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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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SUSxander2k8
post Mar 13 2023, 01:45 AM

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QUOTE(RiriRuruRara @ Mar 12 2023, 08:02 PM)
currently down over 10% in google if Tuesday more bad news and market go down more, I think just going cut lost and give up.
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Just hold for long term 🤦‍♀️

I even bought Tesla recently when it was it dropped almost 1/3 and still managed to make a good profit after manage to sell at 200+

Sometimes don’t let the red go over your head just because you can’t stand it

QUOTE(ozak @ Mar 13 2023, 01:02 AM)
That is fast. Back to normal.


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Not fast as it FDIC have to do quickly in order to stabilise the market and avoid a windup as it will affect California economy 🤦‍♀️

SUSxander2k8
post Mar 13 2023, 11:34 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Mar 13 2023, 05:49 AM)
California should have bank holiday on Monday.
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Not possible as business as usual

QUOTE(dwRK @ Mar 13 2023, 07:49 AM)
bank run for sure tonight...

Feds no bail out for svb... svb bank run caused by hedge fund... haiz..
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No more bank runs when FDIC take over quickly 🤦‍♀️

QUOTE(adam1190 @ Mar 13 2023, 08:51 AM)
will depend on CPI data tomorrow to determine the market direction...
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Told you weeks before on that when next week meeting hinges on 3 things 🤦‍♀️

QUOTE(ozak @ Mar 13 2023, 09:04 AM)
Why the FED no ball?

Kill the bank and hundred of hundred venture companies die. Unemployment rises faster.

Inflation is down fast, Jpowell's mission accomplishes, the interest rate hike stops and the market is green again.

Ain't it perfect?
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Are you crazy? 🤦‍♀️ There is no guarantee that will work and you just kill the entire global economy as every global hinges on the USD

Even NZ and Australia start raising rates earlier and yet inflation is at 7% range 🤦‍♀️

If you are the Fed voting member the entire world will start world war 3 🤦‍♀️
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 13 2023, 07:12 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Mar 13 2023, 04:11 PM)
The bank has money. But no cash.
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Yes even their UK subsidiary is the same but it is profitable asset they are holding

QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 13 2023, 05:20 PM)
Monetary policy take a few months to see the effect.
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Doesn’t matter if the message is consistent

QUOTE(swiss228 @ Mar 13 2023, 05:34 PM)
US futures have a strong rebound this morning, but now all negative. US mkts open today at 9.30 pm (daylight saving hrs), should be interesting. Maybe today will give a good opportunity for those who wish to "buy the dip". Get your money ready!
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Wait because even if you buy at opening you already missed out on the gains compared to those who bought on Friday 🤦‍♀️
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 13 2023, 07:53 PM

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QUOTE(swiss228 @ Mar 13 2023, 07:47 PM)
I think there will be another dip today, may be even more compared to  Friday's : and the drop will most likely be greatest at the end of the day.
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Opening will be great but the dip should not be as great as Friday 🤦‍♀️
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 14 2023, 01:44 AM

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QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 13 2023, 09:26 PM)
Some other regional banks under pressure.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/13/first-repub...ks-decline.html

Depositor bailouts for those as well?

Whats the point then for FDiC USD250k limit.? Just say all deposits in US banks will be guaranteed 😆
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The point is the liquidity stays flow to depositors while the asset holders will bear the losses 🤦‍♀️

Hence depositors still the get money while stockholders will bear the losses

But not true for SVB UK case as the stockholders will get bonus payout for the asset being sold which more than the deposit itself
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 14 2023, 05:42 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Mar 14 2023, 04:23 AM)
Please place your bets:

QE or Rate hike?  laugh.gif
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Hike 3 more times with 25bps for 2023 and the followed with 50bps cut on March 2024 meeting
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 14 2023, 10:23 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Mar 14 2023, 06:04 AM)
Then 20 smaller banks may tank.  laugh.gif
And gold will hit $2,500  laugh.gif
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Unlikely 🤦‍♀️ scenario

Gold to hit 2100 is so difficult unless the war went sideways from now
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 14 2023, 05:54 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 14 2023, 04:52 PM)
... but buying long term T-bonds something that's approved/recommended ?
wink.gif
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Only if you have the asset or liquidity to back it

QUOTE(adam1190 @ Mar 14 2023, 05:10 PM)
Don’t understand why other countries market fall so badly even though US market doesn’t drop much..
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US drop since Thursday while the other markets only started only catch up yesterday 🤦‍♀️
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 15 2023, 12:45 PM

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QUOTE(giftfre @ Mar 15 2023, 08:57 AM)
I believe SVB and Signature Bank are not the only two bank in the hardship situation. There are many medium size financial/ investment company may be can't hold on any longer. The main concern is how many of them in same situation. No one know but only can wait them to declare.
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You should be more worried as the big boys have too much excess liquidity coming from the bank run of those regional and small size banks

It is not about the asset but the actual liquidity required now instantly when that happens 🤦‍♀️ as SVB shortfall is just little and they so happens fail to raise it at the wrong time
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 15 2023, 05:42 PM

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QUOTE(annoymous1234 @ Mar 15 2023, 05:10 PM)
Did anyone bought meta when it was below 90?
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I bought a very small sum during early Nov thinking it will go lower 🤦‍♀️
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 16 2023, 04:15 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Mar 15 2023, 10:56 PM)
Yesterday, all is calm after Fed said depositors will be able to get their money and risk on mode and expected CPI number.
Now, Credit Suisse is in trouble. One by one, these banks are showing their weak hands and investors are fleeing.
I think contagion is just starting..

