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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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Cubalagi
post Dec 17 2022, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Dec 16 2022, 02:15 AM)

General market down more than 10% this year.
Parking money in fixed deposits (US CDs now yield > 4%) is safer than stocks now.  dry.gif
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We have moved from TINA but stocks to TARA.
Cubalagi
post Dec 17 2022, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Dec 17 2022, 10:53 AM)
We have moved from TINA but stocks to TARA.
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There Are Reasonable Alternatives

Eg CDs at 4%
Cubalagi
post Dec 20 2022, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(RiriRuruRara @ Dec 20 2022, 04:21 PM)
On today trending I see Bank of Japan did something and I see many people are acting like this is the end of the world? Can someone explain what happened to me bcs I don't really understand what's going on?
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BoJ suddenly increase their bond interest rate after months of saying no. This causes bond rates in other markets also to jump.

Higher interest rate means tighter money supply, causing share markets to drop.

Not really the end of the world though.




Cubalagi
post Jan 2 2023, 07:21 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jan 2 2023, 12:07 PM)
What goes up must come down.

Just did a quick consolidated net worth calculation across my portfolio.

Im down 43% for this year, compared to dec 2021 close. Most of my holdings are tech and growth so not surprising there.

Hope 2023 will be better.
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Thanks for sharing. Hope you learned a lesson or two and that your portfolio size is not too big.

I recall that 2021 you were big in China tech, got hit by their sell off and diversified into US tech n now got hit there as well.

So all the best for 2023!

P/s there is a risk of further downside in tech since.Powel wants to push US Fed rate to 5% and hold it there.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jan 2 2023, 07:22 PM
Cubalagi
post Jan 2 2023, 09:47 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jan 2 2023, 08:40 PM)
its actually not that bad from what it sounds. I basically ride it up and ride it down cause im counting on an overall networth pov.

My capital is still intact but many of the paper gain has evaporated.
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Any lessons learned?

Cubalagi
post Jan 3 2023, 09:01 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Jan 3 2023, 04:36 PM)
Fuyoh... CL.....

And how are we today.
Miss me? Maybe a little tiny bit?

laugh.gif
This game better learn to know where the sell button is. biggrin.gif

Play Bursa stocks good enough la. If Bursa cannot make money, there is no guarantee one will make money in other markets. whistling.gif

Lastly... why need to wait till new year to reflect on how one is doing? Shouldn't one be going this more regularly? Reviews is needed more regularly.
Woi.. where is my tipsy? biggrin.gif
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Cubalagi
post Jan 4 2023, 11:11 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jan 4 2023, 12:09 AM)
Yes i am. Lets see what the future holds
Not sure yet. Keep on learning each cycle. The market is truly interesting.

Last round i sold too early and miss out on life changing returns while this round i kept my position through it all, so testing see which theory have better long term result.

Will add those into my β€œrules” once my investment has run their due course.
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Both macam salah. The adage is let winners run, cut losers. U macam doing the opposite. Not easy to practice I admit.

Now I dont really know your portfolio, but i recall you were big on Baba, Tencent, Google. U like big tech probably because you believe u have some insights and these are very amazing companies.

My own 2 sen thoughts on lessons that can be learned and also reminder to self.

1. Price is very important, doesnt matter how good the company is. Like Buffet advice, buy good companies at fair price. What is fair price is very subjective but when a stock is very popular, need to be extra careful.

2. Expand beyond tech..dont be a one trick pony. 2022 was tough but there were still some places to make money if you still want to invest. Need to be more agile.

3. Always be aware of the macro environment. Some environments need to be extra careful, maybe need to reduce exposure.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jan 4 2023, 11:26 AM
Cubalagi
post Jan 5 2023, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jan 5 2023, 10:59 AM)
You know, I think the bulls are too eager for a rate cut.. we haven't even gone a month where the Fed would at least hold it steady while we wait for better data. 

Last month we got 50bps, heck at least wait for Fed will slow it down to 25bps first..

Maybe Fed should spike another 50bps to make the Bulls puke out more when it sees another couple of points ticked up in inflation due to high demand of goods/services again in December.  devil.gif
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50 bps..Im actually starting to think that will happen early Feb. Market is challenging Fed, so the Fed will now have to show who is boss.


Cubalagi
post Jan 6 2023, 09:56 AM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Jan 6 2023, 08:49 AM)
Your wish might come true. biggrin.gif

Sometimes I feel farking funny that low unemployment is a bad news and for the market. The world is crazy.  rclxub.gif
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Its because the US market is hooked on cheap money, like a drug addict.

Cubalagi
post Jan 6 2023, 02:50 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Jan 6 2023, 12:44 PM)
Well,  unfortunately, I think cheap money has disappeared for now since Fed raised rates last year from 0.25% to 4.25% now.  Market better focus on earnings for this year.

