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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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xander2k8
post Jan 28 2023, 03:25 AM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Jan 27 2023, 09:45 PM)
Pssstt…..
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You mean WSJ?

QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Jan 27 2023, 11:43 PM)
Ah shiatsu.

Means already priced in. No wonder it spike now..

😩
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Told you priced in earlier 🤦‍♀️

Just be prepared next week for CPI 1st then you will see whether 50bps in play or not

QUOTE(ozak @ Jan 28 2023, 12:38 AM)
See Tsla. Crazy pop and cont up.
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Yeah crazy I bought at 120 and thinking it will take 6 months to hit my TP 🤦‍♀️

QUOTE(bcombat @ Jan 28 2023, 02:25 AM)
Meta worst has over?
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Unless Zuck keep on hyping on MetaVerse 🤦‍♀️

Wait for Apple on their new headset soon and then Meta even pop more 👏

xander2k8
post Jan 29 2023, 05:12 AM

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QUOTE(adam1190 @ Jan 28 2023, 10:11 AM)
Next week got what CPI data?
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Sorry my bad it is PPI data 🤦‍♀️

CPI falls on V day 😂


QUOTE(RiriRuruRara @ Jan 28 2023, 07:20 PM)
are you still holding Tesla now or already sold it ??
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Trim some for profit while holding the rest for long term TP
xander2k8
post Jan 29 2023, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(RiriRuruRara @ Jan 29 2023, 05:49 AM)
congrats and well done. So far all my shares I'm holding never experience any of this crazy gap up. cry.gif
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Tesla is nothing

I got bought before where I doubled the money within the week that one is more emotional roller coaster 🤦‍♀️

And I can tell you that this share is not GameStop and not even related reddit or meme thread

If you wanna buy Tesla learn for long term and trim whenever you can to lock in the profits

Otherwise buy quality and index funds and you can sleep well at night 😀
xander2k8
post Jan 29 2023, 10:42 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 29 2023, 07:52 PM)
The trick is buy when it's down. Majority of people scared to buy when it's down. If you want to ride the wave up. You need to buy when it's down. If it's down more, and if the drop is significant like 10%, just buy more. If it's like 1-2% drop, don't bother.
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Agreed which is why buy quality when it’s deep down

Apple would be a good example given at 120+ a lot of ppl said I am silly to buy it when now it is still holding

That is why to those Tesla understand the business and quality before judging it because companies will have demand no matter what and they have pricing power to run it up
xander2k8
post Jan 30 2023, 02:39 PM

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QUOTE(bcombat @ Jan 30 2023, 11:44 AM)
user posted image
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Friday will be a big day 👏
xander2k8
post Jan 31 2023, 01:29 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Jan 31 2023, 12:30 PM)
Why Alibaba want to move its HQ to SG?

Feel like Alibaba going to RIP.
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Uncle Ma worried about Xi now since CCP will start owning golden shares in Baba 🤦‍♀️

He is smart because he can divert the Baba holdings in China to CCP while starting a new company outside of China with his branding
xander2k8
post Feb 2 2023, 03:29 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 2 2023, 03:26 AM)
Another 25bps... we're at 4.5 to 4.75 Fed fund rates now.
I think this is it...for now.

Good to start buying US CDs (same as Fixed Deposits) for 1-2 years as fixed income.
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Won’t be so fast another at least 2 more hikes in place for the year 🤦‍♀️

Market already priced in 25bps this round a long time ago
xander2k8
post Feb 2 2023, 05:52 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 2 2023, 04:51 AM)
Probably... can start laddering some of them before the banks gets stingy again.

Surprisingly now, stocks today moved up on the news.
Bonds good, stocks good... too many places to put money to work.  biggrin.gif

2023 up nicely so far (from the beginning of the year). We're at the last June peak before it collapses.
Let see if it can break above it or not.
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Not suprising on the news and stocks up 🤦‍♀️ market already priced in since last Nov

Wait till March for resistance as it won’t break the peak from last year and we will be trading sideways until Jackson Hole
xander2k8
post Feb 2 2023, 01:32 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Feb 2 2023, 12:16 PM)
Maybe.. I think if we get to 5%, there may be a quick drop back down.

