ya, i hope so.

i am not trading fx, just usd equities.

4.1, ok... but i am looking for 4.2x early next year.

i am not expecting it so soon, but if it hits 4.1 next few days, good also.

maybe sell a bit.

but like i said, i'm looking for 4.2x, can wait.

more like i'm not holding cash but equities.

and us stocks been running up!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 21 2016, 10:21 PM

this, i have no idea.

i just think a correction is coming.


SRR is about liquidity.

doubt it will impact FX.

4.06x.

despite crude price dropping 3+% last 36 hours, can't get close to 4.1.

meaning the effect of crude price is capped, top and bottom.

to get >4.1, will need something else...

we will see what we will see...

if data continues to improve, the chance of rate hike will rise thru dec.

for now, this factor is probably going to be the most impt for USD-RM.


Futures show a 45% chance of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates by December, compared with 9% at the end of June, after data on retail sales, housing and employment in the U.S. beat economists’ estimates.

fomc mtg tue-wed.

market is expecting no hike, hence a weaker $ today.

the real issue is how hawkish or dovish the statement will be on thu early morning.

that will determine the direction of the $ for the next couple of months.

next few days may see major change...

.. fed statement 28/7
.. boj action/inaction 29/7
.. bijan new dictatorial powers 1/8

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 27 2016, 12:50 PM

me too.

we'll see... next week.

u mean by.

total national debt is about rm900bil, the last i read.

no fed hike, fed comments neutral, sep looking unlikely as well.

anxiety evaporates, usd weakens, rm strengthens.

wait again...

yes, that's what i said.


but really, it's the USD that has weakened due to refreshed fed position.

ALL currencies gained over the $ today.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 28 2016, 01:43 PM

wait a bit.

i see the $ strengthening against RM again with BOJ helicopter money tmrw/next week.

+ slipping oil prices

+ bijan chronicles getting hot

one way or another, i will sell some USD or SGD next week, need some cash for spending.

from last 12 months, crude price effect on rm is strongest in the $45-55 range.

<45 or >55, the effect diminishes.

just my observation.

4.15... will take some other major factor(s).

4.08 will be just fine.

nothing significant from boj today.

crude price rebounding now as traders take profit.

can't wait, i sold some today, need the money...

no major drivers at this time.

there should be by year end... chance of:

.. fed rate hike
.. msia gdp slowdown
.. bnm cut rate again
.. foreign funds exit msia due to...@#$%
.. crude price <40

meanwhile, dun wait for fx to move, better put yr usd or sgd or rm to work harder.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Aug 1 2016, 08:15 PM

tough, man...

crude had temp reprieve last night/this morning, helped rm.

now, crude is slipping again - oversupply, as usual.

usd/rm... will likely be 4.04-4.08 for some time, imo.

will be very hard to make profit from this range.

better look for profits elsewhere.

ok, if u believe this report...

this will come if...

crude takes another leg down to <40.

it has risen from 39 to >43 in the last 2 days due to "opec will meet soon" news.

that held the rm good.

when the opec news becomes nothing like it usually does, and oil stocks balloon further, rm will decline.

i'll wait a month. i am still looking for 4.1x.



in the unlikely event opec does agree on something solid in sep, be quick to sell yr $!