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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V150

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icemanfx
post Dec 29 2020, 06:10 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Dec 29 2020, 05:48 PM)
I am not that old to be called as unker. 😅

Previously, I saw a lot of people who bought gloves based on fundamental, at the start they say they buy to hold long term. Until recently, they started to panic. They started to lose trust in fundamental. But they didn’t realize that their mindset deep down is they buy for momentum trade instead of fundamental as claimed by them.

Buy and hold is easy to say. But it’s very hard to do. Buy and hold is when you see price drop after you bought, you will be even happier. Not many understand the deep meaning of it.

Therefore I think anyone who participated fully in a full glove cycle, they can understand themselves more what they actually want. This is a super good case to learn from as it involved many aspect for education purpose such as temporary cyclical nature shift, explosive growth, warrants effect, short selling effect, IB report effect, news effect, sharp surge and sharp drop of price, financial report effect, SBB effect, government budget effect, etc.

anyway, if anyone can’t sleep at night cause of worry, better surrender and sell to the IB. Sleep is more important.

Cheers!
*
It seems before covid19 pandemic, banks were reluctant to lend to gloves manufacturers.
SUSNew Klang
post Dec 29 2020, 06:14 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 29 2020, 06:00 PM)
The other elephant in the room is... Mr. Bond, who has been fairly quiet so far..... except in Sep.

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3087833
user posted image

Back in 2019, TopGlove raised money via exchangeable bond....

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-...hangeable-bonds

Quote: “The bonds may be exchanged into new Top Glove shares at the option of the bondholders during the exchange period. The initial exchange ratio shall be 656.0767 Top Glove shares per US$1,000 in principal amount of the bonds

So 2,005,073 new shares listed.
Their cost price is 2.03 !!!!!

And just a couple days earlier, Top Glove on 9/11 splashed 99.972 million buying back (or in my opinion, goreng up their shares from 6.20 to 8.00

The exchangeable bond which were converted into shares were listed on 15th Sep.
Top Glove shares closed at 8.58 the previous day.
That should be worth more than 17 million ringgit.
The cost is about 4 million
The elephant is... how many bond shares are out there?

Their cost is only 2.03...

What's stopping them from packing up and go?
Here's how many...

Because of the recent bonus issue, these bonds are granted bonus shares too...

Source

user posted image

Max scenario of the bond conversion is 20.249 million new shares...
*cough'
*
I am noob and need to ask.

How is the valuation at 2.03 reached? Why need to borrow when it has lots of cash in hand at that time?

AVFAN
post Dec 29 2020, 06:30 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Dec 29 2020, 05:34 PM)
Tomorrow is T+2 from yesterday.

If market opens down, those contra will sell to cut loss.

If market opens up, those contra will sell to take profit

Dunno whether Santa will buy up the stocks higher
*
there is a T+2 everyday! biggrin.gif

i actually think weak retailers have butted out already... the stronger ones may hold a bit longer.

the main battles now are for big retailers, IB's, EPF and maybe some foreign funds.

QUOTE(skty @ Dec 29 2020, 05:48 PM)
Therefore I think anyone who participated fully in a full glove cycle, they can understand themselves more what they actually want. This is a super good case to learn from as it involved many aspect for education purpose such as temporary cyclical nature shift, explosive growth, warrants effect, short selling effect, IB report effect, news effect, sharp surge and sharp drop of price, financial report effect, SBB effect, government budget effect, etc.

anyway, if anyone can’t sleep at night cause of worry, better surrender and sell to the IB. Sleep is more important.

Cheers!
*
add infected workers, shutdown, fines, probes, US ban, 100 vaccines...

maybe, just maybe, some spark may come out of this as there is still an acute shortage of gloves for... 12, 24 months?