Today, Dollar drops against other currencies in lieu of the 25bps rate hike news, currency market smells the next move.. in anticipation of what's coming. I think Fed is going to pivot soon..

IMO, better lock in some of the high fixed rates now before it drops back down. 

Stock market definitely wanna moves back up and the major indexes are now back at the last June peak.
YTD gains now at 6%. Will target 10% to see what happens next.
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Unlike to pivot as Core CPI is still at 4% 🤦‍♀️

They will only pivot unless it falls below 3%

Historically like GFC terminal rate has to go up above 5% and then if recession at least the Fed has the ammo to fight it but with Core CPI and unemployment rate now in play their fight is tight now

I believe you’re too optimistic and you have already missed the dips during last Oct
xander2k8
post Feb 2 2023, 06:37 PM

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QUOTE(annoymous1234 @ Feb 2 2023, 05:05 PM)
Fear and greed index shows that we are almost5at extreme greed. As warren buffett says....
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Yes it will come to a head come March 👏

QUOTE(ozak @ Feb 2 2023, 05:51 PM)
This time Jpowell is tune down and no more hawkish.

No mention inflation cause by Ukraine war and brush of the employment up as "an indicator"

BBB
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Not tone down but more of reiterating the stance anything is possible with more rate rises and data dependant 🤦‍♀️

He didn’t mention the war but more Core CPI and Unemployment rate if the main indicators for any action he is going to take up so there is no brush up on employment numbers

Take the speech at face value and listen more on his reaction on the QA and release of the minutes of the meeting instead 🤦‍♀️
xander2k8
post Feb 3 2023, 04:05 AM

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QUOTE(sp3d2 @ Feb 2 2023, 10:58 PM)
Time to sell instead of buying.

It's a buy when it's cheap, not when it's going up.
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I am start to trimming now for March Madness 👏

Wait for March for more volatility and possible pick up for quality
xander2k8
post Feb 3 2023, 01:27 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Feb 3 2023, 08:01 AM)
Sell on strength and picked up sqqq. Big tech earnings confirm slow down is real.

Now last piece of the equation is cpi reports to complete the recession fears picture
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We are already in recession 🤦‍♀️ what you are talking about

It is the degree whether is mild or severe lasting more than a year

Slow down was happening in end of q3 yet you still ignorant

QUOTE(prophetjul @ Feb 3 2023, 09:21 AM)
What's happening in March?
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A lot of things will happen 🤦‍♀️

QUOTE(ozak @ Feb 3 2023, 09:34 AM)
$AAPL just killed the rally in tech.

But no matter how "bad" Apple reports, markets will find anyway to get it to recover and sound not as bad.
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It will recover slightly and then we will be trading sideways for the next 3 quarters

QUOTE(bcombat @ Feb 3 2023, 09:39 AM)
user posted image
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Head fake wait tomorrow 🤦‍♀️

QUOTE(james.6831 @ Feb 3 2023, 09:54 AM)
dca and chill throughout 2022, finally green in 2023 lmao but short lived, sure go down again...
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Don’t worry too much if you bought during Oct as my portfolio is still green

Start trimming wherever is green and hodl the rest 👏
xander2k8
post Feb 3 2023, 10:55 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Feb 3 2023, 09:00 PM)
Market has been pricing in a technical or soft landing recession. If you have follow their sentinment since the october lows, you probably able to ride the wave up till now no issues, almost like its ignoring the on the ground sentiment.

