Even last night can see Fed seriousness goyang already.

Just early this month, Powel was talking tough like want to hike 50bps. Now only do 25bps.

Can, if it can cause a financial crisis and deep recession.

European banks are very red today.

Financial crisis continuing?

They can try things like reduce govt spending

Or maybe push for less conflict?

But I guess these are impossible

Small position only

Waiting for recession.

No, u misunderstand.

I would prefer a bigger position. But Im currently holding a small position because scared of recession. Waiting for better entry time to add more.

The biggest threat is the war expanding.eg use of nukes or China got involved.


This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Apr 6 2023, 08:02 AM

Many people thought that Russia wouldnt be stupid enough to attack Ukraine too.

And who would imagine governments doing a lockdown in 2020? Whole world economy did go haywire.

They will also not hesitate to go to war if some red line has been crossed.

Higher risk higher returns. AT1 bonds were giving attractive interest rates.

And now after this CS default, even more attractive. Eg HSBC USD AT1 now is yielding10.xx % pa. I think it peaked at 13% last month. Very tempting.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Apr 12 2023, 03:54 PM

Whats a cassandra bet?

Ooo..meaning I hv been a cassandra since last year. 😉 About the time Putin invaded last year.

Already breach..so u buy?

US mortgage rate now at 7.63%.



The reason why US housing market hasnt collpased is that most ppl have these 30 year fixed interest mortgages and have locked in at lower rates during the last 10+ years.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Oct 21 2023, 09:29 AM

I will wait for bad news to be bad news before piling in.

I dont think there is much train to miss.

Not when I can get 5% interest in USD deposits.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Nov 5 2023, 03:21 PM

I dont really care about Nov 22 to now.

I more interested in now to Nov 2024. If u can tell me the stock market return for that period I much appreciate.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Nov 6 2023, 04:47 PM

Thats why i prefer money market than FD..can liquidate anytime.

Thats the risk Im accepting. If Im wrong, I will earn "only" 5% or so. If Im right, I will be able to buy stocks cheaper (hopefully much cheaper) than what they are now.

Just to be clear, I do have equities exposure now, only its much smaller. I didnt buy any stocks this year, only sold some. If there is a Christmas/NY rally, I likely will sell a bit more. Last time I bought any was in Sept 22, but I already started to be more defensive even earlier, when the Ukr war started.

China strikes back

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/china-to-im...rom-the-us.html

So far EU and UK still 🐔