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 Multiple Signs of Malaysia Property Bubble V20

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TSicemanfx
post Jan 28 2019, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 28 2019, 05:36 PM)
Trying to understand from Iceman how to define and confirm bubble burst... and when is the right time to buy if it take years to bottom....
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Buy when blood is knee deep on the floor.
evangelion
post Jan 28 2019, 08:24 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 28 2019, 03:01 PM)

If this table is correct, occupancy rate in PJ should be higher than 85%  rclxub.gif

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Can elaborate this?
Ty notworthy.gif
scorptim
post Jan 28 2019, 08:39 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 28 2019, 05:36 PM)
Trying to understand from Iceman how to define and confirm bubble burst... and when is the right time to buy if it take years to bottom....
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You won’t get s straight answer

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 28 2019, 05:47 PM)
Buy when blood is knee deep on the floor.
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And when exactly is that? Your answer like no answer. What is the bottom? 30% below current market price, 50%, 70%?

Make a call man!
SUSAngelic Layer
post Jan 28 2019, 08:41 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 28 2019, 05:36 PM)
Trying to understand from Iceman how to define and confirm bubble burst... and when is the right time to buy if it take years to bottom....
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For me I would look at interbank rate, if interbank lending rose, means that there is no money in the market, like in stock trying to play bottom is like catching a falling knife.
I would look to buy at the first rise at the trough, say, I would buy when interest rate falls, the ones in the business should know.

Don't trust the Edge, they have vested interest in the property industry, if you follow their analyst recommendation you will die.

I don't want too much blood either, property price in KL slump for many years since May 13th for example and I don't want our country to become the next Venezuela.
skyjuyce
post Jan 28 2019, 08:42 PM

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Does this buble affect prop in Ipoh too?
kevyeoh
post Jan 28 2019, 09:27 PM

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From icemanfx... yes... I won't get any answer except the usual copy and paste robot answer...

QUOTE(scorptim @ Jan 28 2019, 08:39 PM)
You won’t get s straight answer
And when exactly is that? Your answer like no answer. What is the bottom? 30% below current market price, 50%, 70%?

Make a call man!
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Thanks... compared to long time ago when I bought my property.. I think the interest rate has been dropping or it is definitely lower now compared to many years ago ... so we are not even in the phase where there is limited cashflow in market now? Thanks for sharing your inputs btw...

QUOTE(Angelic Layer @ Jan 28 2019, 08:41 PM)
For me I would look at interbank rate, if interbank lending rose, means that there is no money in the market, like in stock trying to play bottom is like catching a falling knife.
I would look to buy at the first rise at the trough, say, I would buy when interest rate falls, the ones in the business should know.

Don't trust the Edge, they have vested interest in the property industry, if you follow their analyst recommendation you will die.

I don't want too much blood either, property price in KL slump for many years since May 13th for example and I don't want our country to become the next Venezuela.
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SUSAngelic Layer
post Jan 28 2019, 09:42 PM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 28 2019, 09:27 PM)
From icemanfx... yes... I won't get any answer except the usual copy and paste robot answer...
Thanks... compared to long time ago when I bought my property.. I think the interest rate has been dropping or it is definitely lower now compared to many years ago ... so we are not even in the phase where there is limited cashflow in market now? Thanks for sharing your inputs btw...
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I don't know where you get your info, but your interbank rate is almost at the highest in the past 10 years.
https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/interbank-rate

And a page back here, they mentioned banks raised mortgage rate too.
bani_prime
post Jan 28 2019, 09:45 PM

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What is this iceman thing?
AskarPerang
post Jan 28 2019, 09:46 PM

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About 180 developers will offer 22,000 units worth a total of RM22.5 billion to help reduce the gap between property oversupply and lack of affordable homes. (Bloomberg pic)

KUALA LUMPUR: About RM22.5 billion worth of homes will be sold to bridge the gap between property oversupply and lack of affordable homes, with developers asked to offer at least a 10% discount.

The numbers are staggering: About 180 developers will offer 22,000 units worth a total of RM22.5 billion (US$5.5 billion) at the expo planned for March 1 to 3. About a quarter of the property on offer will be priced at RM300,000 or less, said Housing and Local Government Minister Zuraida Kamaruddin, adding that the transactions will be exempt from stamp duty fee.

“We hope that better discounts will be given to the people, as high as possible,” Zuraida said today.

“We are trying to reduce the gap starting from the expo. From then on we will try to clean up.”

The average cost of a home in the country was five times the annual median household income in 2016, above the global standard of three times, Bank Negara Malaysia said in a quarterly bulletin posted in August.

Meanwhile, the number of residential units remaining unsold nine months after being completed rose 18% from a year ago to 29,227 units in the first half of 2018, according to the National Property Information Centre. That’s before accounting for almost 100,000 uncompleted units that were coming to the market.

The problem may lie in a mismatch between the type of homes Malaysians are looking to buy, and the luxury units that developers keep building.

The central bank estimated that RM282,000 was the maximum price achievable for the median Malaysian household, while actual median house prices were 11% higher, it said in the report.

The ministry will consider affordability in approving future residential projects by accounting for the income level in the area, Zuraida said.

https://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...-sale-in-march/
mekboyz
post Jan 28 2019, 09:49 PM

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Guys is Atria SOFO damansara jaya a good invesment?
kevyeoh
post Jan 29 2019, 07:28 AM

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Wasn't monitoring the rates but now I am clear you are defining the range as past 10 years... if you read the article ... back in 1997... all time high of 14.50... so even though 2009 is 2.03% and currently is about 3.65% .. it is still no where near the 14.5% rate...

