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 USA Stock Discussion v8, Brexit: What happens now?

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xander2k8
post Apr 7 2023, 03:06 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 7 2023, 02:09 PM)
Why sell early?

The stock starts to go up now. Thanks to AI competition hit up.
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Won’t be that easy because more legislation coming under Republicans 🤦‍♀️

It will start going down this year until after election to see whose in power then you only can decide
xander2k8
post Apr 12 2023, 11:55 AM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Apr 12 2023, 09:04 AM)
Pity the Asian rich.

WSJ MARKETS

Credit Suisse’s Risky-Bond Wipeout Hurts Asia’s Rich
Private bankers from UBS, other international banks had pushed AT1 securities to their wealthy clients

https://www.wsj.com/articles/credit-suisses...share_permalink

Yet another proof that private bankers job is to leech on your wealth, not to make you even richer laugh.gif
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A lot of Asian family offices took a beating from it thinking it was ultra safe 🤦‍♀️
xander2k8
post Apr 12 2023, 02:56 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 12 2023, 02:44 PM)
Is tonight going to be red after CPI?  hmm.gif

Almost $66b shorting the S&P500 by hedge funds. Something they know?
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Definitely red because late selling last night

They know that the numbers either is stagnant or inch up higher slightly but it will be 6 for sure
xander2k8
post Apr 12 2023, 03:27 PM

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QUOTE(adam1190 @ Apr 12 2023, 03:22 PM)
the forecast 5.1% to 5.3% by the wall street banks, unlikely it gonna be 6.. oil price has gone down a lot compared to a year ago..
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Look at the CPI YoY not the actual numbers Feb spike up 6% YoY 🤦‍♀️

Oil price has not go down as much because it is winter season now

Wait till summer when driving seasons start oil price will go back up thanks to OPEC cuts recently will only start to take effect come May 🤦‍♀️

Don’t be so happy yet because come next month another shock and awe coming soon by Powell if tonight numbers doesn’t have a reading that he wants
xander2k8
post Apr 12 2023, 09:17 PM

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QUOTE(adam1190 @ Apr 12 2023, 08:58 PM)
It only went up 5% yoy as oil price has fall rapidly compared to a year ago
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The 6% was Feb numbers I mentioned earlier 🤦‍♀️ 5% YoY is still high by all means because it is only cooled slightly

In fact oil prices has not fell rapidly as you think because new price hike haven’t factored in because of the low winter demands 🤦‍♀️ and it is lowered because Biden flushed down the price with SPR 🤦‍♀️

You will see oil price goes back up once SPR is need to be refilled coupled with summer driving seasons 🤦‍♀️
xander2k8
post Apr 12 2023, 09:18 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 12 2023, 08:59 PM)
CPI 5.0%!

Enjoy the rally.
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Market haven’t factored in PPI yet so don’t be so happy yet 🤦‍♀️

A 25bps is most likely next month and chances for a pause will be discussed by now
xander2k8
post Apr 13 2023, 02:42 AM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 12 2023, 10:56 PM)
Now I understand why the hedge funds short the S&P500.

Company going to report Q1 earning. Expecting result not good.

Brace for the impact.
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Yes earning season starting this Friday with major banks coming out

But the impact will be towards next month as it is good time now to pick up some defensive stocks now at good value
xander2k8
post Apr 14 2023, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(AthrunIJ @ Apr 14 2023, 08:52 AM)
Expecting bear instead of rally.

👀🍿🍷🤭
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Not yet started wait after next week once the early earnings results season disappoints

QUOTE(ozak @ Apr 14 2023, 08:55 AM)
The market still not back to its actual condition.

Good news is bad news.  rclxub.gif
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Yes and today is the start of earning seasons kickoff by major banks with next week very volatile coming with regional banks and the big tech week after next
xander2k8
post Apr 14 2023, 12:41 PM

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QUOTE(adam1190 @ Apr 14 2023, 12:37 PM)
any possibility that the the results will be good instead?
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Even results is good no point 🤦‍♀️ because the guidance is more important than quarterly results

Guidance is the expectation for future earnings more important than current earnings

Delta is already is showing bad results even for holiday season travel so more to come with bad results and high PE now
xander2k8
post Apr 14 2023, 05:40 PM

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QUOTE(wongkheong86 @ Apr 14 2023, 03:26 PM)
May I ask how to see whether how low CPI will rally or falling ?
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CPI is only part of the data

You need to look at retail sales to complete the picture whether US consumers is spending or not
xander2k8
post Apr 18 2023, 04:56 AM

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QUOTE(john123x @ Apr 17 2023, 08:04 PM)
google dropped 4% premarket.....
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Not suprising 🤦‍♀️ after the so called news
xander2k8
post Apr 18 2023, 07:23 PM

