QUOTE(xuzen @ May 12 2017, 02:46 PM)
I want to specifically answer your query that has been bolded. Noobies, this is advance class material , not kindergarten syllabus , if this is too complex for you, look away and go play at the sandbox .
Let us take the Malaysian big sweep as an example. There are seven digits starting from 000 ' 0000 to 999 ' 9999 . This means that there are 10 millions tickets each consisting of RM 3.00 per piece. RM 501 will let you acquire 167 pieces of tickets. The probability of winning the lottery is 1 / 10 ' 000 ' 000 x 167 = 0.00167 % chance. This means you have 1 - 0.00167 = 99.83% chance of losing that capital.
Now let now take TA GTF as an example. The 3 year average ROI is 21.5% and a three year average standard - deviation of 13.29%. Her one year to date ROI is 34.81%. Three year average return plus standard deviation = [ 21.5 plus 13.29 equals 34.79% ] which means the current one year ROI is very near to one standard deviation . This also means that the probability / chance of it regressing to its mean is 67% and only 1 - 67% = 33% of it moving away from the mean.
Now compare this two situation, with lottery you have 99.83 percent of losing.
With TA GTF, you have 67% of it losing.
If your choice is between spending RM 500.00 on participating in a lottery draw versus participating in TA GTF , which one should you choose ?
Bear in mind , a lottery is a one time gamble , meaning for the next round , you need to add more capital . Whereas TA GTF is always a participant until you redeem your units.
Xuzen
I don't mean to compare TA GTF with lottery.Let us take the Malaysian big sweep as an example. There are seven digits starting from 000 ' 0000 to 999 ' 9999 . This means that there are 10 millions tickets each consisting of RM 3.00 per piece. RM 501 will let you acquire 167 pieces of tickets. The probability of winning the lottery is 1 / 10 ' 000 ' 000 x 167 = 0.00167 % chance. This means you have 1 - 0.00167 = 99.83% chance of losing that capital.
Now let now take TA GTF as an example. The 3 year average ROI is 21.5% and a three year average standard - deviation of 13.29%. Her one year to date ROI is 34.81%. Three year average return plus standard deviation = [ 21.5 plus 13.29 equals 34.79% ] which means the current one year ROI is very near to one standard deviation . This also means that the probability / chance of it regressing to its mean is 67% and only 1 - 67% = 33% of it moving away from the mean.
Now compare this two situation, with lottery you have 99.83 percent of losing.
With TA GTF, you have 67% of it losing.
If your choice is between spending RM 500.00 on participating in a lottery draw versus participating in TA GTF , which one should you choose ?
Bear in mind , a lottery is a one time gamble , meaning for the next round , you need to add more capital . Whereas TA GTF is always a participant until you redeem your units.
Xuzen
I want to compare say Manulife US with EI GLF, not just looking at risk return ratio because if just looking at risk return ratio, EI GLF came out last. Can I incorporate the likelihood aspect somewhere, because I think EI GLF has higher likelihood of higher return.
May 12 2017, 03:12 PM

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