Provided u have enough cash n the guts to enter when the bear come.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: Mar 23 2022, 02:05 PM

I didn't say stay out the market.

But Fed tightening usually end in bad crashes, sooner or later. But the S&P could still rally higher before it breaks.

I said don't be complacent n have some plan in place to minimize damage n to take advantage of big crash.

MM can arbitrage a few ways.

One way is using the ETF primary market, as all ETFs are convertible to underlying shares of the index, and vice-versa.

Recessions are a great way to make outsized returns for your investment if you are ready for it.

Yes..

Another one is if u believe in that "time in market" thing and is fully invested in equities when recession starts.

QT starting next month, another planned 50 bps hike n to be followed by another in end July.

Not the time to be bullish. I will.use any strong rally to de-risk further.

US CPI inflation data is due tomorrow. If it shows signs that CPI is peaking, then we could get a relief rally.

At current levels, where the whole market seem oversold, I will stay put.

But I will only average down if I have strong conviction on the stock.

I still do Bursa Malaysia stocks...so far only place I can get multibaggers..doesn't really matter if MYR drop 5-6% a year, if can profit 100%.

But if it's index, no. Avoid Klci or it's MSCi equivalent, EWM.

Last week
Serba 0.06. Today hit 0.2.
Sapura Energy 0.04. Today 0.08

😂

If u want to go FA example

Hibiscus.
17/5/2021: RM0.645
17/5/2022: RM1.46

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: May 17 2022, 02:15 PM

In Bursa, I'm more comfortable to do hit n run trades, as being local I have a better sense of the background. Even in the case of longer term fundamental investing, it's not impossible to find the hidden gems once a while in Bursa. It's harder for the typical large US stocks as they would be covered by dozens of analysts.

One can make (and lose) money in any markets. However US market has been easier due to the massive liquidity injection. But, it's been less easy recently n likely will continue to be so for a while.

I'm expecting a July pause. Probably a u turn in Spt or November

China tech investor knows the feeling too well.. 😉

Don't forget QT starting next week.

https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-qt-pl...now-2022-04-06/

Don't fight the Fed

To be One with the Fed, u should short the rebounds.

Once we peg, there will be capital controls. U will find it hard to convert RM to dollars.

Also likely harder access to IBKR and funds that invest overseas and the like.

I hope we don't have peg.

To maintain the peg (assuming it's a high peg n not say peg 1USD to MYR5.50), BNM will need either to have a few hundred billion USD,, which it doesn't have, or impose capital controls.

Capital control means making it very hard for you to exchange MYR to other currencies..SGD, USD, crypto whatever.

This post has been edited by Cubalagi: May 28 2022, 11:21 PM

I think "market timing iis mpossible" is a myth perpetuated by asset managers who want to keep their AUM based management fees.

For marker timing to work, one does not need to perfectly time the bottom or the top. One doesn't have to be accurate all the time as well.

For me the most important thing for market timing is to avoid the worst impact of big drawdowns (negative performance). Big drawdowns have very severe impact to long term portfolio building.

Like a 50% loss requires a 100% gain to recover and how long will that take?

It's probably ok for a young investor with not much assets to lose say 40-50% of his portfolio. But it's definitely fatal for more uncle investors.