Furthermore, inflation rate is still high (>6%) albeit at slower rate and US Fed still wants to target 2% rate. Still got long way to go.

US Fixed Deposits (aka CDs) now at 5.25% for 12-18 months. Better than many risky equities now.
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It will take at least a decade to bring down inflation to 2% as Greenspan has done it before as it took 7 years just to bring it down to 3% 🤦‍♀️

Rates will still be high at least 4% for some time at least in this decade
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 16 2023, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 16 2023, 09:11 AM)
so many articles flying around talking about SVB.... most trying to lay the blame... and as usual, why couldn't the auditors see the warning flags? why did shoplot give SVB a clean bill of health just before SVB kaput?

here's from a shortie pov..

https://fortune.com/2023/03/10/silicon-vall...ller-red-flags/

or https://news.yahoo.com/silicon-valley-bank-...VYZTaavC5zmBWMs

same article except the fortune article needs $$ ( tongue.gif )
.... yeah .... what about the Fed?
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The shop lot auditor was given different set of books with different assets holdings 🤦‍♀️

Same thing again repeating itself just like 1MDB 🤦‍♀️
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 16 2023, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 16 2023, 10:57 AM)
Given a series of missteps by credit suisse, credit suisse is unlikely to survive in current form.
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Their investment arm has dragged them to the mud with all the missteps back to a decade ago 🤦‍♀️

Share price is back at the levels since early 2000s
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 16 2023, 12:59 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Mar 16 2023, 11:21 AM)
Exiting investment business is almost unavoidable.
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Which is why like Citigroup they have the learn the lesson very well

Split and sell off consumer banking units which is less profitable and concentrating investment units

For CS now the danger lies in consumer banking unless the segregation of funds is done which I highly doubt and even SNB is not involved until CS contacted them for a backstop loan to ride them through this period
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 16 2023, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(ivanpei @ Mar 16 2023, 02:52 PM)
So tonight more blood for finance stocks? Also META/SNAP moon tonight because TikTok ban news again? Thinking tonight to take some META profit and move to banking.
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Not so soon yet wait after next week after Fed annoucements
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 17 2023, 04:51 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Mar 16 2023, 11:07 PM)
WSJ NEWS EXCLUSIVE: FINANCE

JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Others in Talks to Bolster First Republic Bank
Potential options include a capital raise that could take various forms

https://www.wsj.com/articles/jpmorgan-morga...share_permalink

----------------------

Sources mentioned that BNP Paribas has informed its customers that it will no longer entertain any customer's request to be a counterparty in derivative contracts renewal with Credit Suisse as the other counterparty.

Source: https://www.sinchew.com.my/?p=4543468 (scroll to bottom)
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Basically FIDC forced the big banks in America to inject liquidity into FRC

Just like what will happen in Malaysia whereby PIDM will forced other bank members to inject liquidity once RRR has been finished by the default bank 🤦‍♀️

SUSxander2k8
post Mar 17 2023, 08:35 AM

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QUOTE(adam1190 @ Mar 17 2023, 06:08 AM)
seems like a bull market incoming again..
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Still too early 🤦‍♀️ wait after Fed announcement then only the window will open until May


SUSxander2k8
post Mar 17 2023, 08:44 AM

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QUOTE(adam1190 @ Mar 17 2023, 08:40 AM)
inflation will highly likely drop again next month, market gonna price that hike is at peak and tech stock will rise again lifting the S&P 500
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Don’t be so optimistic inflation didn’t even drop at all 🤦‍♀️

Headline CPI is still at 6 range as haven’t been break below 6 for more than a year as the hike is still ongoing until it hits 5.5% then only you will think it is peak 🤦‍♀️

The conditions will start changing when CPI and interest rate is gap is closer by 1% range otherwise the wider the gap inflation is still roaring unless it goes down to 5.4% come summer

Tech stocks will start correcting slowly because of oversold and overbought conditions lately

This post has been edited by xander2k8: Mar 17 2023, 08:52 AM
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 17 2023, 12:01 PM

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QUOTE(square2 @ Mar 17 2023, 11:38 AM)
high chance of default bro sweat.gif
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As long as it is not corporate bonds

If investment grade should be low enough the risks but govt back treasuries is preferred
SUSxander2k8
post Mar 17 2023, 05:47 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 17 2023, 01:27 PM)
Yes bros,... you guys said everything I wanted to say,  biggrin.gif ... IG bonds, govt-issued bonds, short-dated,...

But that's what that presenter said.

For myself : Bonds (the safer ones) returns can't match inflation,... and has NO capital appreciation. I'm still for dividend stocks and SG REITs.
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Only good for short rotation play while waiting for to rotate back to dividends and REITs

QUOTE(Cubalagi @ Mar 17 2023, 01:30 PM)
Thats why u hold it for short term to sit through the recession.

Then buy your reits n divvy stocks cheap.
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Yea rotational play 👏

QUOTE(Hansel @ Mar 17 2023, 01:35 PM)
Yeah,... I'm still loading-up on the abovesaid regularly. Eg, for MINT, the moment it goes below my hldg price, I'll buy a certain number. Problem with you first sentence is : we can never time properly,... when the recession will start and end.

...And when will we need to extract and put into the 'risk-on' instruments....
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No one is has the timing good we just to enter at the appropriate time will do 👏

QUOTE(Boon3 @ Mar 17 2023, 01:50 PM)
So now Cowboy 30 year bills is bad.
But are those 2 year bills (bought at the same time as those 30 year bills) any safer?

What long term bonds were SVB holding?
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20 year T Bills

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