Fed is focused on employment rate now and the employment rate is still very good in US (back to pre-pandemic) despite some major layoffs from tech giants like Tesla, Twitter, Facebook(meta) and now Amazon.  But, that's just Tech. Everywhere else, demands still quite good, F&B, real-estates, healthcare, manufacturing, etc
There are almost 2 jobs available for every qualified candidates.  The employers aren't bidding up the wages anymore but wages are still very attractive.  Most US tech workers can live like King if they get similar pay in Malaysia.

I think US Fed will likely continue to hike till around 5%~5.25% (just 2 more 50bps) or the CPI gets below 6%. Maybe there will be cross-over between the Fed fund rates and CPI. This will be interesting to watch.  nod.gif
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Fed is more focused on Core CPI/Core PCE rather than the overall CPI. That is what they want to push to 2%. Core PCE was at 4.7% in November. The Dec one will be released end of this month. If they hike at next FOMC, I wont be suprised if the crossover happen by the 1st Quarter this year.


Cubalagi
post Jan 9 2023, 10:25 PM

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QUOTE(Peenix99 @ Jan 9 2023, 02:57 PM)
Lets get on the feds side and position ourselves accordingly.

Or position yourself in sectors that benefit from this policy.
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Market is now playing chicken with the Fed.

CPI release date 12 Jan 2023 is something to watch out for.



Cubalagi
post Jan 22 2023, 08:28 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Jan 20 2023, 07:44 PM)
As for 25bsp, i think the terminal rate is important and i think they will loosen the grip abit to try for the best scenario which is a soft landing while keep inflation in check.

As for the debt ceiling, yeah planning to prepare some money to enter.  The last round during the 2011 crisis i think S&P lost around 15%, which is quite a good discount considering everything in hindsight.
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The debt ceiling is actually a short term positive for the market, unless of course the US actually defaults in June. This is because US has to inject liqudity in the system, cancelling QT.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds...ver-2023-01-19/


Cubalagi
post Jan 22 2023, 06:58 PM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jan 22 2023, 03:11 PM)
I always dca monthly.

So not too worried.

πŸ‘€πŸΏπŸ·
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What do you DCA monthly in?

Cubalagi
post Jan 24 2023, 12:27 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Jan 24 2023, 09:41 AM)
Keep on rally like this, Powell will come with a cane.  sweat.gif
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It will still be 25bps hike, but he will talk tough.

Cubalagi
post Jan 24 2023, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Jan 24 2023, 10:32 PM)
Wow what happened to US markets. So many stocks halted trading...

Extreme movements... Visa shot up. Mastercard and Nike plunged... TSMC, Unilever and Novo Nordisk ADR also halted...

Erratic movements. Must be the quant traders and algos good work... laugh.gif

EDIT: Stocks released from halt. Back to normal pricing.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/24/many-new-yo...ical-issue.html
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Shoplot stock exchange πŸ˜†

Cubalagi
post Jan 26 2023, 08:50 AM

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QUOTE(Tanchunhao92 @ Jan 25 2023, 11:20 PM)
The USD exchange rate has been crazy recently, unfortunately my average cost to exchange USD is relatively high as I only entered in recent years. I only buy index fund but yikes it is still painful to look at. The market need to have outstanding performance to compensate the loss from foreign exchange, then it will only generate a meaningful return.

Anyone mind sharing your experience on the impact of foreign exchange rate on your portfolio?
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Glass is half full. You can actually get more index fund for the same MYR now.

Btw currency risk is part and parcel of investing offshore. Sometimes you benefit n sometimes u lose. If you are a more active investor, you can somewhat manage it, but then you need to expand your tools beyond broad based US heavy equity index funds.



Cubalagi
post Jan 29 2023, 10:27 AM

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QUOTE(RiriRuruRara @ Jan 29 2023, 05:49 AM)
congrats and well done. So far all my shares I'm holding never experience any of this crazy gap up. cry.gif
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Congrats to u then

This sort of violent upward swings is very common for stocks which have been battered down.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Jan 29 2023, 10:27 AM
Cubalagi
post Jan 29 2023, 12:56 PM

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QUOTE(adam1190 @ Jan 27 2023, 04:21 PM)
is the rising oil prices a cause of concern where inflation will remain high?
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Current level is still much lower than the peak in March n April last year. It will only be a problem if it starts reaching those levels again.



Cubalagi
post Feb 14 2023, 01:26 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 14 2023, 01:18 PM)
Hoping for a higher than 6.5 CPI reading, so that we can get more cheap shares... 😈
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Haha..

Higher for longer..that will really screw up the party.
Cubalagi
post Feb 17 2023, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 17 2023, 11:09 PM)
It's finally pulling back..I guess no bulls want to park their money over the long weekend.

General market now pulling back down since the last CPI announcement. It's been quite resilient sucking all the FOMO money in.
But, I don't think it's enough yet.

Need to see another 5~10% down till next month numbers before the FOMC meeting again.

I want to see if Fed will still go with 25bps or perhaps even... 50bps to shock 'em.  devil.gif
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I want to see Oct 22 lows again


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