QUOTE
"You will see him invoking the Defense Production Act," Dr. Celine Gounder, who's on Biden's COVID-19 advisory board, told CNBC on Monday. "The idea there is to make sure the personal protective equipment, the test capacity and the raw materials for the vaccines are produced in adequate supply."
https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-will-...-supply-2020-12


Boon3
post Dec 29 2020, 06:43 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Dec 29 2020, 06:14 PM)
I am noob and need to ask.

How is the valuation at 2.03 reached? Why need to borrow when it has lots of cash in hand at that time?
*
Frankly I have no idea.

2019? Top Glove wasn't that cash rich plus at that time, it was made a laughing stock due to its extremely controversial acquisition of Aspion gloves...
statikinetic
post Dec 29 2020, 06:47 PM

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It's impossible not to talk about gloves, and TG in particular, after today's cliffhanger closing. TG looks the bigger risk of a sub RM6 opening.

Tomorrow get yourself a cup of coffee and tune in to the 9am opening show.

Boon3, thanks for the bond info. Didn't know they had that active. Yes, that was pre-Covid so that's another era.

Boon3
post Dec 29 2020, 06:50 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 29 2020, 06:47 PM)
It's impossible not to talk about gloves, and TG in particular, after today's cliffhanger closing. TG looks the bigger risk of a sub RM6 opening.

Tomorrow get yourself a cup of coffee and tune in to the 9am opening show.

Boon3, thanks for the bond info. Didn't know they had that active. Yes, that was pre-Covid so that's another era.
*
You are welcome. The risk to the stock in current situation is that these bond holders might actually convert and take profit.
Boon3
post Dec 29 2020, 06:52 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 29 2020, 06:47 PM)

Boon3, thanks for the bond info. Didn't know they had that active. Yes, that was pre-Covid so that's another era.
*
Btw 2 reading articles

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/turk...-buyers-remorse

https://newmalaysiatimes.com/2020/02/19/top...areholders/amp/
SUSNew Klang
post Dec 29 2020, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 29 2020, 06:43 PM)
Frankly I have no idea.

2019? Top Glove wasn't that cash rich plus at that time, it was made a laughing stock due to its extremely controversial acquisition of Aspion gloves...
*
Thanks for the information. You really go through TG thoroughly.


QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 29 2020, 06:47 PM)
It's impossible not to talk about gloves, and TG in particular, after today's cliffhanger closing. TG looks the bigger risk of a sub RM6 opening.

Tomorrow get yourself a cup of coffee and tune in to the 9am opening show.

Boon3, thanks for the bond info. Didn't know they had that active. Yes, that was pre-Covid so that's another era.
*
Seen the powers all through the day.
Noticable ones are:-
Around 4.30 pm today, it was seen that someone with lots of stocks keeps throwing down to breach the rm6 level. Firewall at rm6 with 6m buying.

Before the 4.45pm price lock, there was a mini battle
to lock between 6.01-6.02 vs 6.02-6.03.
Boon3
post Dec 29 2020, 07:02 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Dec 29 2020, 06:56 PM)
Thanks for the information. You really go through TG thoroughly.
Seen the powers all through the day.
Noticable ones are:-
Around 4.30 pm today, it was seen that someone with lots of stocks keeps throwing down to breach the rm6 level. Firewall at rm6 with 6m buying.

Before the 4.45pm price lock, there was a mini battle
to lock between 6.01-6.02 vs 6.02-6.03.
*
Noted the bond conversion when I was making the table to track current Topglove buybacks.
Boon3
post Dec 29 2020, 07:05 PM

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New Klang

Found it...

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/top-...nds-rm203-rm610
SunBear1999
post Dec 29 2020, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(New Klang @ Dec 29 2020, 06:56 PM)
Thanks for the information. You really go through TG thoroughly.
Seen the powers all through the day.
Noticable ones are:-
Around 4.30 pm today, it was seen that someone with lots of stocks keeps throwing down to breach the rm6 level. Firewall at rm6 with 6m buying.

