no buy signal; currently also no buy signal.

Lai, lai, you come teach me....

Xuzen

Oppsie!

Malu, Malu, paiseh, paiseh....

Actually got corr-coeff value. It seems I chosed the wrong fund name as mentioned above,

I blame CIMB - Principle... kasi nama all so similar.

Xuzen.

P/s Having said the above, I will not include Ponzi 2 because for it similar geographical exposure, I see that Manulife Pacific Income or CIMB Asia - Pac Islamic Equity has better risk to reward ratio. In my recent Algozen™ ver four reading, I used RHB AIF as the proxy for Asia - Pac exposure.

Image below shows that all the corr - coeff of these similar geo region funds are very high. Meaning they are very correlated. If they are higly correlated, then it is wise to choose the one which gives the best risk to reward ratio, which I will say Manureits is the best among peers.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 6 2017, 10:30 AM


Attached thumbnail(s)

Portfolio UP UP UP

After a lull in Sep, port came back with a vengeance.

UTF Participants, Happy or not?

FSM spy / staff YKlooi,

As usual is working overtime to answer all your queries. He is working hard and not hardly working as usual...

Dear Sistah,

The key operative word is " IF "

You feelin' lucky?

Xuzen

Ah! Fellow investors... happy with your IRR so far eh? Or not happy?

I see now that you all are familiar with the concept of IRR, let's introduce something a little bit more advance. No more kindergarten stuff, we move on to Primary Level School syllabus.

You see, all our observed points or NAV are just plots on a time (X - axis) versus ROI (Y-axis) graph. Given enough plots on the graph, you will get a distribution graph plot. Given large number of observations or plots and you normally get a Gaussian ( yes, a gwailo / mat-salleh created this and now is named after him) distribution or Normal Distributed graph. That is a bell shape graph with symmetrical tail at both ends.

However, this is not the case in real life, as sometimes the graph are not symmetrical or imperfect ( as in many things in life). Hence I introduce the concept of skewness and kurtosis to expain these imperfection.

A skewed graph can be +ve skew (tendency for the plots to concentrate to the right of the graph) or -ve skew, which the plots are concentrated on the left of the graph. For an typical investor, they would welcome Positive skewness as it means the return are mostly positive and not negative.

Kurtosis is measure of how fat the end tails are. The higher the kurtosis value, the fatter the end tails which means there are more extreme outliers in the outcome. In layman terms, this means your results are more scattered here and there. In general terms, a high kurtosis is not welcomed.

Over the weekend I did some tweking with my results and I found the following,

My own port is positively skewed to the rght side, which means I have more positive outcome than negative ones.

My port kurtosis is positive, which means my outcomes (ROI) are quite scatter. This is something I need to improve on.

I went further and did a regression analysis on my port and what did I find? I found that my port is not linear but exponential. This is not surprising as mainly due to the compounding effect.


So, there you go... some advance stuff for your weekend contemplative pleasure.

Xuzen

P/s With excel finding Kurtosis and Skewness is easy. In the F(x) icon, clicked on it the type "Skew or Kurt" then select your data input ( in this case, that would be your ROI )

Rgeression is a bit tricky, go to you tube and type how to do regression on excel and be self educate.


This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 15 2017, 09:49 AM

He is feelin' lucky!

Xuzen

You sure your itchy hand tahan the gatal meh?

Xuzen

Don't think so...

Even DIY investor don't care about Port Turnover ratio. Apa lagi about Port Std-Dev.

Xuzen

I too am not a fan of property investment for almost the same reason as stated by j.passing.by.

I am surprise so much of our thoughts are similar, be it regarding property and UTF participation.

I have heard from those proponents of property flippers, it is so easy to make money. I put a downpayment of RM 50K for a 500K condo. 10:1 financing during the good times. Six months later I sell for RM 550K, I made 50K profit = 100% ROI. Beat that yo!

Only problem is they have forgotten that they are playing with margin, and margin is a double edge sword, it can cuts both ways.

During the reverse, the price of collateral drops more than the loan, just like the US sub-prime. Guess what happens when you cannot pay the monthly repayment and your collateral is worth less than the loan....

Everything goes KA-BOOM!

Let me quote Mark Seller (a famous Hedge fund manager) - Take care of the downside risk and let the upside take care of itself. If I may elaborate further, many a times, the upside follows a trend, and when the trend is there, whatever you touch will just make profit. It is the downside that we need to watch out for.

That is why you see I write a lot focusing on risk and its measurement such as std-dev, semi-deviation, corr-coeff etc. I am sold on his idea from the very beginning.

Xuzen

P/s BTW tHis month's port is going very strongly (upside). TA Tech is my alpha - maker (again). Watch out for IDS, with bajet 2018 coming and analyst are saying that it will be a vote buying people - friendly, she might just get some tender loving moments soon... As of now, I am seeing some movements already.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 16 2017, 10:49 PM

On the matter of compounding magic, here is a " kisah benar "

My spouse and I each made a yearly contribution to SSPN for our kid. The kid is now in the early teens and recently I view the SSPN account and by gosh, the amount has grown enough to buy a full spec Honda Jazz. I am not talking about just the downpayment, I am talking about a full cash settlement of a full spec Honda Jazz.

The thing is, both of us do not put any extra; just the bare minimum amount allowed to maximise the tax relief. That is only the face value, not forgetting to say the tax savings we both enjoyed over the years.

Xuzen

P/s We both started the SSPN program since the year the kid was born and did not miss a single year.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 17 2017, 06:36 PM

No love lost for Selina, took and embraced a new beau.... *cough* Manureits *cough*... Ramjade wink wink.



That is why my port is better than yours .... My daddy is better than your daddy!

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Oct 19 2017, 11:21 AM

While waiting for them to correct their mistake

Let's ride other horsey and gallop all the way to the sunset.

They can slowly correct their mistake....