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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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andrekua2
post Feb 29 2016, 07:46 PM

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QUOTE(riou666 @ Feb 25 2016, 06:18 PM)
I give up on oil and gas lol. It was not as simple as I thought. Now I'm keeping an eye on thheavy and plantation stock.

I read Thheavy used to be RM 7+, now it's on 15 sen range. This thing happen because of tabung haji 1mdb scandal or because of miss management? Anyone here know anything about this company?
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My uncle went in at RM1... now still holding. Parkson RM3, now <RM1.

He also earned when times were good. So still can tahan.
andrekua2
post Apr 26 2016, 02:55 PM

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QUOTE(TC-Titan @ Apr 26 2016, 02:25 PM)
Sorry boss, didn't notice until after I posted here.
Was informed by my dealer on this. Wasn't expecting the price to gap up and rocket to 1.73.
Those with the insider news were already gathering from 1.35 to 1.40. 
Yeah, just saw the results. Really dramatic.
Heard maybe Insas and KESM might be affected, but not sure if will be as bad as Gtronic.
I saw a illustration graph showing worldwide semicon revenues and their YoY % change.
Really cyclical and the fluctuation (change in results) can be crazy.
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Insas or Inari?

Although Insas still holding substantial amount of Inari shares, I dont think it will be badly reflected.
andrekua2
post May 16 2017, 11:59 PM

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QUOTE(-Aktan- @ May 15 2017, 07:01 AM)
Many counters will rally liao today
Many MOU signed
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I also wonder what's so attractive about Malaysia that China will invest here... still thinking.
andrekua2
post Apr 13 2020, 01:27 PM

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Guys,

Any recommendations for where to open trading account that wont suspend your account every single year?

Got fed up with HLB. Reactivate my account 2 times liao and now suspend again. I dont trade often but was unable to average down during last month because account was suspended plus was being under quarantine.
andrekua2
post Apr 13 2020, 01:34 PM

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QUOTE(MasterConfucion @ Apr 13 2020, 01:32 PM)
What is the reason for suspension?
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Not active. They need one buy/sell per year. This is ridiculous. I have few K inside plus few K in shares. Although I don't trade often, it still sucks.
andrekua2
post Apr 13 2020, 01:45 PM

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QUOTE(MasterConfucion @ Apr 13 2020, 01:42 PM)
Suspend then what happen to your money and shares? Eat by the bank? Ridiculous! Complain to bn
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Unable to trade only. Dividends still get. Interest also get.

Damn lazy to everytime need to go PJ to activate account again. Also wasted an opportunity to average down when they dropped 50% from my buying price and recovered to about 70%.
andrekua2
post Apr 13 2020, 02:00 PM

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QUOTE(!@#$%^ @ Apr 13 2020, 01:54 PM)
no choice, those are the terms and conditions that we have to agree upon signing up for an account
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No other that would offer longer term before being tagged dormant?

Either way I need to move away from HLB. It's just too inconvenient to go to PJ to do this.
andrekua2
post Apr 13 2020, 02:14 PM

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QUOTE(backspace66 @ Apr 13 2020, 02:12 PM)
If i remember correctly, there is no such thing for maybank investment bank, only dormant cds if no transaction for 3 years.
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Ok... will goto maybank to inquire. Used to have an account with them but thought HLB is more convenient because also used to debit salary.
andrekua2
post Apr 14 2020, 01:20 AM

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QUOTE(danielcmugen @ Apr 14 2020, 12:27 AM)
1 year considered good already. RHB tradesmart only allow 6 months.
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Sometimes dont understood what they are thinking.

If you said I never login, suspend is okay. I login few times a year, placed some order, not matched. Still suspend my account.
andrekua2
post Apr 28 2020, 02:19 PM

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It is kinda crazy to see the PER people are paying for their overpriced gloves stock.
andrekua2
post Apr 28 2020, 02:46 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Apr 28 2020, 02:39 PM)
waiting for short selling to be back and hope for a price drop but looks like it won't happen lol
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At first I thought ok, consistent dividend but over the past 2-3 years, gloves stocks are moving nowhere. They just kept going up defying common sense. Hartalega will be around 70PER if they reported another 3.x cents for Q4.

We used to provide materials to contractors for the mechanical structures for some of them. They had slowdown quite a lot over the past few years due to over capacity and pricing wars. Even now with the pandemic, I dont think there will be shortages.
andrekua2
post Apr 28 2020, 03:45 PM

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QUOTE(zstan @ Apr 28 2020, 03:37 PM)
more like FOMO. as long as the pandemic doesn't end glove stock prices should continue to rise. probably will take a hefty dividend pay out for the share price to drop as it would be the new normal with frequent PPE wearing now. with all the profit now they can always diversify to intensify nitrile gloves  production and other forms of PPE. with the oil price crash, theoretically the ingredient price for synthetic rubbers should be much much lower which translates into higher profit margin.
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For nitrile gloves, the raw materials are bought in USD. Therefore the rise in USD should not affect profit margin.

As for natural rubber gloves, competitions are hot.
andrekua2
post Apr 28 2020, 05:22 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 28 2020, 04:33 PM)
No doubt for short term, the demand would be still strong.

But at the sametimes, there are many new gloves factories in the pipeline as well. Many companies have been expanding significantly over the years due to good growth and profit.

Eg. PPE like face mask, its production quantity also increased dramatically globally just within a month or two, we no longer see acute shortage like last month or so.
It is not like supply will be staying stagnant in quantity.