Before the 4.45pm price lock, there was a mini battle
to lock between 6.01-6.02 vs 6.02-6.03.
*

I saw it too, last minute before closing.
SUSNew Klang
post Dec 29 2020, 07:09 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Dec 29 2020, 07:05 PM)
Thanks a lot

That's more learning for me to do

So the revised valuation was about guarantee?

6.10 divided by 3.
skty
post Dec 29 2020, 07:10 PM

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QUOTE(ChAOoz @ Dec 29 2020, 05:33 PM)
Glove idk man. It feels like a cyclical, act like a cyclical, most probably will end up like a cyclical. Single digit P/E is very common of cyclicals stock.

As for baba it is already up 3%+ pre-market, and i have loaded up on it by a lot this pass two days. I don't wish for it to drop further lol.

China ecommerce marketplace is still superior imo, even the seller there are faster, more aggressive and more customer oriented as compared to Amazon.
*
It is currently a cyclical stock due to pandemic. The magical chair will end one day. No doubt about it.

For gloves, should start to sell when the PE is the lowest, not highest.

For Alibaba case, core business not affected, buy on cheap.

QUOTE(New Klang @ Dec 29 2020, 05:36 PM)
Follow you to aim below 6
*
I was hoping for JPMorgan's magic of RM3.50. At least RM4.50?

So you have to split your fund into batches where the least percentage allocated to the range close to RM6.

I am expecting rebound at June 2020 high. Whether after rebound to RM6.xx will continue to surge or drop, you have to strategies your fund allocation accordingly.

QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2020, 06:30 PM)
add infected workers, shutdown, fines, probes, US ban, 100 vaccines...

maybe, just maybe, some spark may come out of this as there is still an acute shortage of gloves for... 12, 24 months?
*
ya. those are news effect.

actually there is no doubt of glove business is going to remain strong 2021, 2022, 2023. Beyond 2023, may need data from MAGMA.

apart from funds controlling short term valuation, the valuation also is subject to relative measures of the choice of investment/storehold of wealth available.

it's the same reason why Bitcoin surges so high lately.

for trading, even rubbish business also can goreng. So it doesn't matter to trader.
nauticat99
post Dec 29 2020, 07:11 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2020, 05:33 PM)
that, i agree.

if it goes below 6, all hell may break lose.

there was an attempt at about 4.30pm - a couple of million shares thrown at 6.00 but the wall of 6 million blocked it.

i wud think if there's anyone trying to break below 6, it will be EPF as they still hold >400mil shares.

so, gud luk to all if EPF wanna do that.
*
So it looks like even with LWC sitting on the EPF board doesn't spare his company from EPF sell down? Fair with no vested interest.
pinksapphire
post Dec 29 2020, 07:16 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Dec 29 2020, 05:48 PM)
I am not that old to be called as unker. 😅

Previously, I saw a lot of people who bought gloves based on fundamental, at the start they say they buy to hold long term. Until recently, they started to panic. They started to lose trust in fundamental. But they didn’t realize that their mindset deep down is they buy for momentum trade instead of fundamental as claimed by them.

Buy and hold is easy to say. But it’s very hard to do. Buy and hold is when you see price drop after you bought, you will be even happier. Not many understand the deep meaning of it.

Therefore I think anyone who participated fully in a full glove cycle, they can understand themselves more what they actually want. This is a super good case to learn from as it involved many aspect for education purpose such as temporary cyclical nature shift, explosive growth, warrants effect, short selling effect, IB report effect, news effect, sharp surge and sharp drop of price, financial report effect, SBB effect, government budget effect, etc.

anyway, if anyone can’t sleep at night cause of worry, better surrender and sell to the IB. Sleep is more important.

Cheers!
*
True. I think the reason for losing trust, and faith in long term is that the super strong fundamentals with gloves was proven/looks like to be worthless/illogical based on current share price performance. I think those who said this have sold off all their stocks by now, eventhough they were the most convincing to tell you "look at the fundamentals!! won't die one, okie" in the beginning.