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QUOTE(TOS @ Apr 18 2023, 06:54 PM)
JNJ results: https://johnsonandjohnson.gcs-web.com/finan...arterly-results

FCF drops a lot and in GAAP lost on litigation matters.
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Expected waiting to pounce again at 155 level again while waiting for next year split up for gains 👏
xander2k8
post Apr 20 2023, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Apr 20 2023, 08:35 AM)
Tesla moving closer to an old automotive company metrics. Will need to see how they defend their market share later once novelty of electric car effect is gone.
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Tesla is also moving away from manufacturing cars already

They haven’t even started yet with battery pack and power generation units which is way more profitable

QUOTE(markedestiny @ Apr 20 2023, 10:22 AM)
Tesla, like all other tech companies have lofty valuations due to previous ZIRP, and now in the environment where  interest rate keep increasing, surely current prices don't hold...
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Which is way they are moving from cars to battery pack and power generation 🤦‍♀️

QUOTE(bcombat @ Apr 20 2023, 01:41 PM)
user posted image

worst seems to over? Market don’t seems to crash…with all the negative events (inflation, raising interest, recession etc …..

unless something unexpected come out
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Market now trading sideways until next Fed Meeting early May hence this few days will see saw till then
xander2k8
post Apr 21 2023, 11:18 PM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 21 2023, 10:36 PM)
I think it's time to sell into any rally again... before May comes around.  They gonna tank the market again with the debt crisis coming.  sweat.gif
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In fact it is the time to buy if you are in long term horizon 🤦‍♀️
xander2k8
post Apr 22 2023, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Apr 22 2023, 11:49 AM)
GOP in Congress could be irrational.
With many plc downsizing, consumers sentiment is expected to take a hit.
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As long as you are staying away or underweight from discretionary and cyclical sectors it will be fine

Look at Dr Horton you will be surprised how strong the economy is

Now it is great time as healthcare is undervalued while tech is undergoing correction soon to pick up good value in those stocks
xander2k8
post Apr 23 2023, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(Mattrock @ Apr 23 2023, 11:03 AM)
Anyone know how much withholding tax on dividends for German and Australian domiciled stocks on NYSE?
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As long as you trading in NYSE as in USD you are charged a 15% withholding tax, which can be offset by filing W8 Ben
form

If you wanna claim the tax you need to check with broker as some is willing to claim back on your behalf but it is not 100% back on the 15% WHT
xander2k8
post Apr 23 2023, 06:57 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Apr 23 2023, 06:02 PM)
you are wrong here...

w8ben tells the broker you are non resident alien... they then impose withholding tax on usa dividends... but some stuff are tax exempt so no wht... you gotta know what you buy...
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He is claiming back the WHT because he is foreign holding hence W8BEN need to be filed because how would IRS would know because WHT is charged upfront no matter what 🤦‍♀️

And these days not all retail exempt because IRS has been quite strict as this form also helps you claim a reduction or an exemption from the U.S. tax withholding if you reside in a country with which the United States has an income tax treaty and the income you received is subject to that treaty.

This post has been edited by xander2k8: Apr 23 2023, 07:01 PM
xander2k8
post Apr 23 2023, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(dwRK @ Apr 23 2023, 07:26 PM)
w8ben needs to be filled regardless when non resident alien opens any financial accounts in the US... this tells the broker how much wht to withheld which is anything from 0-30%...

he cannot claim back any of this 0-30% from the broker that is withheld because this should be per dta tax treaty usa signed...
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Some does it 🤦‍♀️ Even Stashaway for the following year but it is not the entire amount because expense needed to claim it back
xander2k8
post Apr 26 2023, 08:03 AM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Apr 26 2023, 07:53 AM)
Reversal on after hours. Strong earnings from tech to finance. Alphabet, Microsoft and Visa all beat their estimate and dint provide gloomy guidance.

Seemed like the economy is quite robust, even thought wallstreet is pricing more than a 50% chance of recession.
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Only temporary 🤦‍♀️ macro data not out yet this week wait for late week down fall 🤦‍♀️

QUOTE(TOS @ Apr 26 2023, 07:57 AM)
First Republic is in deep shit lol

Doesn't even want to take questions from analysts. laugh.gif

Plus US debt ceiling issue will put upward pressure on "supposedly" risk-free Treasury yields...
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More fights incoming now with debt ceiling fight in the house
xander2k8
post Apr 27 2023, 07:55 AM

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QUOTE(danmooncake @ Apr 26 2023, 10:26 PM)
Wow... carnage continues for FRC -70% in 3 days..
I think this is so undervalue now. Maybe a quick dead cat bounce play soon.  drool.gif
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Not so soon 🤦‍♀️ maybe in another months time

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