pegging is dangerous biz.
by pegging, say at 4.0 u PROMISE everyone u WILL have $1 everytime someone hands over RM4.
foreigners hold hundreds of billions in gomen RM bonds, where to find all that $ if they rush out?

it could be done in 1998 becos there wasn't much debt then, can borrow to hold the peg.
now, debt level very high, very dangerous to borrow more to do that.
think about it, if it is easy to peg, every poor country will do that, peg 1:1 to $ or euro, everyone is rich!!

many pegs have failed with terrible consequences, incl egypt 2 weeks ago:

it can be worse.

in its extremity, can enact new laws to nationalize full or partial certain pension and savings funds, even fixed deposits.

recent examples incl greece...

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 16 2016, 10:41 AM

in one word - real wealth.

high gdp due to consumption is not wealth creation.

borrowing to spend is not wealth.

a nation's people need to produce-sell-export enough to have a strong and stable currency.

a nation's leaders need to have the vision-lead-execute-refine over decades to achieve that.

politicking, free money and stealing makes it worse.

good also.

better slow and steady even if falling.

less disruptive, more time to buy or sell.

4.36.

Its always easy to bring up conspiracy theory and blame somebody else.

Even this time, many are accusing soros and currency speculators when they can do nothing with rm non-internationalized years ago.

But i will agree with u if u mean the richest crooks are able to illicitly move big money outside with central bank inaction.

That can only be since we are no.5 for that in the world, incredible for such a small country.

like i said so many times...

if a currency can strengthen with incr debt, corruption, wastage, free money, low productivity, there will be no poor nation on earth.

maybe on a planet in proxima centauri.

we may be witnessing history in the making at this moment:

USD/MYR 4.410

SGD/MYR 3.109



china RMB at 8 yr low.

for small amount and no other risk taking, that's the only way.

larger amounts, can visit the investment banks - several other options but not w/o other risks, e.g dual currency account, foreign currency equities, gold.

they believe they are the masters of the universe, can't go wrong.

if it goes wrong, it's 100% others' fault.


yellen tonite:



This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 17 2016, 11:39 AM

true, we know that.

but does everyone?

abe may not be right here!

You can fool all the people some of the time, and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time. Abraham Lincoln

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 17 2016, 11:52 AM

step by step, something may actually be brewing:



i actually think they may be forced to raise if fed raise on dec 14.

notice some banks now offering FD rates from nominal 3.9% to as high s 4.2% since last week?

10 yr mgs touched 4.35% 2 days ago.

"caught between the devil and the deep blue sea", "lesser of two evils".

and with yellow-red parade on sat?

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 17 2016, 05:55 PM

new one... this is BAD.

BNM has a lot to explain to avoid panic.

pls dun say u didn't know:


Yellen: Rate hike 'appropriate relatively soon,' cites dangers in waiting
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/17/yellen-rate...in-waiting.html

buy USD with RM now?

.. fed 98% will hike on dec 14.
.. will keep up the pressure and hike again in 2017.
.. trump not even sworn in but will fulfill at least of couple of promises - inflationary, good for biz.
.. $ will continue to retreat from EM, esp the weak ones.

.. oil price rising due to russia, saudi, iran taking turns to talk it up - maybe until D-Day Nov 30 - will OPEC/Russia deliver?
.. failure to deliver or deliver short will mean crude back to <40.

.. there WILL be surprises.

i just hold my $ close to my chest for now.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Nov 17 2016, 10:00 PM

if i need USD, Euro, GBP, SGD or AUD for sure in the next 3 months in meaningful amounts, i will buy now.

i was surprised u made the first comment as i thought u would have known!

it's all about CONFIDENCE.

which is seriously lacking, getting worse:

.. USD is appreciating against MYR.
.. Chinese authorities are letting RMB depreciate, triggering the prospect of currency devaluation war.
.. under MO1 administration, the country has recorded an external debt of RM833 billion as of end of 2015.
.. crude oil prices are still sagging.
.. investors are still being spooked by 1MDB scandal which doesn’t seem to be going away.

there is not a single piece of strong support at this time.

the $ is ALWAYS driving all other currencies - biggest open economy, world trade denomination.

YEN never had the ambition to exert more influence.

EURO and RMB were supposed to take over some influence from $ but there was Grexit, Brexit, China not ready.

all the rest are small fry.


the "defence" seen now is only tactical and limited in effect.

if anything to draw from the thai baht collapse in 1997, it is impt not to let confidence erode some more as to spark private/foreigner selling of assets and intensified capital flight.

and that can only be achieved by the world seeing good governance, honesty and integrity.

now, that is not forthcoming, is it?!

like i said (or joke), do some major shopping now!

looking at the prices of the restaurant and grocery store last 2 days, some prices have already been revised up.

100% imported stuff even with zero gst like aussie beef already up 15%.

a lot more to come.

in the baht crisis of 1997, it wasn't just the liquid assets but the hard ones too - buildings, land, factories, whole biz.

it was after the crisis that many MNC's in emerging markets no longer want to own buildings and land but just rent.

this time, here... may be more stable - less of that plus china is likely to hold on to what it paid for recently or going to pay.



ASX... not sure if i read correctly..?.. in one recent bloomberg report, it cited even bumis are now selling - to cope with rising cost of living and debt. do google...

u don't see it?!