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 FundSuperMart v18 (FSM) MY : Online UT Platform, UT DIY : Babystep to Investing :D

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xuzen
post Jul 31 2017, 01:11 PM

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QUOTE(drew86 @ Jul 31 2017, 01:05 PM)
For your info, xuzen has been sharing his portfolio in this forum. It's no secret. You can just use the search button.
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Hahacat is still butthurt because I called him Mr One-Hit-Wonder....

And Mr One-Hit-Wonder, comes blazing in like Kid Dynamo and showing off his port when I have been sharing my port since 2013 till now 2017 (4 years) since version 4 of this thread. Now we are at version 18. Regulars would know. It is no big deal for me, I am upfront, I made some good calls and bad calls. And those regulars would know I have been straight - forward in my sharing.

Xuzen



This post has been edited by xuzen: Jul 31 2017, 01:17 PM
xuzen
post Jul 31 2017, 01:53 PM

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QUOTE(i1899 @ Jul 31 2017, 01:37 PM)
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Conpare and contrast the two algozen™ ver four readings that are two months apart. No much major change. It is still a five member port. Only thing is I am reducing 5% from esther bond and putting it into tech fund.

Safi and KGF, which one to choose: Up to individual taste, allocate 15% max

Manu or Selina? Go with Manu. Ramjade's call is good. See above for my reasoning.

Xuzen

p/s If you prefer more aggressive port recommendation, just ask me or PM me.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jul 31 2017, 01:59 PM
xuzen
post Jul 31 2017, 02:22 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Jul 31 2017, 02:09 PM)
I think a lot of people drop their spectacles when they see Dana Safi there as an option to KGF.

Are you sure it's your style ? Or you are increasingly finding its risk is getting more acceptable ?

brows.gif
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The 3 years average risk to reward ratio for Safi is 1.01; KGF is 0.98. Both are very close. KGF 1: Safi 1

Safi has shorter track record compared to KGF: KGF 1: Safi 0

Safi has lower corr-coeff with the other members of the port compared to KGF: KGF 0: Safi 1

Hence KGF 2: Safi 2

Both are evenly matched. That is why I said if you are gung-ho, go for Safi, if you are slow and steady, go for KGF because she has better consistency.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jul 31 2017, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(voyage23 @ Jul 31 2017, 02:29 PM)
What about Asia ex Japan region?
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RHB AIF, AMReits & Manureits are proxy for Asia ex Japan exposure. Morningstar portal does not have Ponzi two's corr-coeff data, hence unable to compute and make a decision / opinion.

QUOTE(Avangelice @ Jul 31 2017, 02:30 PM)
Xuzen. question. what about those who have kapchai fund in their ports. I know it's no longer available but what is the corelation between that, kgf and Safi. if I already have kapchai I really do not need another my EQ fund
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Kapchai = suxs fund now. Her glory days are over. BTW, Kapchai corr-coeff with KGF is 0.93 FYI. You're better off with KGF.

QUOTE(i1899 @ Jul 31 2017, 03:06 PM)
The numbers look great but a bit weird...

if u concern on concentration risk for 52% port in Spore REIT by Manulife REIT. y still ok with 80% on US tech by Ta global tech?

80% * 30% = 24% in US tech, where US tech PE are generally >30 now. The risk is very high base on valuation....
while, 5.2% in Spore REIT, where PE of Spore REIT are generally at 12.x, still ok worh...
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Algozen™ ver four inputs does not consist of Fwd PER. Only three parameters are used: ROI, Std-Dev & Corr-Coeff. I suppose one way of looking at it is, the market, despite knowing that the PER is high, doesn't give a sh1t, it is still good because the return and risk trade-off is still within acceptable range.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Jul 31 2017, 09:49 PM

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QUOTE(T231H @ Jul 31 2017, 08:48 PM)
bcos it increase the returns expectation from 13% to 14%
by reducing the AHBF 5% and add to TAGTF.
while lowered the RR.....

hmm.gif wondering why target 14% now instead of 13% previously?
14% more optimised now than previous 13%?
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I think the reason is the volatility of the 13% port and 14% is very close, if that is the case, choose the higher return port for the same level of risk. It is logical. But let me recheck my 13% port again, will get back to you tomorrow. Out of office now...

QUOTE(Ancient-XinG- @ Jul 31 2017, 09:08 PM)
xuzen

My current port

Tech
Esther
KapChai
Evergreen
India
RHB total return
Titanic

80 EQ 20 Bond

Is this aggressive port ok? Been doing just merely 7% pa.

Seems below average for an aggressive port.

EISC really cant rely ad? haha
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Your info does not tell me anything. Tell me the percentage of holding for each fund and how long have you held them.
7% p.a. Seems a bit low for your port. Something is not right....

QUOTE(i1899 @ Jul 31 2017, 09:15 PM)
To me, choose a fund solely base on historical data is a dangerous möve. The performance, the volatility, RRR etc etc are all history.

