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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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Cubalagi
post Apr 4 2025, 08:56 PM

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QUOTE(Wedchar2912 @ Apr 4 2025, 08:19 PM)
i thought the silly EU EC President claimed will retaliate kau kau also?
already chicken out?
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EU still just talk only
Cubalagi
post Apr 9 2025, 03:49 PM

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QUOTE(poooky @ Mar 11 2025, 11:13 AM)
Why VOO over CSPX/VUAA/SPYL? I thought VOO less efficiently given withholding tax.

And why buy QQQM if already holding VOO? don't the overlap?

Otherwise, I am hoping for at least a 20% - 40% correction. The time to deploy dry powder is approaching.
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20% down from? Peak? Yesterday? 😓
Cubalagi
post Apr 9 2025, 03:50 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 9 2025, 10:57 AM)
It is very strange. Suppose to be traders buying bonds when they sell equities but they're selling bonds as well,
causing yield to rise. Where are they putting the money? Cash only?  hmm.gif
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Selling USD move to other currencies/market. Look at EUD.

Probably China also selling their big US holdings?
Cubalagi
post Apr 9 2025, 06:19 PM

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QUOTE(koja6049 @ Apr 9 2025, 05:56 PM)
how can you bar people from selling in an open market? china can sell it to other countries. Unless US wants to scrutinize every transaction and impose sanctions on countries who buy US bonds from china  biggrin.gif
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Can..freeze it like they did to the Russians.
Cubalagi
post Apr 9 2025, 06:25 PM

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QUOTE(koja6049 @ Apr 9 2025, 06:25 PM)
if they are deposited in a US account, then yes  smile.gif
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Its US Treasuries..custodian will be US banks.
Cubalagi
post Apr 9 2025, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(koja6049 @ Apr 9 2025, 06:31 PM)
that's why i say, if they want to check every transaction. Those bonds don't have the name "China" printed as the owner. It's usually held in trust by companies, even overseas ones
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They dont need to check every transaction, just every account. Easy to do. All China related accounts will be frozen. If dont fo, bankers will go to jail.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Apr 9 2025, 08:17 PM
Cubalagi
post Apr 10 2025, 10:16 AM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 10 2025, 08:42 AM)
1st time see a high recovery in my portfolio. Crazy.

But miss the ETF buying. I thought it would go down to 4600-4800.  sad.gif
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Its normal in bear market to have violent rebound. Remember covid days?

But my take is that its still not over. Bottom is still ahead. Patience.
Cubalagi
post Apr 11 2025, 06:25 PM

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China increase tariff and now potential delistings of Chinese ADRs!!

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Apr 11 2025, 06:25 PM
Cubalagi
post Apr 11 2025, 10:18 PM

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Weird things are happening.

US recent CPI is down, but US interest rates are going up. It should be going down. The spike in interest rate was reported as what made Trump semi U turn.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/business/bon...ates/index.html

The US bond market is acting up again today.

And US interest rates going up, should normally make USD go up. But instead USD is dropping. Not vs MYR which is an emerging market currency. But other developed market currencies. Check.the DXY.

user posted image
Cubalagi
post Apr 11 2025, 10:31 PM

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QUOTE(ipohps3 @ Apr 11 2025, 10:20 PM)
what does it mean ?
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It could.mean foreign governments are selling US bonds, which push price down. Bond price down means interest rate up. They then sell the USD proceeds to other currencies. This will push USD down.

Thats my speculation. Is this the start of the end of US reserve currency status?

I hv also read that this is tell tale signs of a financial crisis.
Cubalagi
post Apr 12 2025, 09:42 PM

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Trump exempts phones, computers and chips from tariffs.
Cubalagi
post Apr 12 2025, 11:46 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Apr 12 2025, 11:03 PM)
Play by ear policy from US, rife with possible insider trading and manipulation.

Better just buy vix or to avoid the market all together for now.
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Can do some short term trading Monday, US and even some Bursa Malaysia ones.
Cubalagi
post Apr 13 2025, 04:27 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Apr 13 2025, 03:39 PM)
Good for u, saya baca apa pun tak faham, hehe. Options?
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Closest is Structured Warrants but without the time value.

Or one of those 3x Leverage ETF,.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Apr 13 2025, 04:29 PM
Cubalagi
post Apr 13 2025, 05:34 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Apr 13 2025, 04:52 PM)
I think these two instruments need to depend on the general mkt to provide the liquidity. But DLCs have the 'issuer' too providing the liquidity, hence, the spread will not be too big.
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Its the same bro..structured warrants and etfs have market makers too. Big etfs even have many market makers.
Cubalagi
post Apr 13 2025, 05:44 PM

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Have to watch US bond market yield closely. everytime the 10 year hit 4.5%, this week were on Wednesday and then Friday, Trump made a significant U turns.

I think if 10 year hit 5%, its SHTF time.




Cubalagi
post Apr 14 2025, 09:24 PM

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QUOTE(solstice818 @ Apr 14 2025, 02:00 PM)
Read news it's temporary exemption? Which is which? So confusing.
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Temporary as Trump tweeted over the weekend.

But markets not believing him..
Cubalagi
post Oct 11 2025, 08:45 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Oct 10 2025, 06:30 PM)
Both serve different purpose. As a general safer all rounder VOO is better for DCA and put and forget. Whereas QQQ is more focus on wealth accumulation

Imagine you are in your 60s, your goal is financial preservation rather growth. Are you able to handle a possible 70% ETF drawdown that required 10+ years to recover ? So there is no perfect answer, but i would say S&P500 is the more safer all weather choice
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If QQQ is down 70%, then SPX should be down at least 50%. Not that much safer.
Cubalagi
post Oct 12 2025, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Oct 12 2025, 07:18 AM)
Trump is the person to bring down prices. Go trump.
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Hopefully he will be too busy with the Middleast tomorrow and not TACO too soon.
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