Shhhh.... don't kacau them la....


Me?

I use my SA

The bond market

Hahah habit already. Calling a spade for a spade.

Part of investing is to determined facts from fictions i thought.

Recently i have also been receiving calls from some group telling me they got proprietary trading system and buy/sell call that is able to generate very consistent returns with their algo. I just need to pay subscription fees.

in all honesty the market is on a random walk now.

The possibilities of Fed raise rate at the moment is next to none.

Yes in theory if interest rate went up there will be money flowing back to US, as USD /JPY are proven safe haven.

Also both equities and bond market will have a fund flow reversal as money will leave equities to go to fixed income assets such as fd, treasuries etc while existing bond their prices will go down to reflect a new coupon rate that is in line with the new interest rate.

On flip side for countries with high foreign denominated bond, the increase in interest rate might cause possible default. Such as the 97 crisis.

For fed to raise rate they must do it delicately with a very healthy economy. The last time rate rises too fast in a vibrant market partially contributed to the 08 housing crisis.

You're already kind enough to share your analysis which I (for many too) appreciate a lot

Similarly thanking Boon3 daikor too on the glove redflags before it nosedived

If one never learn/exit from recent capitulation and chased high - you'll forever be food for sharks

Losing money is painful, but not taking away lessons from it doubles the pain

Thanking all contributors here cheers

You are welcomed....


Perhaps this might help in the future.... ask the 'what if' question in depth yourself.

that's all...


for example... on the issue of the glove selling price.

when THEY argued that the selling prices would decline, a lot just brush it off (perhaps being swayed by the popular opinion that these buggers were corrupt. They simply tembak just cos they want to manipulate the sentiments since thy are shorting the stocks and the insane theory they were trying to manipulate the call warrants.

well, the What IF question would have been... 'what if' they were right?

OPR maintain 1.75%

market going to turn green soon

Wasn't it expected?

Not so soon for klse to turn green.
FF is still shy on Malaysia market
Local fund showing sign of exhaustion
Retailer had been beaten down

What is going on to our Bursa? Keep falling like dead flies. My fund all lock inside some stocks already. Cannot play stock anymore....

What price is right?
Let me start the ball rolling -
Harta rm8
Kossan rm2.80
TG rm3.80

All this happened before and will happen again...
BSG: Reimagined.
Now, what to buy tomorrow?

Probably a 1 week fall. U guys jumping right in? I have many stocks waiting to fall to the right price

What IF the glove sectors mirrors what happened post SARS?



Without C19 ... what was the outlook for the glove sector?




p/s .... glove sector so in love you are .....

Not jumping yet, waiting for the price to hit entry level.

Not in love but couldn't resist the temptations of nice dividends 😁

The dividends, based on current prices sure looks nice.

BUT ... that is provided the current prices HOLD.

if the price doesn't hold... whatever dividend you get, cannot cover back the fallen stock price.





Here... I have an old screenshot from a 2019 Kenanga report on rubber gloves



.... you see what I see? or you see only what you want to see?

Have to factor the increase of awareness of the importance of using gloves in developing country. It will increase gloves consumption directly

Just use your calculator and you already know can buy or not.

If ASP start tanking now to below $50, slowly towards $30 around year end, then you can kiss glove goodbye already. It doesnt matter how much capacity you have because when it is all over, there will be tonnes of excess capacity. Just a note, pre covid utilisation rate of most glove makers is just around 60-70%.

Supermax is kinda easy to calculate what. 26b gloves annually... 48b by end of 2022.

Q2 supposedly 26b x $0.09 (USD90 per 1000) x RM4.1 x 1/4 (Q2 2021) = almost RM2.4b
But they reported 2b... ok...maybe like they said, kena close down due to covid not working, so lower output.

Next quarter ASP how much then? if average $80 (since they said January is highest at $90), then

26b x $0.08 x RM4.1 x 1/4 = RM2.13b revenue (wait n see)

If starting 2022 ASP drop to $30 for example

26b x $0.03 x RM4.1 x 1/4 = 800m revenue

Lets said Supermax is really fast and managed to install another 5b capacity in the next 6 months...

31b x $0.03 x RM4.1 x 1/4 = 953m

Profit margin berapa? Most indicator said glove price now = 4x pre covid. Precovid $22.5, profit are shitty. None of them are making a billion a year, let alone a billion a quarter.