Invest base on current PER of invested market, or valuation may be is better approach.
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PER valuation to choose a fund is just one of a method to select a winning horse. If this work for you continue doing so. I use the Markowitch Modern Portfolio Theory method to select my winning horses.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Jul 31 2017, 09:58 PM
xuzen
post Aug 1 2017, 03:02 PM

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Today is the 1st of August 2017, another month has gone by.

Time for personal port review.

Last month (July 2017) was a good month. All my UTF naik naik naik. Tech fund was the best performer followed by Selina and Esther. RHB EMB & Lee Sook Yee was flattish.

Overall, port gained 1.XX% in a month. 12 mths rolling ROI is 8%. 12 mths rolling std-dev is 2.5%, making a risk to reward ratio of 8/2.5 = 3.2

Now, some of you will ask, how come only 8% p.a., but he always says his port will make 14%. That is because I DCA and I keep reserve in MMF. That is why there is a drag in performance. Which is ok, coz those who know me over the years will understand I am a kiasi investor. I take care of my risk first, return is secondary.

Xuzen

p/s If you look at my std-dev, it is darn low. I think I can afford to take more risk going forward. I may engineer the risk to reward to drop to 2.5 to enhance my ROI. It is a wonderful feeling when one is in control of the risk and reward and not vice-versa.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 1 2017, 03:07 PM
xuzen
post Aug 1 2017, 03:17 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Aug 1 2017, 03:13 PM)
Your fans will also in the same, DCA brings down ROI. Plus there are switching/buying service fees. So realistically can only get 7% or something thereabout.
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Switching / buying sales charge is not applicable to me. Oh btw, the 8% is net of platform fee, hence my actual ROI should be 9%. Going forward, I will deploy more cash into higher risk asset class. My ROI should improve over time, at the expense of std-dev. But it is all engineered.

Xuzen

p/s Next week I will deploy more cash into riskier asset class. Will share with you good folks next week regarding my move.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 1 2017, 03:25 PM
xuzen
post Aug 1 2017, 03:21 PM

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» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

I use the Average and Standard Deviation function (fx) found in excel and let the computer do the rest.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

Correct

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 1 2017, 03:21 PM
xuzen
post Aug 1 2017, 08:51 PM

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Bila market naik, kata nak ditunggu market crash.

Bila market crash, takut pulak masok.

Semua cuma sekadar berpenglipulara aje. Cakap sekadar omong-omong. Nothing concrete, all talk, no action.

Cuma teori aje yang pandai, praktisnya ke mana pergi? Teori pun tak sepandai mana.... teori syiok sendiri aje yang banyak.

Xuzen

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 1 2017, 08:53 PM
xuzen
post Aug 2 2017, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Aug 2 2017, 10:07 AM)
Manulife presenter Edwin Lee is promoting the Manulife Dragon Growth Fund as the fund of choice for China exposure now but there is no graph for it in FSM.

There is a graph in Bloomberg though.

Prefer to see that in FSM so that a few funds can be superimposed together and compared.

Anyone know how to get around it ?
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Edwin Lee is "Mai Fah, chan fah heong"

Meaning; promoting one's own product aka sales man talk. Which is nothing wrong, he is after all, just doing his job.

However, if you were to compare with other peer, CIMB Greater China and Eastspring Dinasti gave a better 3 year average return with lower std-deviation. The choice then becomes logical.

Xuzen

p/s my personal call is CIMB Greater China. It is on the FSM R-List for a long time. It is consistent on the performance list with above peer Sharpe value.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 2 2017, 02:49 PM
xuzen
post Aug 2 2017, 02:45 PM

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Since my active participation on this LYN - FSM thread from 2013 to now; if each and every time a penglipulara sell us a doom and gloom narrative, I'd get a ringgit, I would be richer than the founder of JJPTR, Johnson Lee.



xuzen
post Aug 3 2017, 11:05 AM

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QUOTE(young_97 @ Aug 3 2017, 10:42 AM)
Hello, im new to investment,
I wanna ask is there any Unit Trust / Fund that we can just buy and sell after 1 month and have higher profit than the CMF ? People tell me UT/Funds need to put at least few years for profit

Thanks
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Very low probability to succeed. You want to play one month keluar - masuk style, hit and run, one - hit -wonder type of game; head over to forex or play warrant.


xuzen
post Aug 4 2017, 03:46 PM

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QUOTE(funnyface @ Aug 4 2017, 08:57 AM)
To REIT or not to REIT

hmm.gif
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The article talks about property sector. REITs is not directly comparable to property sector. Prop sector income comes from selling of the said property. REITS income comes from rental of the completed property. It is a fixed income / yield play. They should not be seen as the same.