Malaysia Three Month Interbank Rate was quoted at 3.65 percent on Friday January 25. Interbank Rate in Malaysia averaged 4.06 percent from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 14.50 percent in July of 1997 and a record low of 2.03 percent in February of 2009.

QUOTE(Angelic Layer @ Jan 28 2019, 09:42 PM)
I don't know where you get your info, but your interbank rate is almost at the highest in the past 10 years.
https://tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/interbank-rate

And a page back here, they mentioned banks raised mortgage rate too.
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SUSAngelic Layer
post Jan 29 2019, 08:51 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 29 2019, 07:28 AM)
Wasn't monitoring the rates but now I am clear you are defining the range as past 10 years... if you read the article ... back in 1997... all time high of 14.50... so even though 2009 is 2.03% and currently is about 3.65% .. it is still no where near the 14.5% rate...

Malaysia Three Month Interbank Rate was quoted at 3.65 percent on Friday January 25. Interbank Rate in Malaysia averaged 4.06 percent from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 14.50 percent in July of 1997 and a record low of 2.03 percent in February of 2009.
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Dear sir, you are too young to live at my age, do you know what year is 1997-1998?
Do you know that Korea, Indonesia and Thailand default?
Which means that the country is essentially bankrupt?

You actually see blood on the street, South Koreans suicide, take demonstration to the street and actually changed their dictatorship government, on the other hand Thailand military controls the country, in Indonesia Suharto cannot afford to pay his army and they turn to piracy in the straits of Malacca, they blame this to the Chinese ethnic as scapegoat and actually kill and rape Chinese in Indonesia, many flee here.
We live in interesting times back then as I remember.

We are a hair close to bankrupt, before this our currency stood 2.5 to one USD, and even the money you saved evaporate, not to mention stocks, assets, property is even less concern back then.

Do you know that we actually banned Singapore stock holders of KLSE from selling our stock?
Many of Singaporeans are screwed big big time and we have never attract as much foreign investment ever since.

A 10 year market cycle is long enough for any indicator, given our country is only 62 years old still.
If you think it is normal to take 14.5% as a benchmark, go ahead.

I suggest you to watch the recent Korean movie:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iw_wt2hHW2w

This post has been edited by Angelic Layer: Jan 29 2019, 10:53 AM
TSicemanfx
post Jan 29 2019, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(kevyeoh @ Jan 29 2019, 07:28 AM)
Wasn't monitoring the rates but now I am clear you are defining the range as past 10 years... if you read the article ... back in 1997... all time high of 14.50... so even though 2009 is 2.03% and currently is about 3.65% .. it is still no where near the 14.5% rate...

Malaysia Three Month Interbank Rate was quoted at 3.65 percent on Friday January 25. Interbank Rate in Malaysia averaged 4.06 percent from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 14.50 percent in July of 1997 and a record low of 2.03 percent in February of 2009.
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Many still don't realize kv property bull run 2011-2014 was fueled by easy and cheap credit, a fallout of u.s qe. Bnm rate normally track fed rate and fed rate is normalizing i.e will eventually about 150 basis point higher.

With amount of gearing many investors are taking, loan interest rate need not reach 10% to see blood is knee deep on the floor.

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 29 2019, 10:20 AM
TSicemanfx
post Jan 31 2019, 12:05 PM

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QUOTE(woolei @ Jan 31 2019, 11:46 AM)
Please check the arch cyberjaya thread, very very pity those owner.

the house price from 900k lelong until 300k then got bidder.

those buy at 500k, selling at 300k subsales.
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iqlas
post Jan 31 2019, 01:56 PM

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Is currently a good time to look for house? Im looking for condo/ apartment below rm300k somewhere around bangi, punchong or cyberjaya but maybe i should wait a little bit longer with all the talk about price going down?
TSicemanfx
post Jan 31 2019, 04:44 PM

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Attached Image

Historical home price in Japan

This post has been edited by icemanfx: Jan 31 2019, 04:45 PM
TSicemanfx
post Jan 31 2019, 09:24 PM

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user posted image
Those bbb/uuu may find this graph correspond to kv property price.

SUSAngelic Layer
post Jan 31 2019, 09:33 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 31 2019, 09:24 PM)
user posted image
Those bbb/uuu may find this graph correspond to kv property price.
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Fed asset purchasing not necessary related to property, but since last decade they absorbed Freddie and Fannie, so it is the exception.
TSicemanfx
post Jan 31 2019, 09:46 PM

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QUOTE(Angelic Layer @ Jan 31 2019, 09:33 PM)
Fed asset purchasing not necessary related to property, but since last decade they absorbed Freddie and Fannie, so it is the exception.
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KV property bull run 2011-2014 was fuelled by easy and cheap credit, a fallout of u.s qe.

SUSdestiny6
post Jan 31 2019, 09:51 PM

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QUOTE(iqlas @ Jan 31 2019, 01:56 PM)
Is currently a good time to look for house? Im looking for condo/ apartment below rm300k  somewhere around bangi, punchong or cyberjaya but maybe i should wait a little bit longer with all the talk about price going down?
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With everything price increase, what makes u think property is spared? If you looking for own stay, no need to wait, just buy only, else u can go for auction unit


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