More people will wear face mask, which result more demand but supply also increase in tandem as well.

When an industry is in high demand, and good profit, many others also want to join in the bandwagon as well, not to mention competitors may be expanding rapidly as well.

Near to mid term, prospect still good for those industry, but do not carry away or over-hype.

PPE, healthcare equipment hype may easily a replicate of peak oil (or oil will be always in high demand) hype 12 years ago.
I could be wrong though.
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Actually there's no more expansion from glove sector. Some like Hartalega and Supermax are just doing what they have been planning for years, completing the big upgrade albeit very slowly. We did supply the parts for first 2 factories in Sepang in 2012 IIRC, then the new boss suddenly changed contractor due to some communication issue with my client. It was even more messy with the new contractor and the change in design was so bad that they couldn't keep factory 3&4 running full time. After tiptoe for a year or two, they went back to my client but damage already done. The change in design was permanent since Hartalega already bought the steel material thus no choice but to opt out. Last I heard they were on the way to complete 5&6 which is final completion for Sepang.

Before this, they were considering to refurbish old lines in old factory but even that was scrapped due to forecast lower demand. Personally I dont see a way how gloves would return to those days. The only expansion that you would see is probably from those smaller sized one like Careplus or VIP gloves.

Gloves are still very profitable no doubt, but why would you pay RM7 for Hartalega (example) when you are only getting less than 10cents back in dividends. Its recession proof but other than that, there's no reason to pay a premium for gloves counter when they are all trading at over 30x PER.
andrekua2
post May 18 2020, 06:45 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ May 18 2020, 12:17 PM)
I am not sure about Comfort because I sold it off for around +53% profit. Unless you are following KYY.

Right now it seems to be a play between oil and gas stocks and glove stocks.

I sold off 4 oil and gas stocks for a loss last week i.e. Dayang, Carimin, Velesto and Hibiscus. This morning all the stocks are up between 7% to 21%. In fact, these stocks have been up for the past few days.

It is all a roller coaster ride now.
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Why not keep Comfort?

Comfort would be like what Hartalega is like 12 years ago. Imagine with only 1-2 factories (10 or so high speed lines per factories), with each expansion, you will boost your output between 50-100%. That is growth.

Hartalega, Top Glove, Kossan, Supermax will not have these fairy tales anymore. Yes, they are more established, guaranteed recession proof but I dont expect surprise with the exception of Top Glove due to their no.1 spot of controlling more than 10% of global gloves output.
andrekua2
post May 18 2020, 08:31 PM

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QUOTE(Vanguard 2015 @ May 18 2020, 07:35 PM)
For me, Comfort is just a trading buy. It is a cyclical stock which benefited from Covid-19.

But the biggest turn off for me is because Comfort is now being heavily promoted by KYY. I suspect that is part of the reason for its meteoric rise.

After seeing the spectacular crash of Dayang which was heavily promoted before by KYY and which caused many investors to suffer, it is better to cash out now with a good profit.
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Understood. This uncle really hard promote one.

The earnings are not too bad... need to see the financials. However glovemakers are not easy business nowadays. Back then they were given tax break for 10years IIRC plus subsidized natural gas. A lot has changed in the industry.
andrekua2
post May 18 2020, 11:43 PM

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QUOTE(TechnoG @ May 18 2020, 09:19 PM)
let's all be honest, glove counters are running high on the back of this COVID-19 pandemic. Investors and speculators alike are pricing in the spike in demand for gloves during these tough times.

But, what if say a vaccine is found within one month? Moderna Inc (Nasdaq: MRNA) already up more than 30% pre-market trading as their human trials seems successful.
do you think gloves are as much as in demand during the pre-Covid times? Probably QR can sustain the sky high valuation for another year before reality hits.

I am all in for short term holding and riding the goreng train. Long term view I will definitely put it as overpriced due to the PE ratio but I could be wrong if COVID-22 hits us in the future  tongue.gif
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Glove memang high demand whether or not pandemic. It's just that there's over capacity at this moment. Hence why I would pay attention to newcomers instead. What I would be concerned is the profitability since bigger ones would have more room and war chest to price war.

Like I said smaller ones capacity upgrade would increase output by 50-100% which could make it reasonable to buy slightly more expensive but bigger ones, capacity upgrade would only increase output by 5-10% which wouldn't mean much. Instead these would benefits more from USDMYR fluctuation.
andrekua2
post May 18 2020, 11:48 PM

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QUOTE(thesnake @ May 18 2020, 11:24 PM)
well, our fav uncle KYY have been promoting supermax also , and look at its price now.
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Supermax is too expensive. Bad management, high borrowing (to be honest, it's been a long time since I looked at Supermax financial, therefore I could be wrong). I think uncle is goreng cheaper ones. Supermax was below RM2 IIRC when the rally began. Harta, TG, Kossan maybe too costly and lower returns for him.
andrekua2
post Jun 11 2020, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Jun 11 2020, 02:50 PM)
anyone know the minimum computer specification to support the website load? just now topglove hang until my screen stuck stuck one.
using i5 and ssd here
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Not your problem... it was too frantic just now
andrekua2
post Jun 11 2020, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(theberry @ Jun 11 2020, 03:01 PM)
using hlebroking also but computer ram will slowly hit high then need to restart browser. is it normal?
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No wonder...

I have to say hlebroking is the lousiest to use. I also having problem login from my phone lately.
andrekua2
post Jul 17 2020, 09:09 AM

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LoL guys... Careful if using HLEbroking


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