BTW, REITS UTF has been on the best risk to reward top list since 3 quarters ago. Those who invested in Manureits are happy happy. Selina reits..... hmmmm, less happy.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Aug 4 2017, 04:31 PM

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QUOTE(funnyface @ Aug 4 2017, 04:19 PM)
I see, i thought REIT is highly correlated to property price/sales  biggrin.gif
Thank you sifu  notworthy.gif

Was holding Selina REITs, not so happy  sweat.gif  then switch to Manu REITs around 2 months back, quite happy now  laugh.gif
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Go give that Kiam Siap Kwee aka Ramjade a big big wet kiss!
xuzen
post Aug 5 2017, 03:26 PM

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Transaction for next week:

1) Add MYR 1,000.00 to IDS (Test market dulu)

2) DCA MYR 500.00 to Tech fund

3) Sell all Selina RM 40K to transfer to Manureits ( One year holding = profit 3.XX% bye.gif bye.gif bye.gif )

4) Add MYR 15K to RHB EMB.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Aug 5 2017, 06:57 PM

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QUOTE(voyage23 @ Aug 5 2017, 05:15 PM)
I don't think anyone questioned his wealth. But I have personally asked before for his returns in % because he always shows "Gained rm2xxx this month" which carries no meaning. But then later on he said he doesn't track his IRR so ya.
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One of the reason I am reluctant to reveal the amount in my port is that I, rightly or wrongly, do not want people to be influence by the number behind it. Lay people have this tendency to have this misconception, his port is huge, he must be clever in making money etc,... Let's follow him blindly like lemmings.

Rather,

I would like it more if people understand the fundamentals, the academics or the logical reasoning behind the port. After all, my sifu / my mentor was a Nobel Prize winner in economics before. I am not a creator of a new trading system, I am am just a follower.

Xuzen
xuzen
post Aug 6 2017, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(besiegetank @ Aug 5 2017, 09:03 PM)
Hopefully Malaysian stocks can still rally till the election. Right now betting on emerging market?
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Betting denotes a gamble, a speculation, an unknown....BTW, why would anyone want to bet / gamble / speculate on a bond fund? Bond UTF cannot win big wan.

However, to answer your question, RHB EMB is another asset class which has low correlation to my other risky assets in my overall portfolio, thereby providing a diversification and thus lowering overall portfolio risk, while still maintaning the desired expected return.

QUOTE(9GAG/8FACT @ Aug 5 2017, 11:00 PM)
Thank you! What about ester bond? I can't seem to find it in FSM.
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Esther bond = Affin Hwang Select Bond fund, the name Esther is the name of the fund manager, Esther Teo. She has a huge fan base here at LYN - FSM.

QUOTE(Ramjade @ Aug 6 2017, 10:34 AM)
That's if got people subscribe for it
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There is a sucker born every minute.

QUOTE(elea88 @ Aug 6 2017, 11:43 AM)
Anyone diversified to Australia fund?
CIMB-Principal Australian Equity Fund

https://www.fundsupermart.com.my/main/fundi...-Fund-MYCIMB008

the top holdings in this fund:
1 ANZ Banking Group Ltd. Australia 6.00%
2 BHP Billiton Limited Australia 5.80%
3 Commonwealth Bank of Australia Australia 5.70%
4 National Australia Bank Limited Australia 5.70%
5 Westpac Banking Corporation Australia 5.70%
6 Rio Tinto Limited Australia 4.70%
7 Woolworths Ltd Australia 4.30%
8 Telstra Corporation Limited Australia 3.60%
9 Alumina Limited Australia 2.90%
10 Brambles Limited Australia 2.10%
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Not me.
xuzen
post Aug 7 2017, 02:37 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Aug 7 2017, 11:49 AM)
You just theoreticize it only. When it actually happens, you will find other reasons not to enter: small scale war lar, or the lowest bottom yet lar, etc etc.
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LOL!!! Ha ha ha ha thumbup.gif thumbup.gif thumbup.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


Xuzen
xuzen
post Aug 7 2017, 04:15 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Aug 7 2017, 03:23 PM)
Bro just graduate la. Need to take things slow. What I learnt, cannot depend on job. So need to make sure I have cash coming in (dividend investing). So if in the future if say retrench, at least my dividends are coming in. Got some level of support.
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QUOTE(i1899 @ Aug 7 2017, 03:44 PM)
Meaning u r jobless now?  blink.gif If u were graduated, go to find a decent job first lah.

Even u r great, taking 20% pa from ur investment with a capital of SGD 10K, Ur yearly passive income is SGD 2K only.
While, u can get active income SGD3K/ month or SGD36K per year easily.

Be realistic la. Don't confuse on ur priority now.
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QUOTE(xuzen @ Aug 7 2017, 02:37 PM)
In actual fact, his real real real reason is: He has no money. Hence tok-kok sing song only! and try to gives lots of silly theories to impress naïve / gullible noobs


I rest my case.

This post has been edited by xuzen: Aug 7 2017, 04:25 PM
xuzen
post Aug 7 2017, 04:49 PM

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QUOTE(tifosi @ Aug 7 2017, 04:43 PM)
When DJI was at 20k all time high, people were cautious, hording cash preparing for a crash. Then DJI hits 22k. "Expert" say it's gonna crash again. Who knows it will climb to another record high at 24k?

You can't time the market. Just continue pumping in but just more cautious. Else you'll lose out.
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Dow is made up of 30 top giant conglomerate in NYSE.

A better broader gauge should be the S&P 500. (made up of 500 American companies)

Russel's 3000 anyone?

Xuzen
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