This is a great lesson to be learnt, as deep meaning requires more than just technicality of things. It also predominantly lies on who you are as a person, and from this experience, you learn best about yourself. I am guilty of being as quoted in the former, but will keep building my mentality to live up as a real long term investor.

Thanks for this as always.

On the side, now contemplating to add more funds if Smax goes below 6 tomorrow, lol
AVFAN
post Dec 29 2020, 07:27 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Dec 29 2020, 07:10 PM)
for trading, even rubbish business also can goreng. So it doesn't matter to trader.
*
biggrin.gif that, we see everyday in bursa... there's always some people stranded in penthouses.

all bourses... nyse too.. moderna with its vaccine lost 30% from peak, will lose another 4-5% tonight... what happened?!!
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRNA?p=MRNA

QUOTE(nauticat99 @ Dec 29 2020, 07:11 PM)
So it looks like even with LWC sitting on the EPF board doesn't spare his company from EPF sell down? Fair with no vested interest.
*
that's the burden of sitting in EPF.

when EPF buy "yours", tongues wag.

when EPF sell, nobody notice. biggrin.gif

EPF's TG stake is now down to 5.11 as of 23 dec.
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3117226

big question is if they will sell down to <5% to quit as substantial shareholder.
skty
post Dec 29 2020, 07:32 PM

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QUOTE(pinksapphire @ Dec 29 2020, 07:16 PM)
True. I think the reason for losing trust, and faith in long term is that the super strong fundamentals with gloves was proven/looks like to be worthless/illogical based on current share price performance. I think those who said this have sold off all their stocks by now, eventhough they were the most convincing to tell you "look at the fundamentals!! won't die one, okie" in the beginning.

This is a great lesson to be learnt, as deep meaning requires more than just technicality of things. It also predominantly lies on who you are as a person, and from this experience, you learn best about yourself. I am guilty of being as quoted in the former, but will keep building my mentality to live up as a real long term investor.

Thanks for this as always.

On the side, now contemplating to add more funds if Smax goes below 6 tomorrow, lol
*
or you can consider the alternative way which doesn't need you to add more funds into it.

set an alert of the price that you target to sell and then don't look at Bursa.

it will alert you when the price rebound back.

this method cannot apply to goreng stock. tongue.gif


QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2020, 07:27 PM)
EPF's TG stake is now down to 5.11 as of 23 dec.
https://www.bursamalaysia.com/market_inform...?ann_id=3117226

big question is if they will sell down to <5% to quit as substantial shareholder.
*
cannot track the SS anymore if <5% dry.gif
AVFAN
post Dec 29 2020, 07:33 PM

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QUOTE(skty @ Dec 29 2020, 07:32 PM)
or you can consider the alternative way which doesn't need you to add more funds into it.

set an alert of the price that you target to sell and then don't look at Bursa.

it will alert you when the price rebound back.

this method cannot apply to goreng stock. tongue.gif
cannot track the SS anymore if <5%  dry.gif
*
that's true.

but from below, it is no longer a big issue.

not sure what else to make of it...?

https://www.bursamalaysia.com/misc/missftp/...End20201228.pdf
statikinetic
post Dec 29 2020, 07:38 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 29 2020, 07:27 PM)
big question is if they will sell down to <5% to quit as substantial shareholder.
*
Being that close to the 5% mark, they just need to trim 0.12% to go below.
It would look good on their ESG commitments. And get a pesky indicator off their back. Bigger upsides to maintaining it.

AVFAN
post Dec 29 2020, 07:46 PM

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QUOTE(statikinetic @ Dec 29 2020, 07:38 PM)
Being that close to the 5% mark, they just need to trim 0.12% to go below.
It would look good on their ESG commitments. And get a pesky indicator off their back. Bigger upsides to maintaining it.
*
likely they will do that not to set more tongues wagging... will be no surprise.

the other question is whether TG can finally get the US CBP lifted... been >5 months now.

if that happens, will EPF quickly buy back to >6%?! biggrin.gif

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