sorry, but i think u r not getting it right.


when did zeti say that?

things have changed a lot - trump win; strong us data now make analysts think "a series of hikes" may be possible in 2017-2018.

no, money has NOT gone into treasuries. in fact, 1 trillion in us bonds evaporated after trump win as holders sold off, yields rose >2.3%.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/14/trump-thump...llion-loss.html

money from around the world is going into US stocks, commodities and CASH. so, there is a lot of hot money which makes it very dangerous for a weak currency, weak economy.


and what is "a lot of control" bnm has now? can't peg, low reserves, RM already non-tradeable outside, foreigners selling stocks and bonds... so, freeze all money... no in, no out?!



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 23 2016, 05:31 PM

it took only 3 hours:


22 Nov 2016 09:00 UTC - 23 Nov 2016 09:08 UTC USD/MYR close:4.45230 low:4.40005 high:4.45326

the problem is in the weightage of items the basket of goods measured for CPI.

for donkey years, cries for changes had not been entertained.

so, controlled price items and rural living costs dominate; totally irrelevant for urban/suburban.
http://samcheekong.blogspot.my/2012/07/how...pulate-cpi.html

now, add the weak-weak RM, urban/suburban folks will take a hard knock, again.

one very bad thing from this "manipulated" CPI thingy is many employers take gomen CPI + 0.5% or +1% for annual salary increment.

die or not?

RM has the Rupee and Rupiah going thru the same fallout.

RBI intervening now; Indon going to borrow a few bil USD to cope.

RM still Asian champion.



come think of it... all that hard work for the folks in the FD thread for max 4.15% p.a. more that wiped out in 1 month.

strange days... year(s) of living dangerously...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 23 2016, 05:59 PM

i wud think so.

look the dollar index, been spiking.
now at a level not seen since 2003:
http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index

bad bad for those short on $ in fx trading in the last hour.

can't imagine what happens if:

.. $ index keeps climbing
.. bnm burns most reserves
.. opec fails on nov 30, oil goes <40 again

ya, miss him... i liked his analyses, one of the more truthful and insightful ones.

actually, no.

he was the only local one i that i always read.

the rest are nowhere like him.

worst are the gomen linked bankers/analysts.

these days, i read mainly bloomberg but are mostly more general and wider topics.

with mo1 and rm crashing, there are a couple of articles on msia every week these days.

can also read wsj and financial times.

maybe not!

the trick is use google.

for that article, google "ringgit wsj", u will find it, all good.

yes, it is strange. no transaction at all?

we'll see tmrw.

us 10 yr rose 9.6bps today.

USA thanksgiving break, markets closed today and 1/2 day tmrw.

RM should be very stable for next 2 days.

Easy to intervene, i suppose.

If planning to buy/sell, good time.



Now, flatlined at 4.40 looks a little unreal.

SGD at 1.435, rmb 69.2 and yen 112.6.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 24 2016, 10:27 AM

xe.com is down, showing 4.400.

bloomberg... 4.4587

bnm, noon... 4.4635

ooo... cnbc caught it!


http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/23/malaysia-ce...it-support.html

alright guys... all of u caught it first!


the more impt thing is...

it can't be that some incompetent fella made such a grave mistake.

and let's hope it is not following the footsteps of #m$d%b - lie upon lie.

looking ugly...



$ strength is expected to continue well into 2017.



opec cut may be too little late too late for the RM.
higher petrol prices and much weaker purchasing power for the RM will hurt our pockets deeply next year.
if add GST incr, even harder.



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 25 2016, 10:11 AM

no need to guess la...

it is not the first time not answering such questions.

we will just get the consequences.

not a problem, can always say better than somalia, north korea.

or blame dr m, soros - a couple of bloggers ramming up this spin now.

aromachong will return very soon.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 25 2016, 01:08 PM

Latest prediction, from national austrakia bank.


NAB expected that the dollar would fetch as much as 4.85 ringgit at the end of 2017, Julian Wee, senior markets strategist for Asia at NAB and one of the writers of the note, said via email.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/24/malaysian-r...1mdb-risks.html

2 years ago, in this thread v1, at 3.7, most din care about 4.0 prospect.

Some predicted it to return to 3.5 quickly.

When 4.0 came, not many cared about 4.3 prospect.


But yes, all these predictions are just what they are - predictions.

Anyone can predict.

A matter who u think can predict better.

But most of all, the impt thing is your own assessment, what u will do, if anything and if the outcome affects u or not.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 25 2016, 03:28 PM

i may sell some $ for RM for expense at that rate but i will not short $ in the real sense.

i will watch:

.. trump/fed moves - $ index, bond yields
.. china RMB moves
.. bursa/mgs
.. opec/oil price
.. mo1&thieves, hudud, red amoks
.. bnm desperado moves

if trump turns out to be a dud, RMB recovers, no more selling in bursa/mgs, opec gets act together... it may be time to go all RM.

mo1&@#$ are here to stay... no change here.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 25 2016, 07:00 PM