It will get much bumpier moving from here, to me yesterday was a good price point to enter sqqq. The end of q1 earning seasons and preparation for Q2.
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Wait March then you know why

We already in recession since last year just that the White House doesn’t spoil election sentiments then 🤦‍♀️

Yes it will get bumpier as more chances to enter now and it is still too early to enter SQQQ as Q2 will be even worse that was Q1 which are really mixed results from the earning s
xander2k8
post Feb 4 2023, 04:13 AM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Feb 3 2023, 11:07 PM)
Good news is bad news for market.  rclxub.gif

Employment strong. Recession? What recession ?

Indicates the Fed will hold harder for longer.
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Recession because of inflation and job wage growth is stagnant

Don’t look at the headline numbers but the details 🤦‍♀️

Wait next month data as it will be revised lower because this set of data seems miscalculated big time
xander2k8
post Feb 4 2023, 10:02 PM

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QUOTE(silverwave @ Feb 4 2023, 03:12 PM)
Is there potential for NVDA or should i just take the profit? It has gone up quite a lot in the last 1-2 months.
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Trim to take profits while the rest long hold because I doubt you are gonna get that price

Potential is there because AI Revolution has not started yet

QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 4 2023, 07:27 PM)
Emm,... I like your theory,...  hmm.gif

How are you able to hypothesize that this set of data (for December 2022) has been miscalculated ? What is your basis ?
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I haven’t deep dive yet but seasonally Dec numbers are inflated because of more part time employment due to holidays

Also the laid offs numbers haven’t been factored yet so March numbers are way more important and will be adjusted to follow accordingly as the employment numbers usually lag about 2 months behind the market actual employment
xander2k8
post Feb 6 2023, 06:50 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 6 2023, 06:34 PM)
Our discussion in the above is flawed. I shld not be talking abt December,.. shld be talking abt January numbers for additional jobs created under NFP. And the number for December was also under-reported,... it shld be 226k (if my memory serves me right),....
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December should be right with minor adjustment while the January numbers seems to be overcompensated for it 🤦‍♀️

Look at the wage growth itself because it is falling YoY which is why the markets is only priced in today hence it will be falling week this week

QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 6 2023, 06:35 PM)
So,.. the number of jobs created are flying.
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Not really flying because the recent reported laid offs haven’t been factored or priced in yet 🤦‍♀️
xander2k8
post Feb 8 2023, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Feb 8 2023, 07:23 PM)
Let's see then if they will adjust the January NFP numbers later,...
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Confirmed adjusting as you can see from the markets because they unconvinced with it

Most likely the numbers was inflated because Biden State Union address speech 🤦‍♀️
xander2k8
post Feb 9 2023, 05:52 PM

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QUOTE(Davidtcf @ Feb 9 2023, 01:50 PM)
stock buyback by Meta la.. sell while you can.
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Still too early to sell got another leg to go 🤦‍♀️

QUOTE(ozak @ Feb 9 2023, 03:34 PM)
Meta Q4 do improve in cash flow and 17% growth from the apps.

Meta up cause of the AI trend too.
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FCF and DAU is improving since the boycott has begun to subside

Anything with 2 in front it is time to sell
xander2k8
post Feb 10 2023, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Feb 10 2023, 09:33 AM)
Inaccurate Answer demo from AI can cause Googl stock to drop 8%.

The investor really sensetive to AI.  sweat.gif
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Coupled with Morgan Stanley analyst report saying as follows

every 10% shift of queries to AI-powered search, Google’s operating costs will go up $1.2 billion—shift 50% of queries over, he adds, and expenses grow $6 billion, trimming pretax profits by 6%. His view is that AI-powered queries will cost Alphabet about five times as much as the current approach.

Hence the initial investment cost and operating AI as not as cheap as they think 🤦‍♀️

You should see the look of the CEO during the launch and the press conference as well for his reaction


xander2k8
post Feb 14 2023, 03:16 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Feb 14 2023, 09:09 AM)
Yesterday green. Someone know the CPI number?
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Wait for the suprise tonight 🤦‍♀️

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